Week ahead Frozen each Sunday evening — times in London.
as of 3 days ago
The week turns on Friday 28 Aug — Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks + Prelim Benchmark Payrolls Revision within an hour; 4 high-impact releases in all.
HIGH-IMPACT THIS WEEK
Wed 13:30 high Core PCE Price Index m/m US
Exp: 0.2% Prev: 0.1%
S&P 500 Gold Euro
Wed 13:30 high Prelim GDP q/q US
Exp: 1.5% Prev: 1.5%
A growth reading — the broadest gauge of the economy's momentum.
S&P 500 Gold Euro
Fri 15:00 high Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks US
Federal Reserve policy communication — the primary channel for the US policy-path driver.
S&P 500 Gold Euro
Fri 15:00 high Prelim Benchmark Payrolls Revision US
Prev: -911K
A labour-market reading — feeds the employment/labour-slack driver and rate-path expectations.
S&P 500 Gold Euro
CENTRAL BANKS
European Central Bank 2.25% Thursday 10 Sept
CALENDAR
Monday 24 Aug 1 release
19:00 medium Treasury Sec Bessent Speaks US
Tuesday 25 Aug 1 release
15:00 medium CB Consumer Confidence US
A survey-based confidence gauge — a forward-looking sentiment signal, not a hard data point.
Wednesday 26 Aug 3 releases · 2 high
13:30 high Core PCE Price Index m/m US
13:30 high Prelim GDP q/q US
A growth reading — the broadest gauge of the economy's momentum.
13:30 medium Prelim GDP Price Index q/q US
A growth reading — the broadest gauge of the economy's momentum.
Thursday 27 Aug 1 release
13:30 medium Initial Jobless Claims US
A labour-market reading — feeds the employment/labour-slack driver and rate-path expectations.
Friday 28 Aug 4 releases · 2 high
15:00 high Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks US
Federal Reserve policy communication — the primary channel for the US policy-path driver.
15:00 high Prelim Benchmark Payrolls Revision US
A labour-market reading — feeds the employment/labour-slack driver and rate-path expectations.
15:00 medium Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment US
A survey-based confidence gauge — a forward-looking sentiment signal, not a hard data point.
15:00 medium Revised UoM Inflation Expectations US
An inflation reading — transmits to rate-sensitive assets through the real-yield and policy-path channels.
YOUR TRACKED ASSETS
RECENT DRIVER
Equities extended their gains, supported by a general improvement in risk appetite and corporate earnings optimism.
DOMESTIC CATALYST
Prelim GDP q/q
Wed 13:30 high Exp: 1.5% · Prev: 1.5%
What it measures: A growth reading — the broadest gauge of the economy's momentum.
CROSS CATALYST
Fed Chairman Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole
KEY DATES
Monday 24 Aug
19:00 medium Treasury Sec Bessent Speaks US
Tuesday 25 Aug
15:00 medium CB Consumer Confidence US
Wednesday 26 Aug
13:30 high Core PCE Price Index m/m US
13:30 high Prelim GDP q/q US
13:30 medium Prelim GDP Price Index q/q US
Thursday 27 Aug
13:30 medium Unemployment Claims US
Friday 28 Aug
15:00 high Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks US
15:00 high Prelim Benchmark Payrolls Revision US
15:00 medium Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment US
15:00 medium Revised UoM Inflation Expectations US
STATE OF PLAY
Tightening bias. Energy/Iran shock drove HICP to 3.2% (May) and core to 2.5%; staff revised inflation up. Markets price ~50% odds of a further hike in September. A durable energy-price retreat would stay the hand.
European Central Bank · 2.25%
Next decision: Sep 10 · in 15 days
RECENT DRIVER
The pair traded near 1.1678, reflecting broad US Dollar weakness and a slight recovery in Euro sentiment.
CROSS CATALYST
US Dollar Broad Trade-Weighted Index (Fed TWI) declined
KEY DATES
Monday 24 Aug
19:00 medium Treasury Sec Bessent Speaks US
Tuesday 25 Aug
15:00 medium CB Consumer Confidence US
Wednesday 26 Aug
13:30 high Core PCE Price Index m/m US
13:30 high Prelim GDP q/q US
13:30 medium Prelim GDP Price Index q/q US
Thursday 27 Aug
13:30 medium Unemployment Claims US
Friday 28 Aug
15:00 high Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks US
15:00 high Prelim Benchmark Payrolls Revision US
15:00 medium Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment US
15:00 medium Revised UoM Inflation Expectations US
RECENT DRIVER
The precious metal rallied significantly, driven by its safe-haven appeal and a weakening US Dollar.
CROSS CATALYST
US Dollar Broad Trade-Weighted Index (Fed TWI) declined
KEY DATES
Monday 24 Aug
19:00 medium Treasury Sec Bessent Speaks US
Tuesday 25 Aug
15:00 medium CB Consumer Confidence US
Wednesday 26 Aug
13:30 high Core PCE Price Index m/m US
13:30 high Prelim GDP q/q US
13:30 medium Prelim GDP Price Index q/q US
Thursday 27 Aug
13:30 medium Unemployment Claims US
Friday 28 Aug
15:00 high Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks US
15:00 high Prelim Benchmark Payrolls Revision US
15:00 medium Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment US
15:00 medium Revised UoM Inflation Expectations US
From this week's engine snapshot.
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