Category: Global

  • Bitcoin Choppy as Political Risks Add Volatility – Wednesday, 13 May

    Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading around $62,850, holding steady after a volatile overnight session that saw it range between $62,000 and $63,500. This level is slightly below yesterday’s New York close, and BTC remains under pressure from the $64,000 resistance. Consolidation appears to be the theme as markets await the morning’s PPI print.

    What’s driving it: The political angle is beginning to add a new layer of uncertainty to Bitcoin, with news of an investigation into Nigel Farage over a substantial crypto donation raising eyebrows. While direct impact is limited, it highlights the increasing intersection of crypto and politics, which can bring regulatory scrutiny. Domestically, balanced funding rates on Binance perps (0.0017% per 8h) provide little directional impetus for now; we are awaiting wired spot BTC ETF net flow and on-chain data for further signals. A broadly firmer USD, with the dollar index at 118.0392 and US 2Y yields up 5bp to 3.95%, is offering some headwinds, and the rising 10Y real yield at 1.95% continues to weigh on gold and by extension, risk assets like Bitcoin.

    • Nigel Farage investigation adds political risk premium.
    • CFTC data shows Bitcoin crowded long, with net non-commercial positions at +1,441 contracts (83rd percentile), raising squeeze risk if sentiment sours.
    • Charles Schwab launching crypto trading could provide a tailwind, expanding retail access.

    NY session focus: Traders are keying in on the 08:30 ET PPI release and the 14:30 ET Fed Chair Nomination Vote; any surprise in either could trigger volatility. Watch for a break above $64,000 to signal renewed bullish momentum, while a drop below $62,000 could open the door to further downside towards $60,000. Currently, fading intraday rallies is the preferred strategy, though squeezes given positioning are high risk. The pain trade here is a sustained breakout above $65,000, triggering a wave of short covering.

  • WTI Crude Steadies Above $102 After IEA Warning – Wednesday, 13 May

    Snapshot: WTI crude is holding around $102, supported by the IEA’s report of a record draw in global oil inventories. Focus shifts to the 08:30 ET PPI release, which could influence risk sentiment and, indirectly, oil demand expectations. Positioning remains moderately long, but not at levels indicating imminent squeeze risk.

    • Watch for a break above $103 resistance, which could trigger further upside.
    • Downside risk remains tied to broader risk-off sentiment if PPI prints hotter than expected at 08:30 ET.

    Bias into NY: Bullish while the IEA’s undersupply narrative remains in place, targeting $105 if risk sentiment holds. We see limited downside given the current supply constraints and relatively contained USD strength.

  • North Sea Brent Crude Buoyed by Supply Concerns – Wednesday, 13 May

    Snapshot: Brent is holding steady near $108 after its recent rally, underpinned by IEA warnings of rapidly depleting global oil inventories due to the Iran war and persistent supply disruptions. Today’s focus shifts to the 08:30 ET PPI data release, which could impact the dollar and indirectly influence commodity prices.

    • A break above $110 could signal further upside as the summer demand season approaches, with inventories already stretched.
    • Risk: An unexpectedly strong PPI print could trigger a stronger dollar and renewed headwinds for Brent, despite the tighter supply backdrop.

    Bias into NY: Bullish on Brent, driven by the IEA’s stark assessment of supply tightness and falling inventories. Look for a test of $110 if the PPI data doesn’t derail the current trajectory.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Tuesday, 12 May

    Regime: Risk-off, driven by stronger-than-expected US CPI data and escalating Middle East tensions, pushing the VIX higher and US 10Y yields up 5bp to 4.43%.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Real-rate repricing: Hotter CPI print fuels hawkish Fed bets, pressuring risk assets.
    • Geopolitical risk: Iran war uncertainty keeps oil elevated, supporting inflation concerns.
    • Crowded shorts: Potential for squeeze in JPY, GBP, and NZD if risk sentiment improves.

