Category: Global

  • Bitcoin Sideways as ETF Flows Await Confirmation – Friday, 29 May

    Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,233, down $473 or 0.64% on the day. Intraday range has been $73,102 – $73,838. This price action leaves it slightly below yesterday’s New York close.

    What’s driving it: Bitcoin is seeing muted action as traders await confirmation of spot ETF net flows, with data not yet available. The balanced Binance BTCUSDT perpetual funding rate of 0.0021% per 8h (≈ 2.31% annualised) suggests no immediate directional pressure from leveraged positions. Broader market sentiment is mixed, with a slightly firmer dollar (DXY at 99.01, +0.07%) and US 10-year yields inching up to 4.439% adding a slight headwind. Risk sentiment is constructive, with the VIX at 16.29, but this is not translating into immediate BTC upside.

    • CFTC data shows crowded long positioning, with net non-commercial contracts at +2,112, placing it in the 90th percentile. Squeeze risk remains material.
    • US 10Y real yields remain elevated at 2.09% despite falling inflation expectations, which could suggest rates stay higher for longer, a negative catalyst for risk assets.
    • The FTSE 100 is outperforming its European peers (+0.61%) as traders are hopeful that a newly elected government may be good for the UK market. Bitcoin has not reacted to this signal so far.

    NY session focus: The market will be closely watching for any news out of the US at 08:30 ET, which may lead to a volatile session for the indexes. Focus will also be on incoming spot BTC ETF flow data. Key levels to watch are $73,838 as intraday resistance and $73,102 as intraday support. Given the crowded long positioning, a sharp move below $73,000 could trigger a cascade of liquidations. The pain trade for Bitcoin is a sustained rally above $74,000, squeezing latecomers.

  • US Crude Dives as Ceasefire Hopes Resurface – Friday, 29 May

    Snapshot: WTI crude trades at 87.28, down 1.59% on the session, as reports of a potential US-Iran agreement to ease shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz weighs heavily on sentiment. The market is currently ignoring a modestly firmer DXY at 99.01 and steady US yields.

    • WTI support is eyed at the day’s low of 86.81, with a break potentially opening the door to further downside.
    • Watch for headlines around the 08:30 ET Canadian GDP release, which could introduce some cross-market volatility, even if its direct impact on oil is limited.

    Bias into NY: Bearish on WTI. The prospect of increased oil flows, however tentative, is outweighing any bullish signals from risk sentiment, although the market remains moderately long with net non-commercial positions at the 69th percentile. A confirmed break of 86.81 would accelerate the move lower.

  • Brent Crude Faces Downward Pressure – Friday, 29 May

    Snapshot: Brent Crude is trading at $90.99, down 1.36% on the day, driven by growing expectations of a ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Today’s catalyst is the ongoing optimism surrounding US-Iran talks, despite denials from Iranian state media.

    • Brent is testing the $90.50 intraday low, a breach of which could accelerate the decline.
    • Watch for 08:30 ET CAD GDP which could trigger risk-off flows that further pressure oil.

    Bias into NY: We are biased bearish on Brent, targeting $90, as ceasefire hopes and potential supply increases outweigh positive risk sentiment signaled by rising Asian and European equity markets.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Thursday, 28 May

    Regime: Risk-off, driven by rising Mideast tensions and a flight to safety, reflected in falling US yields and a VIX above 17.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Oil supply scare: Geopolitical risks in the Black Sea and Middle East fuel concerns over energy supply, boosting crude prices.
    • Core PCE watch: Markets brace for key US inflation data, which could dictate the Fed’s near-term policy path.
    • Crowded shorts at risk: GBP, JPY and Nasdaq are crowded short based on the CFTC positioning.

