Category: Global

  • Bitcoin Consolidates Ahead of Fed Meeting – Monday, 27 April

    Where we are: Bitcoin currently trades at $77,693, down $708 or 0.9% on the day, trading within a $77,494-$79,497 range. BTC is underperforming Ethereum which is down 2.08%. Bitcoin is finding support ahead of the $77,000 level after a strong run. This consolidation is occurring as the DXY weakens to 98.14 and US 10Y yields nudge slightly higher to 4.323%.

    What’s driving it: The near-term BTC price action is being driven by ETF flows, and sentiment surrounding the upcoming Fed meeting and potential peace talks. Wire reports suggest that Bitcoin ETFs are extending their longest win streak since September, though spot demand lags. This is occuring as broader risk sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, as evidenced by gains in the Nikkei (+1.18%), DAX (+0.28%), and US futures. The crowded long positioning also presents squeeze risk if positive catalysts fail to materialize.

    • Yahoo Finance Headline: Bitcoin ETFs Extend Longest Win Streak Since September, But Spot Demand Lags
    • US 10Y Real Yield remains elevated at 1.92%.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial Bitcoin positioning at +2,071 contracts, still a crowded long at the 90th percentile.

    NY session focus: Watch for reaction to any pre-Fed headlines regarding potential pivots or peace talk progress. Key levels to watch are $77,000 as initial support, and $79,500 as resistance. A break below $77,000 could trigger a faster move down to $75,000 given the crowded longs. We still think the trade in BTC is buying dips with the bigger picture backdrop for adoption still bullish, but traders need to be mindful of that crowded long position and potential for a squeeze. The pain trade for Bitcoin is a hawkish surprise from the Fed coupled with stalled peace talks.

  • Oil Rallies on Iran Tensions, Supply Concerns – Monday, 27 April

    Snapshot: WTI Crude is currently trading at $96.23, up 0.61% on the session, driven primarily by continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The DXY is slightly softer at 98.14, offering minor support, but the geopolitical premium is the dominant driver.

    • $97.10 represents the intraday high; a break above would signal further upside.
    • Watch for any headlines regarding the Iranian proposal conveyed through Pakistani mediators; a positive resolution would likely trigger a sharp sell-off.

    Bias into NY: We favour further upside in WTI toward $98.00 as long as tensions remain elevated, though the moderately long speculative positioning does leave Crude exposed to a downside correction on any de-escalation news.

  • North Sea Oil Surges as Iran Deal Collapses – Monday, 27 April

    Snapshot: Brent is trading at $101.05, marginally lower on the day, but the unraveling of US-Iran peace talks is the dominant driver. This morning’s newsflow of stalled negotiations and Tehran’s hardline stance reinforces supply-side concerns, potentially reigniting bullish momentum. Monitor the response to any further headlines as that situation develops.

    • Breaching the day’s high of $102.18 opens a run toward $108.
    • Risk: Confirmation of Hormuz reopening talks could trigger a sharp reversal.

    Bias into NY: Bullish above $100.00. Goldman’s $120 target, conditional on prolonged conflict, will keep the buy-side interested on dips.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Saturday, 25 April

    Today’s market themes:

    • Iran talks: Shifting expectations for US-Iran negotiations drives swings in oil and risk sentiment.
    • Dollar weakness: Broad USD selling pressure continues, impacting FX crosses and commodity prices.
    • Tech rebound: Nasdaq leading equities higher, fueled by a rotation back into growth and mega-cap stocks.

    The setup: Equities are bid into the NY open on hopes for Iran deal progress, weighing on crude and USD. Look for pullbacks in oil to be bought if Trump’s stance softens, and USD dip-buying at 98.15 DXY. US 10Y at 4.302% offers resistance.

    Watch list (London time):

    • 17:00 USD: President Trump Speaks (Medium)
    • No other scheduled events
    • No Central Bank Speakers

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY: Down – Iran talks pressure, target 98.00.
    • EUR: Up – Weak USD, US-DE 10Y spread +131bp supports.
    • GBP: Up – Sentiment improved, US-UK 10Y spread -61bp.
    • JPY: Down – Risk-on flows overshadow US-JP 10Y +187bp.
    • CAD: Up – Weaker USD and oil price sensitivity at 1.3650.
    • AUD: Up – Risk appetite lifts, eyeing 0.7200.
    • NZD: Up – Dollar weakness main driver, 0.5900 target.
    • CHF: Down – Risk-on offsets safe-haven demand; watch 0.7800.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY: Mixed – Play risk sentiment and individual drivers.
    • XAU (Gold): Up – Real yields falling, target 4775.
    • XAG (Silver): Up – Following Gold, watch Gold/Silver ratio.
    • WTI / Brent: Down – Iran talk hopes weighing, choppy around $94/$105.
    • Copper: Neutral – Modest China demand concerns; hold 600.
    • SPX: Up – Risk-on, 7250 potential on break of 7200.
    • NDX: Up – Rates ease, mega-caps lead, new highs possible.
    • US30: Neutral – Lagging tech, focus on economic data later in the week.
    • UK100: Down – Underperforming EU peers, still heavy tone.
    • DAX: Neutral – Holding steady, weak tech hampering.
    • Nikkei: Up – Catching up to US tech move, watch 60000.
    • BTC: Neutral – Consolidation near highs, risk-on/off correlation still relevant.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded longs in USD, AUD, Copper, and Bitcoin, and crowded shorts in JPY and NZD — any hawkish comments from the Fed or negative trade news could trigger violent short squeezes in JPY/NZD.

