Category: Global

  • BTCUSD Vulnerable Below 68,000 as ETF Flows Slow – Thursday, 21 May

    Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading around $67,850, testing the lower end of its recent range. Overnight action saw BTC briefly dip below $67,500 before a slight bounce. This level represents a key area of support, with the next major level down around $66,000. BTC closed yesterday’s NY session near $68,200.

    What’s driving it: Bitcoin’s price action is currently weighed down by softer spot ETF inflows and balanced Binance funding rates, suggesting a lack of strong conviction amongst leveraged traders. The fact that funding remains balanced even as price tests the lows suggests the market is content to fade rallies. More broadly, the rising US 10Y real yield is creating a headwind for risk assets and precious metals, translating into some risk aversion here, as well. The modest non-commercial net-long positioning implies limited squeeze risk even if price reverses.

    • Binance BTCUSDT perp funding at a neutral 0.0063% per 8h.
    • US 10Y Real Yield is up 5bp d/d to 2.18%, creating headwinds for gold and BTC.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial Bitcoin positioning at a moderately long 5.3% of open interest.

    NY session focus: The 08:30 ET release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims will be closely watched for signals on the US economy’s strength. Focus will be on whether a weak print fuels a risk-on bid and a short squeeze in BTC. Keep an eye on $68,500 as the first key level to break for bulls; below $67,500 opens a test of $66,000. The DDC purchase of 200 BTC is a minor positive but unlikely to be a major driver. The pain trade is a sustained break above $70,000, squeezing shorts and reigniting bullish sentiment.

  • WTI Faces Pressure as Supply Concerns Ease – Thursday, 21 May

    Snapshot: WTI crude futures are trading tentatively around $100, recovering from recent losses. The latest release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the largest on record, highlights a willingness to combat high prices, while Iran’s hardened stance in nuclear talks tempers hopes for increased supply.

    • Watch for impact from the 08:30 ET Philly Fed and jobless claims numbers as a read on US economic strength; weaker data would reinforce the case for lower Oil.
    • Geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions remain a key risk, particularly given Iran’s recent announcement regarding a “Persian Gulf Strait Authority”.

    Bias into NY: Cautiously bearish. SPR releases and wavering demand offset some geopolitical risk. Look for a retest of $98 if risk-off intensifies.

  • Brent Crude Faces Supply Pressure from UK Tax – Thursday, 21 May

    Snapshot: Brent crude is trading near $107 after recovering some ground from recent losses. The UK’s proposed tax increases on global oil giants, designed to offset VAT cuts on domestic leisure, add a layer of complexity to supply dynamics.

    • The UK’s fiscal shift creates uncertainty around North Sea production incentives.
    • Watch for volatility around the 08:30 ET Philly Fed print and Unemployment Claims data.

    Bias into NY: Neutral, with a slight bearish lean below $108. The UK’s fiscal measures are a potential headwind, but positive risk sentiment could offset some of that pressure. A break of 4.70% on 10Y yields would see upside.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Wednesday, 20 May

    Regime: Mixed — the VIX at 17.82 suggests a moderately risk-on environment, but rising US 10Y real yields near 2.13% offset the positive sentiment.

    Today’s market themes:

    • FOMC Minutes: focus on the Fed’s inflation outlook and rate-cut timeline.
    • Iran tensions: geopolitical risks weigh on oil and broader sentiment.
    • Nvidia earnings: potential market catalyst, could affirm rally or spur correction.