    The setup: The stronger-than-expected US CPI print has triggered a hawkish repricing of Fed expectations, sending US yields higher and the dollar stronger. This is pressuring risk assets, particularly tech and emerging markets. The trade is to fade rallies in risk assets, but watch for potential short squeezes in crowded short currencies if geopolitical risks abate or US data disappoints. US 10Y at 4.43%, DXY at 98.25.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET USD: Core CPI m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.2%)
    • 11:59 ET USD: Fed Chair Nomination Vote (forecast Pass, prior —)
    • 11:30 AEST AUD: Wage Price Index q/q (forecast 0.8%, prior 0.8%)

    Bias by asset:

    STRICT SILO RULE: For every non-USD asset, the Domestic line MUST contain only domestic content (home central bank / domestic data / domestic yield / domestic political-fiscal driver). USD, DXY, Fed, US yields, and risk regime go in the Cross line — never in Domestic. If no fresh domestic catalyst exists, write “No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response” in Domestic. For commodities, Domestic = real-yields / supply / inventories / flows. For BTC, Domestic = funding / ETF flow / on-chain.

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Hawkish Fed repricing on CPI beat. Rising US yields support.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows, safe-haven demand, EM weakness.
      • Levels: Resistance at 98.50, support at 98.00.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (EU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, widening US-DE 10Y yield spread, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.0800, support at 1.0750.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): Rising UK borrowing costs pressure.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, widening US-UK 10Y yield spread, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.3550, support at 1.3500.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ remains dovish. Intervention risk looming.
      • Cross: Higher US 10Y yields, strong DXY, risk-off bids into USD.
      • Levels: Resistance at 158.00, support at 157.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CA): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, US-CA 10Y yield spread widening.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.3750, support at 1.3700.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (AU): Awaiting Wage Price Index data.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, US-AU 10Y yield spread widening, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.7220, support at 0.7175.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ easing bias remains in place.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, US-NZ 10Y yield spread widening, risk-off flows.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.5960, support at 0.5920.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, waning safe-haven appeal of CHF.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.7820, support at 0.7780.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral, EUR/JPY: Bearish, GBP/JPY: Bearish.
      • Domestic: Relative central bank policy divergence remains key driver.
      • Cross: DXY strength supports JPY and GBP.
      • Levels: Monitor individual cross support/resistance.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields pressure gold.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk-off flows less supportive with rates rising.
      • Levels: Resistance at $4,720, support at $4,680.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): No fresh catalyst — sensitive to overall risk tone.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk-off sentiment, industrial demand concerns.
      • Levels: Monitor gold for direction, lower volatility.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Supply disruption fears, escalating geopolitical tensions.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY provides some support, but risk-off a headwind.
      • Levels: Watch for Iran ceasefire news.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth concerns weigh.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, global growth proxy suffers from risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Monitor China data.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Higher yields, earnings rotation away from growth.
      • Cross: Elevated VIX, global risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Futures at 5185. Support at 5170, resistance at 5200.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Sensitive to real yields, mega-cap earnings under pressure.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity, VIX elevation.
      • Levels: Monitor tech stocks for price action.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): Financials and industrials facing mixed earnings.
      • Cross: Bond-yield reaction muted.
      • Levels: Trading near flatline, awaiting catalyst.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): Weaker Sterling, higher Gilt yields.
      • Cross: Global risk, US tone negative.
      • Levels: Trading lower in Europe.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (DE): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US tech weakness, stronger DXY, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Trading lower on lack of drivers.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness capped by intervention risk.
      • Cross: US tech selling pressure, risk off.
      • Levels: High close, vulnerable to correction.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Funding rates easing, ETF flows slowing.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk aversion, Nasdaq correlation.
      • Levels: Finding soft support after overnight retreat.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded longs in AUD, USD, Copper, and Bitcoin, creating potential downside risk if data disappoints or risk sentiment shifts. Crowded shorts in JPY, GBP, and NZD present squeeze potential if risk appetite recovers.

    The pain trade: A surprise dovish signal from the Fed Chair Nomination Vote, coupled with weaker-than-expected US data later in the week, would trigger a sharp short squeeze in JPY, GBP, and NZD, while simultaneously hammering the USD.