    The setup: Rising geopolitical risks are pushing investors into safe-haven assets, weakening equities and boosting oil. Focus is on the 08:30 ET Core PCE print. A surprise to the upside could trigger a risk-off move, whereas a downside surprise could trigger a rally. US 10Y is at 4.479%.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 14:00 NZT NZD: Annual Budget Release (Medium)
    • 08:30 ET USD: Core PCE Price Index m/m (High) forecast 0.3%, prior 0.3%
    • 08:30 ET USD: Prelim GDP q/q (High) forecast 2.0%, prior 0.7%

    Bias by asset:

    STRICT SILO RULE: For every non-USD asset, the Domestic line MUST contain only domestic content (home central bank / domestic data / domestic yield / domestic political-fiscal driver). USD, DXY, Fed, US yields, and risk regime go in the Cross line — never in Domestic. If no fresh domestic catalyst exists, write “No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response” in Domestic. For commodities, Domestic = real-yields / supply / inventories / flows. For BTC, Domestic = funding / ETF flow / on-chain.

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral to slightly lower.
      • Domestic (US): Fed policy dependent on PCE; US yields are key.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows provide some support; but geopolitical tension is negative.
      • Levels: Support at 99.11, resistance at 99.50.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (EU): Lagarde’s commentary; Bund yields stable; watching sovereign spreads.
      • Cross: DXY weakness offsetting risk-off; US-DE 10Y spread supportive.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.1640, support near 1.1585.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral to bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength limiting upside; risk-off sentiment hurts Cable.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.3430, support at 1.3370.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Neutral to bullish.
      • Domestic (JP): Intervention risk remains high; JGB yields capped by BoJ.
      • Cross: US 10Y still above 4.45%; DXY support; risk-off may trigger unwinds.
      • Levels: Support at 159.30, resistance near 159.65.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Neutral to bullish.
      • Domestic (CA): WTI price support; BoC likely on hold in June.
      • Cross: DXY strength; US-CA 10Y spread holds.
      • Levels: Support around 1.3835, resistance near 1.3870.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (AU): RBA likely to pause; iron ore volatility.
      • Cross: DXY strength; China growth concerns.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.7145, support around 0.7100.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (NZ): Annual budget release; RBNZ expectations muted.
      • Cross: DXY strength limiting upside; risk-off sentiment weighs.
      • Levels: Resistance near 0.5910, support around 0.5865.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB easing bias; Swiss yields suppressed.
      • Cross: Safe-haven demand into USD; DXY strength.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7865, resistance near 0.7900.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral; EUR/JPY: Bearish; GBP/JPY: Bearish.
      • Domestic: ECB vs BoE, BoJ; relative yields.
      • Cross: DXY impact on each leg; risk-off impacting JPY crosses.
      • Levels: Monitor range breaks from current levels.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Falling real yields supporting; breakevens stable.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows; DXY.
      • Levels: Support near 4400, resistance at 4490.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand, Gold-Silver ratio monitoring.
      • Cross: DXY and risk appetite dictate direction.
      • Levels: Support near 7200, resistance at 7500.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Supply concerns, OPEC policy, EIA data.
      • Cross: Risk-off bid; DXY.
      • Levels: Monitor for breakouts above $93.00 and $96.00 respectively.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China demand, LME stock levels, supply side constraints.
      • Cross: Global growth concerns.
      • Levels: Support near $624.00, resistance near $636.00.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Fed policy / US yield reaction; earnings season ongoing.
      • Cross: VIX spikes on geopolitical concern; risk-off tone prevails.
      • Levels: S&P fut: resistance at 7557, support at 7505.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap earnings; real yield sensitivity on long-duration assets.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity and elevated VIX.
      • Levels: Resistance at 30135, support near 29765.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical tone; yield movements influencing industrial/financial sectors.
      • Cross: Bond yield reaction.
      • Levels: Resistance at 50819, support at 50576.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling weakness; Gilt yield reactions.
      • Cross: Global risk; US market sentiment dampening performance.
      • Levels: Resistance near 23390, support around 23190.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields; ECB rhetoric; IFO / ZEW.
      • Cross: US tech weakness impacting; DXY.
      • Levels: Resistance at 25175, support at 24995.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY moves, JGB yields, BoJ comments influencing sentiment.
      • Cross: US tech pressure impacting; overall risk tone.
      • Levels: Resistance near 65165, support around 63880.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Funding rates, ETF flows, and on-chain data under pressure.
      • Cross: DXY is supportive but broader risk-off pulls it down.
      • Levels: Resistance near 74500, support around 72500.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded shorts in GBP, JPY and Nasdaq and crowded longs in AUD, Copper and Bitcoin. Any positive surprise from economic data (especially the US PCE) or easing of geopolitical tensions could trigger a short squeeze in GBP, JPY and Nasdaq.

