Week ahead

Frozen each Sunday evening — times in London.

The week turns on Friday 28 Aug — Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks + Prelim Benchmark Payrolls Revision within an hour; 4 high-impact releases in all.

HIGH-IMPACT THIS WEEK

Wed 13:30highCore PCE Price Index m/mUS
Exp: 0.2%Prev: 0.1%
S&P 500GoldEuro
Wed 13:30highPrelim GDP q/qUS
Exp: 1.5%Prev: 1.5%

A growth reading — the broadest gauge of the economy's momentum.

S&P 500GoldEuro
Fri 15:00highFed Chairman Warsh SpeaksUS

Federal Reserve policy communication — the primary channel for the US policy-path driver.

S&P 500GoldEuro
Fri 15:00highPrelim Benchmark Payrolls RevisionUS
Prev: -911K

A labour-market reading — feeds the employment/labour-slack driver and rate-path expectations.

S&P 500GoldEuro

CENTRAL BANKS

European Central Bank2.25%Thursday 10 Sept

CALENDAR

Monday 24 Aug1 release
19:00mediumTreasury Sec Bessent SpeaksUS
Tuesday 25 Aug1 release
15:00mediumCB Consumer ConfidenceUS

A survey-based confidence gauge — a forward-looking sentiment signal, not a hard data point.

Wednesday 26 Aug3 releases · 2 high
13:30highCore PCE Price Index m/mUS
13:30highPrelim GDP q/qUS

A growth reading — the broadest gauge of the economy's momentum.

13:30mediumPrelim GDP Price Index q/qUS

A growth reading — the broadest gauge of the economy's momentum.

Thursday 27 Aug1 release
13:30mediumInitial Jobless ClaimsUS

A labour-market reading — feeds the employment/labour-slack driver and rate-path expectations.

Friday 28 Aug4 releases · 2 high
15:00highFed Chairman Warsh SpeaksUS

Federal Reserve policy communication — the primary channel for the US policy-path driver.

15:00highPrelim Benchmark Payrolls RevisionUS

A labour-market reading — feeds the employment/labour-slack driver and rate-path expectations.

15:00mediumRevised UoM Consumer SentimentUS

A survey-based confidence gauge — a forward-looking sentiment signal, not a hard data point.

15:00mediumRevised UoM Inflation ExpectationsUS

An inflation reading — transmits to rate-sensitive assets through the real-yield and policy-path channels.

YOUR TRACKED ASSETS

RECENT DRIVER

Equities extended their gains, supported by a general improvement in risk appetite and corporate earnings optimism.

DOMESTIC CATALYST

Prelim GDP q/q

Wed 13:30highExp: 1.5% · Prev: 1.5%

What it measures: A growth reading — the broadest gauge of the economy's momentum.

CROSS CATALYST

Fed Chairman Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole

KEY DATES

Monday 24 Aug

19:00mediumTreasury Sec Bessent SpeaksUS

Tuesday 25 Aug

15:00mediumCB Consumer ConfidenceUS

Wednesday 26 Aug

13:30highCore PCE Price Index m/mUS
13:30highPrelim GDP q/qUS
13:30mediumPrelim GDP Price Index q/qUS

Thursday 27 Aug

13:30mediumUnemployment ClaimsUS

Friday 28 Aug

15:00highFed Chairman Warsh SpeaksUS
15:00highPrelim Benchmark Payrolls RevisionUS
15:00mediumRevised UoM Consumer SentimentUS
15:00mediumRevised UoM Inflation ExpectationsUS

STATE OF PLAY

Tightening bias. Energy/Iran shock drove HICP to 3.2% (May) and core to 2.5%; staff revised inflation up. Markets price ~50% odds of a further hike in September. A durable energy-price retreat would stay the hand.

European Central Bank · 2.25%

Next decision: Sep 10 · in 15 days

RECENT DRIVER

The pair traded near 1.1678, reflecting broad US Dollar weakness and a slight recovery in Euro sentiment.

CROSS CATALYST

US Dollar Broad Trade-Weighted Index (Fed TWI) declined

KEY DATES

Monday 24 Aug

19:00mediumTreasury Sec Bessent SpeaksUS

Tuesday 25 Aug

15:00mediumCB Consumer ConfidenceUS

Wednesday 26 Aug

13:30highCore PCE Price Index m/mUS
13:30highPrelim GDP q/qUS
13:30mediumPrelim GDP Price Index q/qUS

Thursday 27 Aug

13:30mediumUnemployment ClaimsUS

Friday 28 Aug

15:00highFed Chairman Warsh SpeaksUS
15:00highPrelim Benchmark Payrolls RevisionUS
15:00mediumRevised UoM Consumer SentimentUS
15:00mediumRevised UoM Inflation ExpectationsUS

RECENT DRIVER

The precious metal rallied significantly, driven by its safe-haven appeal and a weakening US Dollar.

CROSS CATALYST

US Dollar Broad Trade-Weighted Index (Fed TWI) declined

KEY DATES

Monday 24 Aug

19:00mediumTreasury Sec Bessent SpeaksUS

Tuesday 25 Aug

15:00mediumCB Consumer ConfidenceUS

Wednesday 26 Aug

13:30highCore PCE Price Index m/mUS
13:30highPrelim GDP q/qUS
13:30mediumPrelim GDP Price Index q/qUS

Thursday 27 Aug

13:30mediumUnemployment ClaimsUS

Friday 28 Aug

15:00highFed Chairman Warsh SpeaksUS
15:00highPrelim Benchmark Payrolls RevisionUS
15:00mediumRevised UoM Consumer SentimentUS
15:00mediumRevised UoM Inflation ExpectationsUS

From this week's engine snapshot.