    The setup: All eyes on the FOMC Minutes at 2 PM ET. The market is pricing in minimal rate cuts this year. Hawkish surprises in the minutes could strengthen the dollar and pressure risk assets. A dovish surprise could weaken the dollar and boost stocks and bonds. Watch the 2Y yield for reaction.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 07:00 London [High] GBP: CPI y/y (forecast 3.0%, prior 3.3%)
    • 11:30 AEST [High] AUD: Employment Change (forecast 16.7K, prior 17.9K)
    • 14:00 ET [High] USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): FOMC minutes could provide hawkish catalysts.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment shifts amid Nvidia earnings anticipation.
      • Levels: Support at 119.00; resistance at 119.50.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (EU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength and rising US yields pressure the pair.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.0830; support at 1.0780.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): CPI miss fueled gilt buying – focus on MPC hearings.
      • Cross: DXY strength and risk appetite weigh on cable.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.2700; support at 1.2650.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ dovish stance and weak wage data.
      • Cross: US 10Y yield strength and DXY provide tailwinds.
      • Levels: Support at 158.50; resistance at 160.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CA): BoC cautious outlook and weak CPI.
      • Cross: DXY strength and weaker oil prices pressure CAD.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3750; resistance at 1.3800.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (AU): RBA cautious stance on inflation. Employment data in focus.
      • Cross: DXY strength and China growth concerns weigh.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.6700; support at 0.6630.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ dovish stance after recent meetings.
      • Cross: DXY strength and risk-off sentiment impact the Kiwi.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.5860; support at 0.5800.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB easing bias supports USD/CHF upside.
      • Cross: DXY strength and risk-off flows support pair.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7850; resistance at 0.7950.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP Bearish, EUR/JPY Bullish, GBP/JPY Bullish.
      • Domestic: Relative CB policy (BoE more hawkish than ECB; BoJ more dovish).
      • Cross: DXY strength weighing on EUR/GBP; risk-on supporting JPY crosses.
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: 0.8480/0.8530; EUR/JPY: 170.00/171.00; GBP/JPY: 193.50/194.50.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields increase the opportunity cost.
      • Cross: DXY strength weighs on Gold.
      • Levels: Resistance at $4,480/oz; support at $4,450/oz.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Weaker industrial demand prospects.
      • Cross: DXY strength and risk-off environment are headwinds.
      • Levels: Resistance at $32.00/oz; support at $31.50/oz.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Iran talks and Ukraine refinery attack priced in.
      • Cross: DXY strength and mixed risk sentiment.
      • Levels: WTI: $100/$103; Brent: $108/$111.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Wait for new China catalyst to lift LME stocks.
      • Cross: DXY and global growth prospects.
      • Levels: Resistance at $5.15; support at $5.00.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): Earnings season nearing end; Fed policy key.
      • Cross: VIX stable, global sentiment depends on Nvidia.
      • Levels: Futures 5300/5340; cash support 5280/5320.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): Nvidia earnings key; real yield reaction impacts valuation.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity and VIX.
      • Levels: 19250/19450.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): Awaiting for more industrials to show positive earnings.
      • Cross: Bond-yield reaction to FOMC minutes.
      • Levels: 39700/39900.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling swings impacting export-heavy index.
      • Cross: Global risk and US tone.
      • Levels: 10200/10300.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (DE): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US tech and DXY.
      • Levels: 24300/24500.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness continues, JGB yields drive sentiment.
      • Cross: US tech and risk regime.
      • Levels: 59500/60000.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flows holding steady, no major funding stress.
      • Cross: DXY and risk sentiment influencing Bitcoin’s price action.
      • Levels: 65000/68000.

    Positioning watch: Crowded longs in AUD and Copper (98th percentile) and crowded shorts in Nasdaq (0th percentile) and JPY (8th percentile) suggest squeeze risks if data improves or Fed turns dovish. Dollar long also extended (85th %ile) exposes downside on risk-on turn.

    The pain trade: A dovish surprise in the FOMC minutes would trigger a short squeeze in Nasdaq, fuel a rally in beaten-down gold, and weaken the dollar, hurting those positioned for higher rates.

  • Gold Under Pressure as Real Yields Rise – Wednesday, 20 May

    Where we are: Gold is under pressure, currently trading near $4,465/oz, consolidating losses from the previous session. Overnight, XAU traded in a relatively tight range, failing to break above $4,500. The current level is well below the prior NY close, suggesting further downside potential if momentum continues.