  • Gold Wobbles Below $4,710 Amid Inflation Jitters – Tuesday, 12 May

    Where we are: Gold is currently trading just below $4,710, struggling to find direction after oscillating overnight. The price action remains choppy, caught between support around $4,700 and resistance near $4,725. This level is below Friday’s NY close.

    What’s driving it: Falling real yields continue to provide underlying support for gold, with the US 10Y real yield down 3bp to 1.93% as of Friday’s close. That tailwind is somewhat countered by ongoing concerns about inflation, as reflected in the 2bp rise in 10Y breakeven inflation to 2.47%. The market is now bracing for today’s 08:30 ET CPI print, which could significantly impact the Fed’s policy outlook and, consequently, real rates. Speeches today from Fed governors Cook, Waller and Vice Chair Bowman on tokenization and Fed operations are unlikely to move the needle, as they are backward-looking to events last week.

    • US 10Y Real Yield: 1.93% (-3.0bp d/d), supporting gold
    • Indian banks are resuming bullion imports after a month-long halt, per Reuters. This should increase physical demand.
    • Net non-commercial gold positioning remains modestly long, at the 21st percentile, suggesting no immediate squeeze risk.

    NY session focus: All eyes are on the 08:30 ET US CPI release, with forecasts calling for a rise to 3.7% y/y. A hotter-than-expected print would likely trigger a spike in nominal yields and a subsequent drop in gold, while a softer reading could see gold push higher, testing resistance around $4,730. Keep an eye on the Fed Chair nomination vote later today; a surprise failure to pass could trigger risk-off flows and benefit gold. The trade that’s working is buying dips on real-yield weakness. The trade at risk is shorting gold ahead of the CPI data. The pain trade is a dovish surprise from CPI leading to aggressive short covering, sending gold to $4,750.

  • Bitcoin Weakens on Technicals, Inflation Data Looms – Tuesday, 12 May

    Where we are: Bitcoin is trading around $62,300, finding soft support after retreating from its overnight range high near $63,000. This level is below the prior NY close and suggests a continuation of yesterday’s softer tone. The market is currently awaiting today’s key US CPI print, which could inject volatility into the session.

    What’s driving it: Bitcoin’s near-term direction is currently being dictated by technical factors after a period of relative calm in underlying drivers. Binance BTCUSDT perp funding is balanced at 0.0027% per 8h, or ~3% annualized, indicating neither strong bullish nor bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. Spot ETF flows are pending and on-chain data is not yet wired, so there is no strong domestic catalyst in play this morning. Macro crosscurrents, specifically the 08:30 ET US CPI release, will be the major factor in today’s price action. Elevated CPI prints will likely push US yields higher, weighing on Bitcoin.

    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial positioning in Bitcoin at +1,441 contracts, down 951 w/w but still at the 83rd percentile, raising the risk of a squeeze on any downside surprises.
    • The US 10Y Real Yield (TIPS) has fallen to 1.93%, a tailwind for gold and, to some extent, Bitcoin as an alternative asset.
    • Michael Terpin’s prediction of a Bitcoin correction before another bull market phase, while not an immediate driver, could be weighing on sentiment and keeping a lid on upside breakouts.

    NY session focus: The main event is the 08:30 ET US CPI data release. A strong print (CPI y/y above 3.7%) should send US 10Y yields higher, potentially pushing BTC towards $60,000. Conversely, a soft print could fuel a relief rally towards $64,000, although resistance is expected to hold. Focus should be on watching the initial reaction to the data and fading any knee-jerk moves. The passing of the Fed Chair nomination vote (11:59 ET) is fully priced in. The pain trade for Bitcoin would be a stagnant CPI print that leaves the market in limbo, fostering indecision and choppy price action.

  • US Oil Primed for Post-CPI Volatility – Tuesday, 12 May

    Snapshot: WTI crude futures are holding above $101.00, anticipating volatility from this morning’s 08:30 ET US CPI release. Concerns over Strait of Hormuz disruptions remain a key supportive factor, but the domestic data looms largest near-term.

