Where we are: Bitcoin is trading around $62,300, finding soft support after retreating from its overnight range high near $63,000. This level is below the prior NY close and suggests a continuation of yesterday’s softer tone. The market is currently awaiting today’s key US CPI print, which could inject volatility into the session.
What’s driving it: Bitcoin’s near-term direction is currently being dictated by technical factors after a period of relative calm in underlying drivers. Binance BTCUSDT perp funding is balanced at 0.0027% per 8h, or ~3% annualized, indicating neither strong bullish nor bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. Spot ETF flows are pending and on-chain data is not yet wired, so there is no strong domestic catalyst in play this morning. Macro crosscurrents, specifically the 08:30 ET US CPI release, will be the major factor in today’s price action. Elevated CPI prints will likely push US yields higher, weighing on Bitcoin.
- CFTC data shows net non-commercial positioning in Bitcoin at +1,441 contracts, down 951 w/w but still at the 83rd percentile, raising the risk of a squeeze on any downside surprises.
- The US 10Y Real Yield (TIPS) has fallen to 1.93%, a tailwind for gold and, to some extent, Bitcoin as an alternative asset.
- Michael Terpin’s prediction of a Bitcoin correction before another bull market phase, while not an immediate driver, could be weighing on sentiment and keeping a lid on upside breakouts.
NY session focus: The main event is the 08:30 ET US CPI data release. A strong print (CPI y/y above 3.7%) should send US 10Y yields higher, potentially pushing BTC towards $60,000. Conversely, a soft print could fuel a relief rally towards $64,000, although resistance is expected to hold. Focus should be on watching the initial reaction to the data and fading any knee-jerk moves. The passing of the Fed Chair nomination vote (11:59 ET) is fully priced in. The pain trade for Bitcoin would be a stagnant CPI print that leaves the market in limbo, fostering indecision and choppy price action.