Showing the New York session
Where we are
The S&P 500 futures are trading near 7689.00, down 0.04% for the session, while the cash index sits at 7677.28, up 0.32% from yesterday's close. This leaves the index hovering just below its overnight high, indicating a slight pullback in early New York trading after a broadly positive Asian and European session.
What's driving it
The S&P 500's resilience is being tested by the aftermath of the 08:30 ET economic data releases. While Prelim GDP q/q and Prelim GDP Price Index q/q have printed, the market is digesting these alongside the Federal Reserve's discount rate meeting minutes from July 20 and July 29, released yesterday evening. The minutes provided a snapshot of the Board's deliberations, offering insight into their thinking around monetary policy, which continues to anchor domestic market sentiment. This domestic focus is paramount, even as the USD Trade-Weighted Broad Index holds steady and US yields show a mixed picture, with the 10Y yield down 4.0bp yesterday and the 2s10s spread widening slightly.
The Federal Reserve's discount rate meeting minutes from July 20 and July 29, 2026, are the primary domestic signal, providing context for the Fed's policy stance.
The 08:30 ET releases of Prelim GDP q/q and Prelim GDP Price Index q/q have occurred, injecting a fresh data point into the market's assessment of US economic momentum.
Speculative positioning in S&P 500 futures shows net non-commercials modestly short at -10,560 contracts, representing -0.5% of open interest, a level that could amplify any significant market move.
VS YESTERDAY
The S&P 500 futures are trading near 7689.00, down 0.04% for the session, while the cash index sits at 7677.28, up 0.32% from yesterday's close. This leaves the index hovering just below its overnight high, indicating a slight pullback in early New York trading after a broadly positive Asian and European session.
NY session watch
With the key 08:30 ET data already released, the New York session will be focused on how market participants interpret these figures in conjunction with the Fed minutes. The absence of further high-impact US data until later in the week means that the market's reaction to the already-printed GDP and PCE data, filtered through the lens of the Fed's internal discussions, will dominate. The VIX, which ticked up 4.76% yesterday, remains a key indicator of underlying sentiment. The biggest risk to the prevailing narrative is a significant divergence between the market's interpretation of the Fed minutes and the implications of the released GDP and PCE data, potentially leading to a reassessment of the growth and inflation outlook.
TODAY'S EVENTS
HEADLINES
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