Category: Global

  • BTC/USD Stability Amidst Macro Uncertainty – Friday, 8 May

    Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading at $80,117, up $381 (+0.48%) on the day, holding within its overnight range of $79,231-$80,483. The asset is showing resilience after Coinbase posted a steeper-than-expected Q1 loss after yesterday’s close. ETH is lagging, essentially flat on the day.

    What’s driving it: Bitcoin’s funding rates on Binance are slightly negative (-4.74% annualized), suggesting balanced positioning despite the recent rally. However, the crowded long positioning amongst speculators (+2,392 contracts, 96th percentile) leaves BTCUSD vulnerable to a squeeze on any significant bearish catalyst. The strength in US equity futures is providing a tailwind, but the market is clearly awaiting today’s key US data prints before committing to a firm direction.

    • Binance BTCUSDT perp funding rates at -0.0043% per 8h (annualized ≈ -4.74%).
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial positions at the 96th percentile, highlighting squeeze risk.
    • S&P 500 futures are up 0.92%, indicating a positive risk sentiment.

    NY session focus: All eyes are on the 08:30 ET US employment data (Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Unemployment Rate). We are watching for a downside surprise in Non-Farm Payrolls coupled with a rise in the unemployment rate; such a result would likely trigger a risk-on move that could see BTC test the upper end of its recent range. The UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data at 10:00 ET will offer further clues on the outlook for the US economy. Watch for a break above $80,483 to confirm the upside move; failure to sustain above $80,000 could lead to a retest of $79,231. The pain trade is a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, triggering a sharp pullback towards $78,000 as the USD bid returns.

  • Oil Slides as Ceasefire Hopes Offset Hormuz Tensions – Friday, 8 May

    Snapshot: WTI Crude trades at 95.10, down 2.35% on the session. President Trump’s comments reinforcing the Iran ceasefire are weighing on prices despite ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Watch for the 08:30 ET US employment data, especially Non-Farm Payrolls, for further direction.

    • Key support is seen at the day’s low of 93.86.
    • The risk of renewed clashes between US and Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz remains a potential upside catalyst.

    Bias into NY: Expect continued downside pressure on US Crude as long as diplomatic hopes persist; a break below 93.86 opens the door to further losses. The weaker DXY is offering only limited support.

  • Brent Crude Slides on Trump’s Ceasefire Comments – Friday, 8 May

    Snapshot: Brent is down 2.06% to $100.43, driven lower by President Trump’s comments reinforcing hopes for a ceasefire with Iran. This comes despite earlier reports of fresh clashes in the Strait of Hormuz and continues to pressure North Sea crude.

    • Watch for volatility around the 08:30 ET US jobs data (Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate), which could impact risk sentiment and the dollar.
    • Geopolitical risk remains elevated; any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz could quickly reverse the current downside.

    Bias into NY: Expect continued downside pressure on Brent Crude below $100 if the US data prints soft and reinforces the ceasefire narrative. A break above $102.93 would negate this view.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Thursday, 7 May

    Regime: Mixed, with VIX holding steady at 17.38 and US yields slightly lower, suggesting a cautious risk-on sentiment tempered by geopolitical tensions.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Mideast Peace Potential: Easing oil supply concerns dominate, pressuring crude and boosting risk assets.
    • Dollar Weakness: DXY continues its descent, supporting EUR, GBP, AUD, and gold.
    • Earnings Rotation: Focus shifts to industrial and financial earnings in the US after tech-led rally.

    The setup: Markets are pricing in a higher probability of a Middle East peace deal, driving WTI down nearly 6% to $90.21. This is providing a tailwind for risk assets, especially equities. However, crowded positioning in USD and Aussie could trigger a squeeze on any hawkish surprises. Watch US Unemployment Claims at 08:30 ET.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET USD: Unemployment Claims (forecast 205K, prior 189K)
    • 10:00 ET USD: Factory Orders (prior 0.8%)
    • 14:00 BST GBP: BoE’s Breeden speaks on Inflation