    • Watch for a break above $102.00 on a hot CPI print, potentially targeting last week’s highs.
    • Downside risk exists if CPI misses, potentially triggering a retest of $100.00.

    Bias into NY: Sideways with an upward tilt predicated on geopolitical risks and tight supply, but awaiting the CPI data to confirm the next directional move. We see potential for a spike higher if core CPI prints above 0.3%, reinforcing the view that the Fed will need to maintain its hawkish stance.

  • North Sea Brent Crude Remains Bid on Supply Concerns – Tuesday, 12 May

    Snapshot: Brent crude futures are holding above $107, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions and supply disruption fears. President Trump’s comments on the US-Iran ceasefire have heightened concerns about the Strait of Hormuz, overshadowing the slightly softer close in US 10Y yields.

    • Watch the 08:30 ET US CPI prints; a strong reading could boost the USD and weigh on Brent.
    • Geopolitical risk surrounding Iran remains the key upside driver.

    Bias into NY: Bullish, with the potential for further upside towards $108.50 given ongoing supply risks, but the 08:30 ET CPI could trigger a reversal if inflation comes in hotter than expected.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Monday, 11 May

    Regime: Risk-off, with oil spiking on escalating Middle East tensions and Trump rejecting Iran’s peace offer, VIX at 17.08 and 10Y yields slightly higher.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Geopolitical Risk: Middle East tensions driving oil and safe-haven flows.
    • Rate Divergence: CB policy driving FX crosses, particularly EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY.
    • Commodity Strength: Silver and Copper continue to show strong performance.

    The setup: Geopolitical tensions are escalating quickly, pushing oil higher and boosting safe-haven demand. The market is pricing in a higher risk of supply disruptions from the Middle East. Watch for further headlines as the situation develops; a break above $105 in Brent could trigger a larger risk-off move. US 10Y yield is at 4.393%.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 09:30 CST CNY: CPI y/y (forecast 0.9%, prior 1.0%)
    • 09:30 CST CNY: PPI y/y (forecast 1.7%, prior 0.5%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (US): Fed watching data; US yields steady
      • Cross: Geopolitical risk-off; Euro weakness capping upside
      • Levels: Support: 97.80, Resistance: 98.03
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (EU): ECB divergence widening vs BoE and Fed
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-DE 10Y spread widening / Risk-off
      • Levels: Support: 1.1749, Resistance: 1.1782
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): BoE hawkish hold / higher Gilt yields supporting
      • Cross: DXY / US-UK 10Y spread / Risk-off offsets domestic strength
      • Levels: Support: 1.3570, Resistance: 1.3616
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ dovish / JGB yields capped / Intervention watch
      • Cross: Higher US 10Y yield / DXY / risk regime
      • Levels: Support: 156.76, Resistance: 157.18
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (CA): BoC dovish / WTI strength offset by CAD weakness
      • Cross: DXY / US-CA 10Y spread
      • Levels: Support: 1.3661, Resistance: 1.3695
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (AU): RBA neutral / China data sensitivity
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-AU 10Y / China growth uncertainty
      • Levels: Support: 0.7220, Resistance: 0.7249
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ dovish / dairy prices lackluster
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-NZ 10Y / risk-off sentiment
      • Levels: Support: 0.5939, Resistance: 0.5957
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (CH): SNB dovish / Swiss yields low
      • Cross: DXY strength / safe-haven unwinding
      • Levels: Support: 0.7774, Resistance: 0.7795
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Down; EUR/JPY: Up; GBP/JPY: Up
      • Domestic: EUR/GBP: BoE vs ECB; EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY: rate divergence
      • Cross: DXY / risk regime / cross-of-crosses dynamics
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: 0.8647/0.8668; EUR/JPY: 184.39/185.02; GBP/JPY: 212.73/213.87
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields / ETF outflows
      • Cross: DXY strength / risk-off demand limited
      • Levels: Support: 4655.6, Resistance: 4714.2
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand / Gold strength
      • Cross: DXY / risk regime
      • Levels: Support: 7953.000, Resistance: 8418.000
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Geopolitical risk / potential supply disruption
      • Cross: DXY / risk regime
      • Levels: WTI: Support: 96.64, Resistance: 100.35; Brent: Support: 102.90, Resistance: 105.97
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China stimulus / LME stock levels
      • Cross: DXY / global growth proxy
      • Levels: Support: 625.4000, Resistance: 641.4300
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): higher yields / earnings plateau
      • Cross: VIX rising / global risk aversion
      • Levels: Futures support: 7391.00, Resistance: 7420.25, Cash support: 7398.90
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): Real yields / AI bubble potential
      • Cross: Rates sensitive / Rising VIX
      • Levels: Futures support: 29227.50, Resistance: 29399.25
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical rotation out / yields impact
      • Cross: bond-yield reaction
      • Levels: Futures support: 49471, Resistance: 49706
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling strength / Gilt yields rising
      • Cross: global risk aversion / US tone
      • Levels: Support: 22742, Resistance: 22850
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (DE): Lower Bund yields / weaker outlook
      • Cross: US tech weakness / DXY / risk regime
      • Levels: Support: 24204, Resistance: 24362
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (JP): Strong JPY / JGB yields rising slightly
      • Cross: US tech weakness / risk regime
      • Levels: Support: 62393, Resistance: 63385
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Crowded longs / Funding rates high
      • Cross: DXY / risk regime / Nasdaq correlation
      • Levels: Support: 62393, Resistance: 63385