    The pain trade: A weaker-than-expected Core PCE print would trigger a relief rally in risk assets, squeezing shorts in GBP, JPY and Nasdaq, and pressuring the DXY and pushing real-rates lower.

  • Gold Plunges to Two-Month Low on Real Yield Surge – Thursday, 28 May

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4452.8, down 39.2 points or 0.87% intraday. The overnight range has been between 4396.2 and 4492.8. This price action breaks the two-month low, extending losses seen in the Asian and European sessions.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver behind the gold sell-off is the marked increase in US real yields. While TIPS yields have recently fallen -6.0bp, inflationary pressures stoking the expectation of further hawkish policy and rate-hikes for longer, are keeping downward pressure on Gold. This is compounded by a broadly stronger dollar, although the DXY is currently down -0.13% at 99.13. Recent speeches from Fed officials Jefferson and Cook haven’t offered any dovish signals. Furthermore, news of fresh US strikes on Iranian military sites is adding to the pressure, diminishing gold’s safe-haven appeal even as it fuels inflationary concerns.

    • US 10Y real yields remain at an elevated 2.1%, even after the recent -6.0bp dip.
    • The prospect of the Fed maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period diminishes gold’s allure as a non-yielding asset.
    • Speculator positioning is modestly long, with net non-commercial positions at +159,833 contracts, leaving gold vulnerable to further downside pressure.

    NY session focus: The key event to watch today is the 08:30 ET release of Core PCE Price Index and Prelim GDP figures, as these numbers will likely dictate the next leg in real yields and thus gold. If the PCE data comes in hotter than the forecast 0.3%, expect a further spike in real yields and a test of the 4396.2 low. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected print could offer a temporary reprieve, targeting 4492.8. The trade that’s working is shorting gold on rallies. The pain trade would be a significant dovish surprise, sparking a short squeeze targeting 4550.

  • Bitcoin pressured as crowded longs weigh – Thursday, 28 May

    Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading at 73404, down 996 points or 1.34% on the day, sitting toward the lower end of its intraday range of 72613 to 74674. Ethereum is similarly pressured at 1989, down 1.47%. The move lower comes after a mixed Asian and European session, with risk assets showing modest weakness into the New York open.

    What’s driving it: The dominant driver at the moment appears to be the crowded long positioning in Bitcoin, with net non-commercial positions at the 90th percentile. While Binance BTCUSDT perpetual funding is balanced at 0.0100% per 8h, the sheer size of the long positions raises squeeze risk on any disappointment. Broader risk-off sentiment, as seen in the S&P 500 futures down 0.24%, is amplifying the move lower. Traders are also cautious ahead of key US data releases at 08:30 ET.

    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial Bitcoin positions at the 90th percentile, suggesting a crowded long and squeeze risk.
    • S&P 500 futures are down 0.24%, indicating a broader risk-off environment impacting Bitcoin.
    • The US 10-year yield is down 2.2 bps at 4.479%, a slight tailwind for risk assets, but not enough to offset the positioning overhang.

    NY session focus: The primary focus for the NY session will be the 08:30 ET release of Core PCE Price Index and Prelim GDP data. Stronger-than-expected data could trigger a further squeeze of Bitcoin longs, pushing prices towards the 72600 support level. Conversely, weak data might provide a temporary relief rally, targeting the 74000 level initially. The trade that’s working is shorting BTC on rallies into resistance. The biggest risk is a surprise resurgence in ETF inflows after the US data dump. The pain trade is a sustained break above 74700, triggering a short squeeze to 75500.

  • WTI Crude Bounces on Renewed Geopolitical Risks – Thursday, 28 May

    Snapshot: WTI crude is trading at $90.52, up 1.20% on the session, rebounding from recent losses as rising tensions between the US and Iran raise concerns about supply disruptions. Today’s key event is the 08:30 ET release of Core PCE and Prelim GDP figures, which could influence the dollar and broader risk sentiment.

