Where we are: Bitcoin is trading around $66,850 as of 13:00 London, holding the level but looking heavy. The overnight range has been relatively tight, between $66,300 and $67,200. This level is slightly below yesterday’s New York close, suggesting some mild overnight selling pressure.
What’s driving it: The lack of fresh spot BTC ETF flow data is a concern, as the early April enthusiasm appears to be waning, adding uncertainty. Binance BTCUSDT perps funding is balanced at 0.0076% per 8h, suggesting no overwhelming directional bias, although it’s not steep enough to incentivise shorts. Rising real yields in the US, with the 10Y TIPS at 2.13%, present a headwind by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin; this effect is amplified by a firmer USD, as the broad index sits at 119.2825.
- CFTC data shows net non-commercial Bitcoin positioning is moderately long but has decreased w/w to +1,259 contracts, albeit still in the 79th percentile.
- US 10Y Real Yields rose 3.0bp d/d as of Monday, placing pressure on non-yielding assets.
- The Euro stablecoin project gaining backing of 37 banks could be a longer-term challenge to Bitcoin’s dominance if it gains traction, but it is not a primary mover right now.
NY session focus: All eyes will be on the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 ET. Any hawkish surprises within the minutes could trigger a further sell-off in Bitcoin. Key levels to watch are $66,000, which, if broken decisively, opens the door to a test of $64,500. The trade that’s working is fading rallies near $67,200. The pain trade is a risk-on rally driven by dovish signals in the FOMC minutes, sending BTC through $68,000 and triggering short covering.