    The pain trade: A complete breakdown of US-Iran talks and renewed Hormuz tensions would spike oil, send the dollar higher, and crush risk assets.

  • Gold Gains Momentum as Dollar Weakens – Saturday, 25 April

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) currently trades at 4740.9, up 0.54% and near the high of the day’s range (4672.2-4757.1). Bullion is catching a bid in early trading after finding support late in the EU session. Gold is building on gains from Friday after bouncing near 4650. The move is supported by a weaker dollar as risk sentiment improves.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver for gold is dollar weakness, with the DXY currently at 98.36, down 0.31%. This is providing a tailwind for gold, as is the slight pullback in US Treasury yields. While the 10-year yield is only down marginally at 4.302%, the more significant move is in the 2-year yield, which has dropped 5.9 bps to 3.785%. The slight inversion steepening should be a boon for Gold. News of Aurelion allocating $48 Million in Tether Gold to XAUE yield protocol will provide a lift to the market, as well.

    • Yahoo Finance: Aurelion Allocates $48 Million in Tether Gold to XAUE Yield Protocol
    • US 2Y Yield dropped 5.9bps to 3.785%
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial positions are modestly long at +164,006 contracts, in the 25th percentile over the past year.

    NY session focus: The key event to watch will be President Trump’s speech at 17:00 London time, though the market is unlikely to take much notice. Traders should monitor the dollar index and Treasury yields for further direction. A break above the intraday high of 4757.1 could see gold test 4775. On the downside, support lies around 4720, followed by 4700. Given the relatively light positioning, a short squeeze is unlikely, but the real pain trade for gold would be a hawkish Trump comment that sends yields and the dollar higher.

  • Bitcoin Fades on DXY Strength; Beware Trump Rally – Saturday, 25 April

    Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading at $77,596, down $337 (-0.43%) on the day, within a daily range of $77,397-$78,572. This is slightly below yesterday’s NY close, with early dip-buyers so far appearing to have little conviction. The dip comes despite strength in S&P 500 futures, suggesting Bitcoin is decoupling from risk-on sentiment this morning.

    What’s driving it: DXY strength is likely weighing on Bitcoin, with the dollar index up 0.30% to 98.36. Recent flows into Bitcoin ETFs could provide a floor, but the overcrowded long positioning in Bitcoin futures remains a concern. Focus will likely shift to President Trump’s speech later at 17:00 London time, which could inject volatility given his recent crypto endorsements – and his own coin’s lackluster performance.

    • Wire headline: Bitcoin ETFs added $2.1B in 8 days – last time this happened, Bitcoin hit an all-time high.
    • DXY currently at session highs of 98.36, after a 98.32 overnight low.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial Bitcoin positioning at the 90th percentile, signaling squeeze risk.

    NY session focus: Traders should watch for a potential breakout in the DXY above 98.50, which could trigger further downside in Bitcoin. A break below $77,397 could lead to a test of $77,000. Conversely, a risk-on tone in equities could see Bitcoin recover to the $78,000 level. The Trump speech at 17:00 London is a wild card, potentially sparking a sharp rally or sell-off, with positioning ripe for a squeeze. The pain trade here is a sudden DXY reversal sending BTC hurtling through $80,000.

  • WTI Crude Dips as Diplomacy Hopes Resurface – Saturday, 25 April

    Snapshot: WTI Crude is trading at $94.40, down 2.30% on the day, driven by renewed hopes of US-Iran talks potentially easing supply constraints. The DXY is slightly weaker at 98.36, but that’s not enough to offset the geopolitical premium unwind.

    • Watch $92.68, the daily low; breach opens a retest of $90.
    • Trump speaks at 17:00 London – rhetoric could easily reignite supply concerns.

    Bias into NY: Cautiously bearish. A break below $94.00 accelerates toward $93.00; any hawkish rhetoric from Trump at 17:00 could easily reverse this move.

  • North Sea Brent Remains Bid on Supply Concerns – Saturday, 25 April

    Snapshot: Brent is trading at $105.33, down -0.69 (-0.65%) on the session, but holding gains driven by sustained supply concerns in the Middle East. The market remains sensitive to news flow regarding the Strait of Hormuz and potential disruptions to global oil flows. Trump’s speech at 17:00 London is a potential catalyst.

    • $107.48 represents intraday resistance, a break above could see a retest of recent highs.
    • Watch for further headlines on Iranian diplomacy; any progress could trigger a sharp pullback.

    Bias into NY: Bullish, but with caution. The geopolitical risk premium remains elevated, supporting Brent above $103.00, but a resolution in the Middle East could quickly reverse the trend.