Snapshot: WTI crude futures are pulling back after yesterday’s gains, with news of potential US-Iran negotiations weighing on sentiment. The retracement comes despite a moderately long speculator positioning in WTI, with net non-commercial holdings at +169,877 contracts. Watch for volatility around the 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales release.
- Initial support lies at $102, a break below which could trigger further unwinding of long positions.
- Risk of a sharper correction increases if US-Iran talks gain traction, but supply concerns in the Strait of Hormuz remain a key upside catalyst.
Bias into NY: Mildly bearish into the NY session as markets price in reduced geopolitical risk, but we expect dips to be bought near $101.50 given the already elevated positioning and fragile geopolitical backdrop.