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): Fed likely to remain cautious; watch claims data.
      • Cross: Risk-on sentiment weighing; EUR and GBP strength.
      • Levels: Resistance at 97.90, support at 97.65.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (EU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, positive risk sentiment, US-DE 10Y widening.
      • Levels: Support at 1.1740, resistance at 1.1800.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, boosted by positive risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3590, resistance at 1.3650.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US 10Y stable, risk-on environment, intervention risk high.
      • Levels: Support at 156.00, resistance at 156.50.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (CA): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: WTI weakness, DXY direction, US-CA 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3620, resistance at 1.3650.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, China growth optimism.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7230, resistance at 0.7270.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (NZ): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, positive risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 0.5950, resistance at 0.5990.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, safe-haven outflows into risk-on.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7770, resistance at 0.7800.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP neutral, EUR/JPY up, GBP/JPY up
      • Domestic: Relative hawkishness of BoE priced in; BoJ dovish.
      • Cross: Risk-on favoring JPY crosses; DXY impact on EUR/GBP.
      • Levels: Monitor ranges, relative yield direction key.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising as breakevens rise; CB demand supportive.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, safe haven demand diminishing.
      • Levels: Support at 4700, resistance at 4765.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand supportive.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, positive risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 8000, resistance at 8250.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Peace deal/higher supply.
      • Cross: DXY strength would add to move lower; risk aversion would add to move lower.
      • Levels: Support at 90.00, resistance at 96.00.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China rebound expectations/LME-stock
      • Cross: Global growth proxy; Dollar strength a headwind
      • Levels: Support at 615, resistance at 625
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Earnings momentum; rates stabilize.
      • Cross: Positive global tone, VIX suppression.
      • Levels: Futures support at 7380, resistance at 7410, cash support 7300.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap tech earnings supportive/ AI narrative.
      • Cross: Lower rates sensitivity, high beta.
      • Levels: Resistance at 28800, support 28600.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Rebound in industrial earnings; cyclical shift.
      • Cross: Responding positively to bond-yield relief.
      • Levels: Resistance near 50200, support at 49900.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Global risk, benefiting from oil decline.
      • Levels: Support at 22800, resistance at 23000.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields stable; weak economic data.
      • Cross: Watching US tech strength; risk-on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 24850, resistance at 25000.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness driving earnings.
      • Cross: Catching up with US tech performance; risk-on buying.
      • Levels: Support at 62000, resistance at 63000.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flow-dependent, funding elevated.
      • Cross: risk-regime, positive overall, high correlation to tech.
      • Levels: Support at 80500, resistance at 81700.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded longs in AUD, Copper, and Bitcoin (>90th percentile) and crowded shorts in JPY, GBP, and Nasdaq (

    The pain trade: A hawkish surprise from the US Unemployment Claims, triggering a USD rally and sending risk assets lower, would hurt the most positions.

  • Gold Breaks Two-Week High on US-Iran Peace Hopes – Thursday, 7 May

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4755.8, up 55.3 points or 1.18% on the day, having traded in a range of 4694.0 to 4763.4. This represents a two-week high for the precious metal. Gold is currently extending gains seen in the Asian and European sessions, buoyed by hopes of a US-Iran peace deal.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver appears to be the potential for a US-Iran peace agreement, with reports suggesting a memorandum of understanding has been proposed to formally end the conflict, which has seen oil prices tumble and inflation worries ease, supporting gold’s rise above $4,700. The drop in oil prices, driven by peace hopes, is a major factor, easing inflationary pressures and reducing expectations of continued restrictive central bank policies. While real yields are a headwind, rising 1.0bp to 1.96% as of yesterday, the risk-on sentiment driven by potential peace, coupled with a softer DXY at 97.69, is currently outweighing this.

    • The Reuters wire at 01:23 noted that gold climbed to a two-week high “as US-Iran peace hopes push oil lower”.
    • The 10Y breakeven inflation rate fell 5.0bp yesterday, potentially signaling reduced inflationary concerns.
    • Despite Goolsbee’s warning about sticky inflation, the market is pricing in lower inflation expectations and reacting positively to the possibility of geopolitical stability.

    NY session focus: The key event for the NY session will be the Unemployment Claims data at 08:30 ET; a significantly higher-than-expected print (forecast 205K vs. previous 189K) could potentially trigger a flight to safety, further boosting gold. Watch for a potential breakout above intraday highs of 4763.4. A failure to sustain gains above 4750 could see a retracement towards 4725-4730. The current trade is clearly long gold on geopolitical de-escalation. The risk for this trade is a hawkish surprise from central bank speakers, or a reversal in peace talks. The pain trade is a sudden resurgence of inflation fears and a corresponding spike in real yields, sending Gold sharply lower.