    What’s driving it: The primary headwind for gold remains the steady rise in US real yields. The 10-year TIPS yield is currently at 2.13%, up 3bp from Monday, making the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold more expensive. This is compounded by a slight increase in 10-year breakeven inflation, now at 2.49%, suggesting inflation expectations are not rising fast enough to offset the increase in real yields. Fresh comments from various BIS central bankers are unlikely to provide a tailwind, focused more on broader geo-economic issues and artificial intelligence.

    • US 10Y Real Yield is up 3.0bp d/d as of 2026-05-18, a clear headwind for gold.
    • 10Y Breakeven Inflation is only up 1.0bp d/d, failing to offset the real yield increase.
    • Speculator positioning in gold remains modestly long, with net non-commercial positions at +171,622 contracts, sitting at the 29th percentile, leaving some room for further liquidation.

    NY session focus: The key event for the NY session is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 ET. Traders will be scrutinizing the minutes for any clues about the Fed’s future policy path and its tolerance for inflation. Watch for a break below $4,450, which could trigger further selling toward $4,400. The trade that’s working right now is shorting XAU/USD on rallies. The biggest risk is a dovish surprise in the FOMC minutes, which could send real yields lower and trigger a sharp rally in gold. The pain trade is a surprise dovish tilt from the Fed causing a rapid short covering rally.

  • BTCUSD Vulnerable as ETF Demand Falters – Wednesday, 20 May

    Where we are: Bitcoin is trading around $66,850 as of 13:00 London, holding the level but looking heavy. The overnight range has been relatively tight, between $66,300 and $67,200. This level is slightly below yesterday’s New York close, suggesting some mild overnight selling pressure.

    What’s driving it: The lack of fresh spot BTC ETF flow data is a concern, as the early April enthusiasm appears to be waning, adding uncertainty. Binance BTCUSDT perps funding is balanced at 0.0076% per 8h, suggesting no overwhelming directional bias, although it’s not steep enough to incentivise shorts. Rising real yields in the US, with the 10Y TIPS at 2.13%, present a headwind by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin; this effect is amplified by a firmer USD, as the broad index sits at 119.2825.

    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial Bitcoin positioning is moderately long but has decreased w/w to +1,259 contracts, albeit still in the 79th percentile.
    • US 10Y Real Yields rose 3.0bp d/d as of Monday, placing pressure on non-yielding assets.
    • The Euro stablecoin project gaining backing of 37 banks could be a longer-term challenge to Bitcoin’s dominance if it gains traction, but it is not a primary mover right now.

    NY session focus: All eyes will be on the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 ET. Any hawkish surprises within the minutes could trigger a further sell-off in Bitcoin. Key levels to watch are $66,000, which, if broken decisively, opens the door to a test of $64,500. The trade that’s working is fading rallies near $67,200. The pain trade is a risk-on rally driven by dovish signals in the FOMC minutes, sending BTC through $68,000 and triggering short covering.

  • WTI Crude Rally Faces Headwinds Ahead of FOMC – Wednesday, 20 May

    Snapshot: WTI crude futures are trading around $102, extending yesterday’s gains. Today’s primary focus will be the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 ET, which could provide insights into the Fed’s assessment of inflation and its potential impact on future monetary policy and, consequently, economic growth and oil demand.

    • Watch for reactions around the $103 level; a break above could signal further upside momentum.
    • Increased volatility is expected around the 14:00 ET FOMC Minutes release, with potential for a sharp reversal depending on the tone of the report.

    Bias into NY: Cautiously bullish, but expect volatility. The FOMC minutes will set the tone, but rising US 10Y Real Yields at 2.13% could present a headwind.

  • Brent Crude Faces Renewed Iran Deal Concerns – Wednesday, 20 May

    Snapshot: Brent is under pressure following reports of potential progress in US-Iran negotiations, with prices hovering around $109/bbl. The key event to watch today will be the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 ET, which could further influence risk sentiment and the dollar.

