Showing the New York session
Where we are
Gold is trading at 4620.5, down 0.82% on the day. This move represents a pullback from earlier highs that pushed above $4,700, as noted by Yahoo Finance overnight. The current price action suggests a reversal of any early session strength, with the precious metal now firmly in negative territory for Wednesday's trading.
What's driving it
The primary driver for Gold today is the movement in US real yields, which have been falling and providing a tailwind. The US 10Y Real Yield (TIPS) is currently at 2.38%, having fallen 2.0 basis points on Tuesday. This decline in real rates, a key determinant for gold's attractiveness, is being supported by a broader softening in nominal US Treasury yields, with the 10Y yield down 17 basis points today. While the 10-year breakeven inflation rate remains stable at 2.32%, the real yield component is clearly dictating the precious metal's direction.
US 10Y Real Yields are falling, currently at 2.38% (-2.0bp d/d), a clear tailwind for gold.
The Federal Reserve's discount rate meeting minutes from July 20 and July 29 were released yesterday, offering no significant new insights into monetary policy direction.
Speculative positioning shows net non-commercials are moderately long Gold, with 222,189 contracts, representing 54.7% of open interest, indicating some room for further adjustments.
VS YESTERDAY
Gold is trading at 4620.5, down 0.82% on the day. This move represents a pullback from earlier highs that pushed above $4,700, as noted by Yahoo Finance overnight. The current price action suggests a reversal of any early session strength, with the precious metal now firmly in negative territory for Wednesday's trading.
NY session watch
The New York session opens with three high-impact US economic data releases already in the books: Core PCE Price Index m/m, Prelim GDP q/q, and Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, all at 08:30 ET. While the actual figures are not available, the market's reaction to these prints will confirm or challenge the prevailing narrative driven by real yields. The Fed minutes, released yesterday, provided little fresh impetus, meaning the focus will be squarely on how the market interprets the economic data's implications for future Fed policy and inflation. The biggest risk to the current narrative is a significant upside surprise in the released GDP or PCE data, which could swiftly reverse the decline in real yields and put renewed pressure on gold.
TODAY'S EVENTS
HEADLINES
No headlines for this asset's blocks.