Showing the New York session
EUR/USD
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Where we are
EUR/USD is trading at 1.1201, down 0.13% on the day. This move represents a continuation of the overnight weakness, pushing the pair lower from its previous New York close. The intraday range has been relatively tight so far, but the bias is clearly to the downside.
What's driving it
The confirmation of the European Central Bank's decision to hold the Deposit Facility Rate at 2.50% yesterday, following a previous hold at 2.25% in September, is the primary anchor for the Euro's current weakness. This static stance, while expected, provides no fresh impetus for upside. Adding to the pressure, news wires are highlighting concerns from Nobel laureate Paul Krugman that France may be facing an "ugly crisis," a sentiment echoed by former ECB head Jean-Claude Trichet calling for political compromise. This sovereign-specific stress is weighing on the single currency, amplified by a rising US Dollar Index (DXY) at 102.24 and firmer US Treasury yields, particularly the 5Y and 10Y, which are up 0.20% and 0.17% respectively.
ECB Deposit Facility Rate held at 2.50% (confirmed 2026-10-08).
News reports highlight Nobel winner Krugman's concerns about France facing an "ugly crisis."
Speculator positioning shows a crowded short stance in EUR futures, with net non-commercial contracts at -63,256, representing -7.4% of open interest, signalling squeeze risk on any positive surprise.
VS PREVIOUS SESSION
Continuation of overnight weakness.
NY session watch
The New York session will be looking for direction from US data, specifically the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations at 10:00 ET. While these are medium-impact events, any significant deviation from the forecast 47.5 for sentiment or a shift in inflation expectations could influence the broader USD trend, which in turn will impact EUR/USD. The market will also be digesting the implications of the French sovereign stress narrative, which has emerged as a significant overhang. The biggest risk to the prevailing narrative today would be a surprisingly strong US data print that forces a rapid repricing of Fed policy expectations, potentially overriding the Eurozone-specific headwinds.
TODAY'S EVENTS
HEADLINES
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