    • Watch for further headlines regarding Iranian oil supply; a confirmed deal would likely pressure Brent further.
    • Risk sentiment around the FOMC Minutes at 14:00 ET may either amplify or counter the Iran headlines.

    Bias into NY: Expect further downside pressure on Brent Crude as markets cautiously price in the potential for a US-Iran agreement; a break below $107.50 would open the door to further losses.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Tuesday, 19 May

    Regime: Mixed — VIX at 18.43 signals ongoing unease, but rising US yields underpin USD strength, offsetting risk aversion.

    Today’s market themes:

    • USD dominance: Rising US yields and safe-haven demand continue to buoy the Dollar across the board.
    • Inflation watch: Canadian CPI data offers key test for BoC rate-cut expectations.
    • Positioning unwind: Crowded longs in AUD and Copper face disappointment risk from China slowdown fears.

    The setup: The market is pricing in a hawkish Fed, driving the USD higher, with USD/JPY approaching multi-decade highs near 159.15. The trade is to fade crowded shorts in Nasdaq and Yen while selling AUD on weak data. The risk is a surprise dovish signal from the Fed, triggering a rapid unwinding of USD longs.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 11:30 AEST AUD: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
    • 08:30 ET CAD: CPI m/m (forecast 0.7%, prior 0.9%)
    • 10:00 ET USD: Pending Home Sales m/m (forecast 1.0%, prior 1.5%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Higher
      • Domestic (US): US yields climbing; hawkish Fed repricing.
      • Cross: Safe-haven demand, global uncertainty boosting USD.
      • Levels: Support 119.00, Resistance 119.50.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (EU): Dovish ECB outlook weighing on the Euro.
      • Cross: DXY strength, US-DE 10Y widening.
      • Levels: Support 1.1600, Resistance 1.1700.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (UK): BoE reluctance, claimant count.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk off sentiment, US-UK 10Y.
      • Levels: Support 1.2450, Resistance 1.2550.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Higher
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ remains dovish; intervention risk grows.
      • Cross: US 10Y surging, DXY strength amplifying the move.
      • Levels: Support 158.50, Resistance 160.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Higher
      • Domestic (CA): CPI miss will trigger BOC dovish repricing.
      • Cross: DXY strength, watching US-CA 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.3700, Resistance 1.3750.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (AU): RBA cautious, meeting minutes confirm dovish stance.
      • Cross: DXY strength, China growth concerns.
      • Levels: Support 0.6600, Resistance 0.6650.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ easing bias entrenched.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 0.5800, Resistance 0.5850.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Higher
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response
      • Cross: DXY strength, safe-haven flows supporting.
      • Levels: Support 0.7850, Resistance 0.7900.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: sideways, EUR/JPY: higher, GBP/JPY: higher
      • Domestic: Relative hawkish BoE to ECB; JPY still dovish.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion affecting the crosses.
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: 0.8500-0.8550, EUR/JPY: 170.00-171.00, GBP/JPY: 193.50-194.50.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields weighing on gold.
      • Cross: DXY strength.
      • Levels: Support $4,520, Resistance $4,560.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand mixed, gold ratio flat.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support $31.00, Resistance $32.00.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Sideways
      • Domestic (asset-specific): US-Iran talks weighing.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion muted.
      • Levels: WTI: $100-103, Brent: $108-112.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth worries, LME stock build.
      • Cross: DXY strength, global growth proxy weak.
      • Levels: Support $4.80, Resistance $4.90.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (US): Rising yields, earnings season fades.
      • Cross: Elevated VIX, global risk concerns.
      • Levels: Futures support 5280, resistance 5300.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (US): Rising real yields pressuring valuations.
      • Cross: Rate sensitivity elevated, VIX concerns.
      • Levels: Support 19,300, Resistance 19,400.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (US): Earnings less supportive, cyclicals under pressure.
      • Cross: Bond yield reaction negative.
      • Levels: Support 39,800, Resistance 40,000.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Sideways
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling strength offsetting global weakness.
      • Cross: Global risk tone, US weakness.
      • Levels: Support 8,350, Resistance 8,400.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Sideways
      • Domestic (DE): German HICP eases, no bullish trigger.
      • Cross: US tech weakness, DXY strength.
      • Levels: Support 24,500, Resistance 24,600.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness hurting profitability.
      • Cross: US tech weak; no clear up catalyst.
      • Levels: Support 60,000, Resistance 61,000.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Sideways
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flow slowing, mixed on-chain data.
      • Cross: DXY strength, Nasdaq correlation weighing.
      • Levels: Support $66,000, Resistance $67,000.