    • WTI’s intraday high of $92.51 marks initial resistance; a break above this level could signal further upside.
    • Watch for volatility around the 08:30 ET data releases; weaker growth and stable inflation could weigh on the dollar and boost crude, but the reverse is also true.

    Bias into NY: We are cautiously bullish on WTI into the NY session, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions; a break above $92.51 would suggest further upside toward $95, though stronger-than-expected GDP could temper gains by supporting the dollar.

  • North Sea Oil Eyes $95 as Iran Tensions Flare – Thursday, 28 May

    Snapshot: Brent is currently trading at $93.92, up 0.17% on the session. Renewed tensions between the US and Iran are weakening expectations for a near-term agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, driving the price higher.

    • A break above $95.00 could trigger further upside momentum given positioning is neutral.
    • Risk lies in a surprise announcement regarding de-escalation of tensions between the US and Iran.

    Bias into NY: Expect a grind higher toward $95.00, contingent on no surprises from the 08:30 ET US data releases; DXY stability near 99.00 offers support.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Wednesday, 27 May

    Regime: Mixed. VIX sits at 16.59, while US 2Y yields are edging higher and the DXY hovers around 98.95, signaling risk-off sentiment battling positive momentum.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Strait of Hormuz tension eases: Oil prices plummet on reports of progress restoring shipping through the Strait, impacting commodity currencies.
    • Australian CPI miss: Cooler-than-expected Australian inflation data pressure the AUD, raising RBA policy questions.
    • RBNZ telegraphs tightening: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds steady but signals future rate hikes, boosting the Kiwi.

    The setup: Oil’s sharp drop after Iran’s signal about Strait of Hormuz shipping is cascading through markets. Watch CAD and commodity FX for further weakness if oil sustains its losses. A break below $87.80 in WTI could trigger a further sell-off.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 11:30 AEST AUD: CPI y/y (forecast 4.4%, prior 4.6%)
    • 14:00 NZT NZD: Official Cash Rate (forecast 2.25%, prior 2.25%)
    • 09:00 JST JPY: BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Sideways.
      • Domestic (US): Fed signaling mixed / inflation expectations remain sticky.
      • Cross: Oil impact / safe-haven demand ebb and flow.
      • Levels: Support 98.80 / Resistance 99.20.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (EU): ECB hawks vs doves battle / Bund yields rangebound.
      • Cross: DXY weakness offset by risk-off flow / US-DE 10Y widening.
      • Levels: Support 1.1630 / Resistance 1.1680.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): BoE cut expectations building / Gilt yields under pressure.
      • Cross: DXY strength cap / US-UK 10Y divergence.
      • Levels: Support 1.3400 / Resistance 1.3480.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish, but watch intervention.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ cautious / Ueda verbal intervention / JGB constrained.
      • Cross: US 10Y supportive / risk-on flow offset by intervention threat.
      • Levels: Support 159.00 / Resistance 159.50.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CA): BoC dovish / CAD vulnerable to oil rout.
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-CA 10Y supportive.
      • Levels: Support 1.3800 / Resistance 1.3850.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (AU): Weak CPI raises RBA pause risk.
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-AU 10Y negative spread / China uncertainty.
      • Levels: Support 0.7100 / Resistance 0.7180.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ hawkish signal / OCR supports.
      • Cross: DXY strength offset by domestic policy tailwind.
      • Levels: Support 0.5850 / Resistance 0.5920.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength / safe-haven fading.
      • Levels: Support 0.7820 / Resistance 0.7880.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): Mixed.
      • Domestic: Relative BoE/ECB/BoJ stance driving flows.
      • Cross: DXY chop / risk sentiment mixed.
      • Levels: Monitor individual charts for key levels.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields hurt gold / CB demand slows.
      • Cross: DXY strength / reduced safe-haven bid.
      • Levels: Support 4450 / Resistance 4500.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand concerns / Gold underperformance.
      • Cross: DXY strength / risk aversion fading.
      • Levels: Support 7350 / Resistance 7500.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Strait of Hormuz progress weighs / EIA build risk.
      • Cross: DXY strength headwind / global growth worries.
      • Levels: WTI Support $87.50 / Resistance $90.00.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth concerns / LME inventories rise.
      • Cross: DXY impact / global growth proxy weakens.
      • Levels: Support 630 / Resistance 640.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Sideways.
      • Domestic (US): Earnings season tapering / Fed watch / yield sensitivity.
      • Cross: VIX stable / global growth concerns offsetting.
      • Levels: Futures support 7530 / resistance 7570.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Sideways.
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap results mixed / real yield pressure building.
      • Cross: Higher rates sensitivity / VIX benign.
      • Levels: Support 30000 / Resistance 30400.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Sideways.
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical earnings mixed / bond yields a factor.
      • Cross: Sentiment dependent on yields / relative valuation.
      • Levels: Support 50500 / Resistance 50800.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling weakness helps / commodity strength supports.
      • Cross: Global risk on / US data impact.
      • Levels: Support 23300 / Resistance 23550.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (DE): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US tech influence / DXY impact / risk tone.
      • Levels: Support 25200 / Resistance 25400.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY intervention risk / profit-taking after rally.
      • Cross: US tech / risk off.
      • Levels: Support 64500 / Resistance 65500.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Sideways.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flows slowing / funding rates elevated.
      • Cross: DXY impact / risk correlated.
      • Levels: Support $75000 / Resistance $76000.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded short positions in GBP and JPY, suggesting squeeze risk if data surprises positively. AUD and Copper are crowded longs, vulnerable to disappointment.