    Positioning watch: AUD/USD and Bitcoin are crowded longs (96th and 83rd percentile, respectively), making them vulnerable to a squeeze lower on any disappointment or USD strength. GBP and JPY are crowded shorts, a positive surprise could trigger a squeeze higher.

    The pain trade: A surprise de-escalation in Middle East tensions combined with a dovish signal from the Fed would trigger a massive short squeeze in USD/JPY and GBP/USD, while simultaneously crushing oil prices and unwinding crowded long positions in AUD and BTC.

  • Gold Slides as Real Yields Climb – Monday, 11 May

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4701.3, down 3.9 points (-0.08%) on the session. The intraday range has been relatively contained, between 4655.6 and 4714.2. This price action sees it sitting below Friday’s New York close after a mild rally last week.

    What’s driving it: Gold is under pressure from rising US real yields, with the 10-year TIPS yield climbing to 1.96% (+2.0bp d/d, as of 2026-05-07). The move in real rates is overshadowing the steady 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which remains at 2.45%. The overall tone is not being helped by Modi’s comments asking Indians to stop buying gold, which is rippling through jewellery stocks.

    • 10Y Real Yield (TIPS): 1.96% (+2.0bp d/d) — a headwind for Gold.
    • Reuters is reporting that Gold is falling on oil-driven inflation fears as Trump rejects Iran peace proposal.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial positions at +163,303 contracts, a modestly long stance but only at the 21st percentile of the 52-week range, suggesting limited squeeze potential at these levels.

    NY session focus: With no major US data releases scheduled for 08:30 ET, focus will likely remain on the interplay between yields and risk sentiment. Key level to watch is the 4650.0 level; a break below could open the door to further downside. The trade that’s working is shorting gold on rallies, while the trade at risk is chasing momentum to the downside if yields consolidate. The pain trade for gold would be a sudden dovish pivot from the Fed, sending real yields lower.

  • Bitcoin Consolidates as Spot ETF Demand Remains Opaque – Monday, 11 May

    Where we are: Bitcoin is trading around $62,400 in pre-market activity, holding steady after an overnight range of $62,393 to $63,385. This puts it slightly above Friday’s New York close, but the cryptocurrency is struggling to break definitively higher. Key resistance remains at the $64,000 level, a break of which could signal a renewed bullish impulse.