    Positioning watch: Crowded longs in AUD (98th percentile) and Copper (98th percentile) expose these assets to significant downside risk if China economic data disappoints or trade tensions escalate. Crowded shorts in Nasdaq (0th percentile) face a squeeze risk if yields drop.

    The pain trade: A surprise dovish turn by the Fed, sparked by weak US data, would trigger a rapid unwinding of USD longs and a rally in equities, catching crowded shorts offside.

  • Gold Under Pressure as Real Yields Climb – Tuesday, 19 May

    Where we are: Gold is currently trading near $4,545, slightly below yesterday’s close, after a choppy overnight session. Bullion has given back some of yesterday’s gains as rising real yields continue to weigh. The metal is struggling to break above resistance at $4,560, with immediate support around $4,530.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver for Gold remains the upward pressure from rising US real yields. The 10-year TIPS yield climbed 10 basis points to 2.1% (as of May 15th), creating a significant headwind for the non-yielding asset. While breakeven inflation edged down 1 basis point to 2.48%, it wasn’t enough to offset the real yield move. We are seeing no fresh signals from central bank speakers today or any domestic catalyst and therefore the price action is driven by broader macroeconomic forces.

    • US 10Y Real Yield (TIPS): 2.1% (+10.0bp d/d, as of 2026-05-15)
    • 10Y Breakeven Inflation: 2.48% (-1.0bp d/d, as of 2026-05-18)
    • Speculator Positioning (CFTC, Gold, week of 2026-05-12T00:00:00.000): Net non-commercial: +171,622 contracts (+8,319 w/w, 29th %ile (52w)), indicating there is still room for further downside if positioning moves against Gold.

    NY session focus: Today’s Pending Home Sales data at 10:00 ET will offer some insight into the housing market, but it’s unlikely to be a major catalyst for Gold unless it significantly deviates from the 1.0% forecast. Keep a close eye on the 10-year yield throughout the session; further increases will likely push Gold lower, potentially testing the $4,520 level. The trade that’s working right now is fading rallies toward $4,560. The pain trade would be a sudden reversal in real yields driven by a dovish surprise.

  • Bitcoin Under Pressure as Political Risks Emerge – Tuesday, 19 May

    Where we are: BTCUSD is currently trading around $66,800, slightly weaker after an overnight range that saw highs near $67,500. The price sits below Friday’s NY close as risk sentiment has softened. We’re watching for a potential test of support near $66,000.

    What’s driving it: The primary pressure stems from emerging political risks tied to Bitcoin’s perception. The revelation of Nigel Farage receiving a substantial undisclosed gift from a crypto billionaire is fuelling concerns about regulatory scrutiny and mainstream adoption headwinds. Binance BTCUSDT perp funding is balanced at 0.0046% per 8h, suggesting no immediate funding stress despite the negative news flow. Broader risk-off sentiment, evidenced by the rising VIX and higher US yields, is weighing on BTC, as investors rotate into safer assets.

    • Political Flag: The Guardian’s report on Farage’s £5m crypto gift raises questions about political influence and crypto regulation.
    • Macro Headwind: US 10Y real yields have climbed to 2.1%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
    • Positioning: CFTC data shows net non-commercial positions are moderately long at +1,259 contracts, 79th percentile (52w), leaving room for further liquidation if sentiment worsens.