  • Bitcoin Wobbles as ETF Flows Await Confirmation – Thursday, 7 May

    Where we are: Bitcoin currently trades at 81177, down 370 points (-0.45%) on the day, caught between 80589 and 81715. The overnight range is holding, keeping BTCUSD just below yesterday’s NY close. Ethereum is showing relatively more weakness, down nearly 1% at 2334.

    What’s driving it: Near-term price action hinges on confirmation of spot ETF net flows, currently pending. Binance BTCUSDT perp funding is balanced at -0.0026% per 8h, suggesting no immediate directional pressure from leveraged traders. Broader risk sentiment is mildly positive, evidenced by gains in equity futures, while Treasury yields are drifting lower, offering limited support to BTC; the dollar is modestly softer but does not appear to be a significant factor.

    • Spot Bitcoin ETF net flow data is pending and will be a key catalyst in the near term.
    • Unemployment Claims are due at 08:30 ET; deviation from the 205K forecast could trigger a risk-on or risk-off response.
    • CFTC data shows Bitcoin net non-commercial positioning is crowded long, in the 96th percentile, increasing the risk of a squeeze on negative news.

    NY session focus: Watch the 08:30 ET Unemployment Claims release for an initial risk impulse. A weaker-than-expected print could send BTCUSD toward the day’s high of 81715; stronger claims could see a retest of the overnight low at 80589. The crowded long positioning makes Bitcoin vulnerable to a sharp correction if the ETF flow disappoints or risk sentiment sours. The trade that’s working is riding the dips, but that’s at risk if claims beat. The pain trade is a sustained break above 82000 forcing shorts to cover into strength.

  • WTI Crude Crumbles on Middle East Deal Hopes – Thursday, 7 May

    Snapshot: WTI Crude is trading at $90.21, down 5.86% on the session, driven by reports of a potential Middle East peace deal that could ease supply concerns. The market now awaits the 08:30 ET US Unemployment Claims release, although geopolitical news flow is likely to remain the dominant driver.

    • A break below $90.00 in WTI could trigger further selling pressure.
    • Watch for confirmation or denial of the peace deal from official sources; Trump’s cautionary comments introduce uncertainty.

    Bias into NY: Bearish, with potential for further downside to $88.00 if the peace deal gains traction, while a DXY hovering near 97.70 provides only limited support. We see risk tilted to further selling pressure given elevated geopolitical risk premia.

  • Brent Crude Hammered by Middle East Peace Deal Hopes – Thursday, 7 May

    Snapshot: Brent crude trades at $96.37, down $5.52 on the session, driven lower by reports of a potential Middle East peace deal. The prospect of reopened Strait of Hormuz is weighing heavily. Watch for the 08:30 ET US Unemployment Claims data.

    • Immediate support likely around the $96.00 level, the bottom of today’s range.
    • Risk of further downside pressure should Trump’s reservations about an Iran deal solidify or the Unemployment Claims print surprises to the upside.

    Bias into NY: Bearish on Brent, expecting further downside towards $95.00 if peace deal momentum persists, amplified by a potential recovery in the DXY as US yields stabilize.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Wednesday, 6 May

    Regime: Risk-on, fuelled by falling US yields and hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East; VIX is elevated but failing to hold gains.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Geopolitical relief rally: Equities and gold gain on reports of a potential US-Iran deal, sending oil sharply lower.
    • Dovish ECB spillovers: European yields are sharply lower after ECB commentary and stable wage data, supporting European equities.
    • Crowded short squeeze: Risk assets supported by potential short squeeze with CFTC data showing traders are heavily short JPY and Nasdaq.

