Showing the New York session
SPX
Next analysis lands in 6 hours.
Where we are
The S&P 500 futures are trading up 0.39% at 7847.00, a notable rebound from the cash index's 0.47% decline to 7765.36 yesterday. This divergence suggests a more constructive sentiment building into the New York open, potentially shaking off some of the overnight weakness seen in Asian and European markets, which broadly posted gains of around 1% to 1.8%. The futures are currently trading above yesterday's New York close.
What's driving it
The dominant driver this morning remains the implications of Fed Governor Waller's speech yesterday on "The Signaling Value of the Summary of Economic Projections." While Waller's remarks are dated, their interpretation is still filtering through, particularly concerning the Fed's forward guidance and the market's pricing of future rate hikes or cuts. This domestic narrative is amplified by a mixed US yield picture, with the 2-year yield down 2bp to 4.77% while the 10-year and real yields have edged up, creating a slight headwind for gold and potentially dampening enthusiasm for risk assets. The USD TWI's modest decline of 0.33% yesterday offers some relief, but the broader dollar strength narrative isn't entirely broken.
Fed Governor Waller's speech yesterday, focusing on the SEP's signaling value, is the primary catalyst shaping expectations for Fed policy path.
US 10Y Real Yields have ticked up to 2.92% (+1.0bp d/d), creating a subtle headwind for inflation-sensitive assets and potentially gold.
Net non-commercial positioning in S&P 500 futures shows a moderately short stance at -142,499 contracts, which is at the 37th percentile for the 52-week window, indicating some room for short covering if sentiment shifts.
VS PREVIOUS SESSION
Notable rebound from yesterday's decline. Trading above yesterday's close.
NY session watch
The 10:00 ET release of the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data will be the key domestic event to watch in the New York session. These figures will offer a crucial read on the consumer's view of the economy and their inflation outlook, potentially confirming or challenging the market's current pricing of Fed policy. If sentiment deteriorates significantly and inflation expectations remain sticky or rise, it could reinforce concerns about the Fed's ability to pivot, aligning with any hawkish undertones from Waller's speech. Conversely, a stronger sentiment print could provide a boost. The biggest risk to the prevailing narrative today is a surprisingly strong consumer sentiment print that suggests underlying economic resilience, which could override concerns about Fed signaling and support a broader risk rally.
TODAY'S EVENTS
HEADLINES
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