    NY session focus: The key event to watch is the 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales release; a weaker-than-expected print could trigger a risk-off move initially, but might eventually soften the dollar and provide Bitcoin with a temporary boost. We’re watching the $66,000 level closely as a break there could open the door to further downside toward $65,000. A sustained break above $67,500 would alleviate immediate pressure. The trade that’s working is short BTC on rallies. The pain trade is a surprise rally above $68,000 triggered by a weaker-than-forecast Pending Home Sales.

  • WTI Crude pressured by Trump’s Iran negotiation claims – Tuesday, 19 May

    Snapshot: WTI crude futures are pulling back after yesterday’s gains, with news of potential US-Iran negotiations weighing on sentiment. The retracement comes despite a moderately long speculator positioning in WTI, with net non-commercial holdings at +169,877 contracts. Watch for volatility around the 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales release.

    • Initial support lies at $102, a break below which could trigger further unwinding of long positions.
    • Risk of a sharper correction increases if US-Iran talks gain traction, but supply concerns in the Strait of Hormuz remain a key upside catalyst.

    Bias into NY: Mildly bearish into the NY session as markets price in reduced geopolitical risk, but we expect dips to be bought near $101.50 given the already elevated positioning and fragile geopolitical backdrop.

  • Brent Crude Under Pressure Amid Geopolitical Headlines – Tuesday, 19 May

    Snapshot: Brent is seeing pressure near $110 after Trump announced the shelving of military strikes against Iran and hopes for negotiation resumption; fresh waiver for Russian crude sales adding to supply. The Canadian CPI data due at 08:30 ET will provide an early steer to risk sentiment.

    • A break below $108.50 would signal further weakness.
    • Watch for further headlines regarding US-Iran negotiations; stalled talks could quickly reignite supply fears.

    Bias into NY: Downside favoured, with the geopolitical backdrop easing supply concerns. A test of $107 looks likely if risk-off sentiment persists, driven by broad USD strength and higher real yields.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Monday, 18 May

    Regime: Risk-off, driven by rising real yields as 10Y TIPS push above 2% and oil climbs to $105, pressuring equities.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Real-yield repricing and inflation fears weighing on risk assets.
    • Geopolitical tensions in Middle East adding to oil supply concerns.
    • Watch for signs of USD/JPY intervention as pair tests 159.