    What’s driving it: Bitcoin’s near-term direction is currently unclear pending clarity on spot ETF inflows, which remain the key driver of price action. Binance BTCUSDT perp funding rates are relatively balanced at an annualised 2.77%, suggesting no strong directional bias is currently prevailing. Broader risk sentiment is mixed, with European equities selling off slightly and US futures treading water; the tepid risk appetite provides no immediate catalyst.

    • Balanced Binance funding rates suggest no immediate directional bias among leveraged players.
    • US 10Y real yields are rising (currently 1.96% on FRED), which generally creates a headwind for gold and, by extension, Bitcoin.
    • CFTC data shows Bitcoin non-commercial positioning at the 83rd percentile, suggesting a crowded long trade and elevated risk of a squeeze if sentiment turns negative.

    NY session focus: All eyes are on the spot ETF flows, expected to wire through in the coming hours. A positive print could see Bitcoin test $64,000, while a negative one risks a retest of the $62,000 support. Watch the dollar, with the DXY trading around 97.87. A sustained move above 98.00 would likely pressure BTC. The real pain trade here is a flush lower toward $60,000, triggering stop losses on those crowded longs.

  • Oil Recovers as Geopolitical Tensions Flare – Monday, 11 May

    Snapshot: WTI crude is trading at $98.27, up 0.43% on the session, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raise supply concerns. Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal and drone attacks near Qatar are today’s catalysts.

    • Watch for a break above $100.35 to confirm upside momentum, targeting $102 next.
    • Risk: Further escalation in the Middle East could lead to a significant supply shock.

    Bias into NY: Bullish. The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with the failure of negotiations with Iran, supports higher prices, with a potential test of $100 in sight if tensions persist.

  • Brent Crude Climbs on Middle East Tensions – Monday, 11 May

    Snapshot: Brent Crude is trading at $104.29, up 0.13%, as escalating tensions in the Middle East, specifically President Trump’s rejection of Iran’s peace proposal and drone attacks near Qatar, raise concerns about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Aramco’s report of increased pipeline capacity offers some offset to the geopolitical risk premium.

    • Watch for further developments in the Iran situation; a break above $105.97 could signal further upside.
    • Risk: A de-escalation in the Middle East could lead to a rapid pullback in Brent.

    Bias into NY: Expect continued choppy trading in Brent with an upward bias toward $105.50, driven by ongoing supply-disruption risk premium, even as the DXY remains steady at 97.87 and US yields consolidate.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Friday, 8 May

    Regime: Risk-on, as equity futures surge on hopes of softer US payrolls and bond yields drift lower (US 10Y at 4.357%).

    Today’s market themes:

    • US Payrolls showdown: markets bracing for a potential dovish surprise amid a crowded USD long positioning.
    • Iran tensions: Oil prices remain volatile amid geopolitical instability and supply concerns.
    • Central Bank Divergence: Focus on Lagarde and Bailey speeches while watching BoJ comments regarding JPY.