    The pain trade: A strong US data print today, particularly on inflation, would force a repricing of Fed expectations, hammering bonds and risk assets as the DXY surges.

  • Gold Slides as Real Yields Steady, Mideast Tensions Ease – Wednesday, 27 May

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4476.0, down 1.46% on the day, and below the overnight range of 4454.6-4560.1. The current price is well below yesterday’s New York close, reflecting the ongoing pressure. The metal seems to be struggling to find a foothold amid a confluence of factors.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver appears to be the stability in US real yields, currently at 2.16%, following recent declines that had supported gold. Breakeven inflation remaining steady at 2.4% is also providing limited upside catalyst for the metal, especially as risk appetite has returned. This has been further compounded by perceived easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as gold’s safe-haven appeal diminishes.

    • Federal Reserve minutes from the discount rate meeting on April 20 and 29 revealed no immediate concerns over inflation or economic slowdown, reducing bets on near-term rate cuts and diminishing gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
    • Net non-commercial positioning in gold remains modestly long, at +159,833 contracts, and is at only the 6th percentile, suggesting there is room for further long liquidation.
    • Goldman Sachs raised its S&P 500 target to 8,000, signaling confidence in risk assets and further diminishing the relative attractiveness of gold.

    NY session focus: Watch the 08:30 ET data releases carefully; any surprises in core inflation or jobless claims could reignite volatility in real yields and provide a short-term directional catalyst. Key levels to watch are 4450 as immediate support and 4500 as resistance. The trade that’s working right now is fading rallies as the market continues to price in diminished geopolitical risk and stable real yields. The major risk is a sharp deterioration in the Middle East situation, reigniting safe-haven demand. The pain trade for Gold is a sharp rally in US equities.

  • Bitcoin Struggles as Dollar Strength Weighs – Wednesday, 27 May

    Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading at $75,672, down $137 or 0.18% on the day. The intraday range has been contained between $75,200 and $76,061. This level is slightly below yesterday’s New York close, with Bitcoin struggling to maintain upward momentum amidst broader market jitters.

    What’s driving it: Bitcoin’s sideways action appears to be driven by balanced funding rates on Binance perps, currently at 4.95% annualized, suggesting neither excessive bullishness nor bearishness. The absence of fresh ETF flow data and on-chain metrics leaves price action exposed to external factors. DXY strength, currently at 98.95, is contributing to downward pressure, while the rise in US 2-year yields to 4.041% dampens risk appetite.

    • Binance BTCUSDT perp funding holding balanced around 4.95%.
    • US 2Y yield ticking up to 4.041%
    • Bitcoin’s net non-commercial positioning remains at the 90th percentile, indicating crowded longs and squeeze risk if the price moves lower.

