Where we are: Gold is currently trading near $4,545, slightly below yesterday’s close, after a choppy overnight session. Bullion has given back some of yesterday’s gains as rising real yields continue to weigh. The metal is struggling to break above resistance at $4,560, with immediate support around $4,530.
What’s driving it: The primary driver for Gold remains the upward pressure from rising US real yields. The 10-year TIPS yield climbed 10 basis points to 2.1% (as of May 15th), creating a significant headwind for the non-yielding asset. While breakeven inflation edged down 1 basis point to 2.48%, it wasn’t enough to offset the real yield move. We are seeing no fresh signals from central bank speakers today or any domestic catalyst and therefore the price action is driven by broader macroeconomic forces.
- US 10Y Real Yield (TIPS): 2.1% (+10.0bp d/d, as of 2026-05-15)
- 10Y Breakeven Inflation: 2.48% (-1.0bp d/d, as of 2026-05-18)
- Speculator Positioning (CFTC, Gold, week of 2026-05-12T00:00:00.000): Net non-commercial: +171,622 contracts (+8,319 w/w, 29th %ile (52w)), indicating there is still room for further downside if positioning moves against Gold.
NY session focus: Today’s Pending Home Sales data at 10:00 ET will offer some insight into the housing market, but it’s unlikely to be a major catalyst for Gold unless it significantly deviates from the 1.0% forecast. Keep a close eye on the 10-year yield throughout the session; further increases will likely push Gold lower, potentially testing the $4,520 level. The trade that’s working right now is fading rallies toward $4,560. The pain trade would be a sudden reversal in real yields driven by a dovish surprise.