    The setup: The market is pricing in a weaker-than-expected US jobs report, fueling a rally in risk assets. The crowded USD long position leaves room for a significant squeeze if the data disappoints. Watch US 10Y yield response to payrolls and the DXY level around 97.77.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET USD: Non-Farm Employment Change (forecast 65K, prior 178K)
    • 08:30 ET CAD: Employment Change (forecast 12.9K, prior 14.1K)
    • 13:20 London GBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Fed policy outlook dependent on US data, especially labor market.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment dependent on USD strength, FX cross flows.
      • Levels: Support at 97.50, resistance at 98.20.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (EU): ECB’s rhetoric, core inflation and German Bund yields.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, US-DE 10Y spread favoring EUR, positive risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 1.1700, resistance at 1.1800.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (UK): BoE policy guidance, Gilt yields, services CPI.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, US-UK 10Y spread, risk on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3550, resistance at 1.3650.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ policy, JGB yield curve control, intervention threat.
      • Cross: US 10Y yields, DXY direction, risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 156.00, resistance at 157.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (CA): BoC policy, Employment change data and WTI correlation.
      • Cross: DXY direction, US-CA 10Y yield spread.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3600, resistance at 1.3700.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, US-AU 10Y spread, China growth outlook.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7200, resistance at 0.7250.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (NZ): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, US-NZ 10Y spread, risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 0.5900, resistance at 0.5975.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB stance and Swiss yield curve.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, safe-haven demand.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7750, resistance at 0.7810.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral, EUR/JPY: Bullish, GBP/JPY: Bullish.
      • Domestic: Relative CB policy, relative yield spreads drive direction.
      • Cross: DXY, risk regime, cross-of-crosses dynamics.
      • Levels: Watch key technical levels, sensitive to GBP and JPY crosses.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields trending lower, rising breakevens, central bank demand.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 4700, resistance at 4750.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand expectations, gold-silver ratio.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 8100, resistance at 8200.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Mixed.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Iran tensions, EIA inventory data, OPEC output levels.
      • Cross: DXY, risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Watch inventory reports, supply disruptions.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Positive China growth outlook, LME stocks, supply issues.
      • Cross: DXY, global growth.
      • Levels: Support at 625, resistance at 635.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Earnings season, Fed policy outlook, US yield reaction.
      • Cross: VIX suppression, global sentiment.
      • Levels: Futures resistance at 7420, cash support 7330.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap tech earnings, real yields and AI investments.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity, low VIX environment.
      • Levels: Support at 28800, resistance at 29000.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Industrial earnings, cyclical sentiment.
      • Cross: Bond yields response.
      • Levels: Support at 49500, resistance at 50000.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Global risk, and US macro performance.
      • Levels: Support at 22800, resistance at 22950.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (DE): German Bund yields and broader Eurozone sentiment.
      • Cross: US Tech, DXY, risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 24400, resistance at 24550.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY strength sensitivity, JGB yields, BoJ policy.
      • Cross: US tech, global risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 62500, resistance at 62800.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF inflows, on-chain activity, funding rate.
      • Cross: DXY direction, risk sentiment, and Nasdaq correlation.
      • Levels: Support at $79,000, resistance at $80,500.

    Positioning watch: USD, AUD and BTC are crowded longs, S&P, Nasdaq, GBP, JPY and NZD are crowded shorts. A strong payrolls number will amplify the USD short squeeze while a weak number risks a violent short squeeze in GBP, JPY and Nasdaq.

    The pain trade: A strong US jobs report would trigger a massive USD rally, crush risk assets, and inflict maximum pain on the crowded short positions in GBP, JPY and tech stocks.

  • Gold Breaks $4700 Amid Real Yield Decline – Friday, 8 May

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) currently trades at 4739.5, up 0.85% on the session, having traded in a range of 4690.7-4743.5. Bullion is bid firmly above the psychological 4700 level and is testing the upper end of its recent range, supported by the ongoing decline in real yields. Intraday momentum has accelerated in the last hour, building on gains seen during the Asian session.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver for gold remains the continued decline in US real yields. The 10-year TIPS yield fell 2.0bp to 1.94% earlier this week, providing a tailwind for the precious metal. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is also contributing, rising 3.0bp to 2.45%. The Fed’s Cook speaking on tokenization may be a distraction from the core macro drivers, as traders focus more on the yield curve and inflation expectations, alongside a slightly weaker dollar tone.

    • US 10Y Real Yields are down 2.0bp, underpinning the bullish move in gold.
    • DXY has softened to 97.77, offering further support to the commodity.
    • CFTC data indicates that non-commercial positions in gold are moderately long, leaving room for further upside before squeeze risk becomes acute.

    NY session focus: The key focus for the NY session will be the 08:30 ET US jobs report, with Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate all in play. A weaker-than-expected print could further pressure real yields and lift gold towards 4750. A strong print risks a reversal, with initial support around 4700. Expect choppy trading around the 10:00 ET Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment release. The pain trade for gold is a hawkish surprise in the jobs numbers, triggering a sharp rise in yields and a dollar bid.