    NY session focus: Keep a close eye on risk sentiment as US equity futures are indicating a positive open, with S&P 500 futures up 0.30%. Traders will be watching for any surprises in the ongoing Iran talks, with Trump’s cabinet meeting moved to the White House. Key levels to watch are $76,000 as initial resistance and $75,000 as immediate support. The working trade has been fading intraday rallies. The at-risk trade is adding to longs. The pain trade here is a surprise risk-on move triggered by a breakthrough in the Iran negotiations, combined with a large spot ETF inflow which could trigger a short squeeze and push Bitcoin through $76,500.

  • Oil Plummets as Supply Fears Ease – Wednesday, 27 May

    Snapshot: WTI Crude is down 5.14% to $88.69, driven by reports of progress in restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The Fed’s April discount rate meeting minutes are a secondary factor, suggesting continued vigilance on inflation. No major US data before the NY open.

    • Watch for further confirmation of Hormuz Strait traffic; breach of $87.80 (day low) signals further downside.
    • Risk: Secretary Rubio warns that any peace agreement could still take several days to complete.

    Bias into NY: Bearish. Easing supply concerns are likely to pressure US Oil further, targeting a break of the $87.80 intraday low, with the DXY hovering near 99.00 offering little support.

  • North Sea Crude Collapses on Iran Deal Hopes – Wednesday, 27 May

    Snapshot: Brent is trading at 92.52, down 4.03% after Iranian state television signaled a commitment to restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The potential for increased supply and eased geopolitical tensions is weighing heavily on prices. No major US data releases before the NY open.

    • Breaching the 92.00 level could trigger further downside, targeting the 90.00 handle.
    • Focus will be on any official confirmation from the US side regarding the Iran deal, which could amplify the current move.

    Bias into NY: Bearish, with a break below 92.00 likely as the market prices in the prospect of increased Iranian oil supply and easing of geopolitical risk. DXY strength is a secondary headwind near term.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Tuesday, 26 May

    Regime: Risk-off as higher real yields trigger broad USD strength, with VIX hovering at 16.76 and US 10Y at 4.486%.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Real-rate repricing: Rising US real yields exert downward pressure on risk assets and commodity prices, favoring USD strength.
    • AUD CPI impact: Australian inflation data sets the tone for RBA policy expectations, with potential for a squeeze on crowded AUD longs.
    • RBNZ decision: RBNZ decision and monetary policy statement in focus.