    The setup: Rising real yields are the dominant driver, pressuring risk assets. Focus on the US 10Y TIPS yield, currently at 2%, as it sets the tone. A break above 2.1% could trigger further equity sell-off and dollar strength. Trade: short SPX futures, stop above 5300. Risk: surprising dovish Fed commentary.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET US Retail Sales (m/m) Forecast: 0.4%, Prior: 0.7%
    • 10:00 ET US NAHB Housing Market Index Prior: 51
    • 11:00 CET ECB President Lagarde Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Hawkish Fed rhetoric, rising US yields
      • Cross: Risk-off sentiment, safe-haven demand
      • Levels: Support 117.80 / Resistance 118.30
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (EU): Weak German data, dovish ECB comments
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, widening US-DE 10Y yield spread
      • Levels: Support 1.0800 / Resistance 1.0850
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (UK): Cautious BoE stance, weak data prints
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk-off flows
      • Levels: Support 1.2550 / Resistance 1.2620
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ dovish, rising JGB yields, intervention watch
      • Cross: Rising US 10Y, DXY strength, risk-off
      • Levels: Support 158.50 / Resistance 159.00
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): BoC holds, CPI is soft, rangebound
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, US-CA 10Y spread widening
      • Levels: Support 1.3650 / Resistance 1.3700
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (AU): Hawkish RBA stance but crowded long positioning
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, weaker China growth, US-AU spread
      • Levels: Support 0.7050 / Resistance 0.7120
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ easing bias, weakening economic momentum
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk aversion, US-NZ yield divergence
      • Levels: Support 0.5800 / Resistance 0.5850
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB neutral, CPI contained
      • Cross: DXY strength, safe-haven unwinding
      • Levels: Support 0.7800 / Resistance 0.7850
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP Neutral, EUR/JPY Bearish, GBP/JPY Neutral
      • Domestic: Diverging central bank policies, relative yield spreads
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk regime dynamics
      • Levels: EUR/GBP 0.8500-0.8550, EUR/JPY 169.50-170.50, GBP/JPY 192.00-193.00
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields, soft CB demand
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk-off environment
      • Levels: Support $4,500 / Resistance $4,550
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Weaker industrial demand, high Gold-Silver ratio
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk aversion
      • Levels: Support $30.00 / Resistance $31.00
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Tight supply, geopolitics, rising demand
      • Cross: Risk-off, inflation hedge
      • Levels: WTI Support $100 / Resistance $105
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Weak China, rising LME stocks
      • Cross: DXY strength, global growth concerns
      • Levels: Support $5.00 / Resistance $5.10
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Rising yields, Fed outlook
      • Cross: VIX elevated, global risk-off
      • Levels: Futures 5285, support 5250, resistance 5300 cash
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Real yields pressure valuations
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity, VIX
      • Levels: Support 18,100 / Resistance 18,300
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Earnings cyclical concerns, yields
      • Cross: Bond-yield reaction
      • Levels: Support 39,700 / Resistance 40,000
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): Mixed data, Gilt yields
      • Cross: Global risk, US tone
      • Levels: Support 8,400 / Resistance 8,450
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (DE): Weak German data, rising Bund yields
      • Cross: US tech, DXY, risk regime
      • Levels: Support 23,600 / Resistance 23,800
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (JP): Strong JPY, rising JGB yields, BoJ stance
      • Cross: US tech, risk regime
      • Levels: Support 60,500 / Resistance 61,000
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF outflows
      • Cross: DXY, risk regime, Nasdaq correlation
      • Levels: Support $60,000 / Resistance $62,000

    Positioning watch: AUD and Copper are crowded long at >98th percentile, creating significant squeeze risk if US data surprises to the upside or China stimulus disappoints. Nasdaq is crowded short at the 0th percentile, vulnerable to a rally.

    The pain trade: A dovish surprise from a Fed speaker would ignite a risk rally, squeezing crowded short positions in Nasdaq and causing dollar weakness.

  • Gold Struggles as Real Yields Climb – Monday, 18 May

    Where we are: Gold is trading around $4,545, modestly above the overnight low, but still under pressure after last week’s nearly 4% decline. The yellow metal remains below key resistance at $4,560 and is struggling to gain traction ahead of the US open. The range has been relatively tight so far this morning, with some tentative buying interest emerging around the $4,540 level.

    What’s driving it: Rising US real yields continue to exert downward pressure on gold. The 10-year TIPS yield edged up to 2%, adding to the headwinds for bullion as investors demand higher returns from risk-free assets. While breakeven inflation also ticked up to 2.49%, the real yield move is the dominant driver. Absent fresh domestic catalysts, gold is beholden to this real rate dynamic for now.

    • US 10Y Real Yield at 2% (+1.0bp d/d) continues to climb, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
    • 10Y Breakeven Inflation also increased, up 2.0bp d/d, but the nominal yield increase is overshadowing this move.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial positions are modestly long at +171,622 contracts, offering little support against the broader trend.

    NY session focus: All eyes will be on the US data releases later this week, but for today, the market will likely remain focused on yield dynamics. Watch for the 10-year real yield to potentially test 2.05%; a break above that could trigger another leg lower in gold. Key support to watch is around $4,530. The trade at risk is any long position predicated on geopolitical risk, which seems to be fading somewhat. The pain trade is a sharp reversal in real yields, driven by a dovish surprise, which could trigger a rapid short squeeze.