    The setup: US real yields continue their ascent, tightening financial conditions and prompting a broad risk-off move. The crowded AUD long is vulnerable to downside surprise from CPI, and traders will be watching the RBNZ closely. Look for opportunities to fade rallies in risk assets. Support for S&P futures at 7525.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 10:00 ET USD: CB Consumer Confidence (forecast 91.9, prior 92.8)
    • 11:30 AEST AUD: CPI y/y (forecast 4.4%, prior 4.6%)
    • 14:00 NZT NZD: RBNZ Official Cash Rate (forecast 2.25%, prior 2.25%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Fed hawkish tone / resilient US data / rising US yields
      • Cross: Global risk aversion / EUR weakness / safe-haven demand
      • Levels: Resistance 99.11, support 98.95
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (EU): ECB dovishness / weak HICP / widening sovereign spreads
      • Cross: Strong DXY / widening US-DE 10Y spread / risk-off flows
      • Levels: Resistance 1.1645, support 1.1624
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): BoE caution / soft services CPI / underperforming Gilts
      • Cross: Strong DXY / widening US-UK 10Y spread / risk aversion
      • Levels: Resistance 1.3505, support 1.3465
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ ultra-dovish / no wage growth / intervention rhetoric
      • Cross: Rising US 10Y / DXY strength / risk-on supports carry
      • Levels: Resistance 159.24, support 158.90
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CA): BoC cautious / sluggish CPI / softer WTI correlation
      • Cross: Strong DXY / widening US-CA 10Y spread
      • Levels: Resistance 1.3821, support 1.3799
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (AU): CPI miss / weaker Iron-Ore, Copper
      • Cross: Strong DXY / US-AU 10Y widening / China slowdown fears
      • Levels: Resistance 0.7176, support 0.7156
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ dovishness / weak dairy prices
      • Cross: Strong DXY / risk-off / US-NZ 10Y divergence
      • Levels: Resistance 0.5872, support 0.5840
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB active easing / low CPI / Swiss yields repressed
      • Cross: DXY strength / unwinding safe-haven positions
      • Levels: Resistance 0.7855, support 0.7827
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP Bullish, EUR/JPY Bullish, GBP/JPY Bearish
      • Domestic: Relative central bank stance / relative yields
      • Cross: DXY influence / risk appetite dynamics
      • Levels: Use individual daily ranges to guide
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields / declining breakevens / soft CB demand
      • Cross: Strong DXY / risk-off dampening safe-haven bid
      • Levels: Resistance 4615.2, support 4534.4
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Weaker industrial demand / rising Gold-Silver ratio
      • Cross: Strong DXY / Risk-off flows
      • Levels: Resistance 7870.300, support 7576.000
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Geopolitical tensions / OPEC policy / tight supply
      • Cross: DXY pullback/ risk-on flows
      • Levels: Brent resistance 97.07, WTI support 90.37
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth concerns / rising LME stocks
      • Cross: DXY strength / risk-off sentiment
      • Levels: Resistance 646.9700, support 636.3200
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): High valuations / Fed hawkish / rising US yields
      • Cross: Elevated VIX / global growth concerns
      • Levels: S&P 500 futures resistance 7565, cash support 7463
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap earnings risk / elevated real yields / AI hype fade
      • Cross: Higher rates sensitivity / VIX volatility
      • Levels: Resistance 29972.25, support 29745.50
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical slowdown / rising rates hurting industrials
      • Cross: Bond yield upside
      • Levels: Resistance 51132, support 50865
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response
      • Cross: Global risk sentiment
      • Levels: Resistance 23419, support 23169
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (DE): EU political uncertainty
      • Cross: US tech weakness / strong DXY / rising rates
      • Levels: Resistance 25360, support 25181
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (JP): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response
      • Cross: US tech volatility / risk-off sentiment
      • Levels: Resistance 65309, support 64616
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Funding rates too high / ETF selling / on-chain
      • Cross: DXY strength / risk-off / Nasdaq correlation
      • Levels: Resistance 77521, support 76415

    Positioning watch: CFTC data reveals crowded longs in AUD and Copper (>96th percentile) making them vulnerable to negative data surprises. There’s crowded short exposure in GBP, JPY, and Nasdaq.

    The pain trade: A dovish RBNZ or a surprise CPI beat from Australia igniting a short squeeze in AUD, JPY, and GBP while simultaneously reversing the USD rally.

  • Gold Under Pressure as Real Yields Climb – Tuesday, 26 May

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4556.5, down -48.9 or -1.06% intraday, after a choppy overnight session spanning 4534.4-4615.2. The move lower accelerates the pullback from recent highs, and places Gold well below Friday’s NY close.

    What’s driving it: The primary headwind for gold continues to be the rise in US real yields. 10-year TIPS yields climbed 5bp as of Friday, reaching 2.18%, and the trend remains upward, diminishing gold’s appeal as a store of value. While breakeven inflation expectations are also slightly higher, up 1bp to 2.4% as of Friday, the real yield rise is dominating the narrative. Renewed US-Iran tensions are clouding the interest rate outlook according to some wires, but so far any geopolitical safety bid is being overwhelmed by the macro picture. The modest net-long positioning in gold (42.1% of OI) suggests limited squeeze potential to the upside.

    • US 10Y Real Yields at 2.18% and trending higher.
    • Net non-commercial positioning in gold sits at the 6th percentile, suggesting scope for further downside.
    • The DXY is firmer at 99.05, applying additional pressure.

    NY session focus: The key event for the US session will be the 10:00 ET release of CB Consumer Confidence (forecast 91.9, previous 92.8). Stronger data could fuel further upside in real yields and pressure gold lower, while a miss could provide a temporary reprieve. Key levels to watch are the overnight low of 4534.4 as initial support, and then 4500 as a major psychological level. On the upside, 4600 now acts as immediate resistance. The current trade is short gold against rising real yields. The pain trade is a surprise dovish signal from the Fed and a sharp reversal in US yields, triggering a short squeeze in Gold.