    The setup: Oil’s sharp decline is the key driver today, prompting a rotation into risk assets, and supporting gold. The trade is to fade the rally in gold as real yields remain positive. Key risk is a breakdown in the US-Iran deal, which would send oil prices sharply higher again and reverse the risk-on tone.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:15 ET USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (118K vs 62K)
    • 10:00 ET CAD: Ivey PMI (49.9 vs 49.7)
    • 16:15 ET CAD: BOC Gov Macklem Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): US data will be crucial in determining the next direction.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment and falling US yields are weighing.
      • Levels: Support at 97.50, resistance at 98.00.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (EU): Lower Bund yields are supporting as ECB turns dovish.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY and positive risk sentiment are supportive.
      • Levels: Support at 1.1700, resistance at 1.1800.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness and risk appetite are key drivers.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3550, resistance at 1.3650.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (JP): Intervention risk remains, limiting JPY weakness.
      • Cross: Falling US 10Y yields and a weaker DXY are pressuring.
      • Levels: Support at 155.00, resistance at 157.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (CA): BoC speakers watch to see if rate cuts are coming.
      • Cross: USD weakness offset by lower WTI, US-CA 10Y stable.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3580, resistance at 1.3650.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Copper price rise and DXY weakness, China growth hopes aiding.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7200, resistance at 0.7280.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ speakers in focus, impact on kiwi to be assessed.
      • Cross: DXY weakness and risk-on, limited by US yield impact.
      • Levels: Support at 0.5900, resistance at 0.6000.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness and haven demand waning.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7770, resistance at 0.7830.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): Mixed
      • Domestic: Relative CB divergence is a driver today.
      • Cross: EUR/GBP ranges. JPY shorts are exposed.
      • Levels: Monitor key levels from overnight session.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Hopes for de-escalation are driving.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY, fading risk-off, positive momentum.
      • Levels: Support at 4650, resistance at 4700.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Follows Gold’s trend, industrial demand boost.
      • Levels: Support at 7600, resistance at 7800.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Deal chatter is main driver.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY isn’t sufficient to lift with Iran headlines.
      • Levels: Support at 90, resistance at 100.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Aided by optimism.
      • Levels: Support at 610, resistance at 620.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Boosted sentiment supports outlook.
      • Cross: VIX regime shift, global risk-on fueling.
      • Levels: Futures 7300, cash support at 7250, resistance at 7350.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap resilience and lower rates helpful.
      • Cross: Rate sensitivity supporting.
      • Levels: Monitor intraday resistance and support levels.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Broader market lift aids cyclicals.
      • Cross: Lower yields benefit outlook.
      • Levels: Monitor intraday resistance and support levels.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Riding the positive global wave, GBP drag offset.
      • Levels: Monitor intraday resistance and support levels.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (DE): Lower Bund yields, EU tone aiding DAX.
      • Cross: Taking cues from US tech.
      • Levels: Monitor intraday resistance and support levels.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness and earnings are important.
      • Cross: Risk tone and US tech performance play a key role.
      • Levels: Monitor intraday resistance and support levels.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flow stable, and funding rate stable.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 81000, resistance at 83000.

    Positioning watch: JPY is the most crowded short (0th percentile) and Aussie is most crowded long (96th percentile), per CFTC. A dovish surprise from the Fed or a hawkish BoJ shift could trigger a significant squeeze in JPY.

    The pain trade: A surprisingly strong ADP print would reignite inflation concerns and send yields higher, triggering a sharp reversal of today’s risk-on move and hurting gold longs.

  • Gold Surges on Mideast Ceasefire Hopes – Wednesday, 6 May

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is trading at 4689.9, up 126.6 or 2.77% on the day, fueled by hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East. Overnight, bullion traded in a wide range between 4556.1 and 4733.9. This rally marks a significant recovery from recent selling pressure, pushing it well above yesterday’s close.

    What’s driving it: A fragile ceasefire in the Gulf is the primary driver, diminishing fears of further energy-price inflation that had reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. The prospect of a US-Iran deal, potentially involving sanctions relief and nuclear negotiations, adds to the downward pressure on oil and therefore inflation expectations. This is amplified by a weaker dollar, as the DXY slides to 97.79. Rising real yields had presented a headwind for gold, but the current risk-on environment is overpowering that influence.

    • US 10Y real yields rose to 1.95% as of May 4th. This is a headwind, but being outweighed by the risk off move for now.
    • Reuters reported that gold climbed over 3% as Middle East peace hopes drag down dollar, oil.
    • Net non-commercial gold positioning remains modestly long at +159,571 contracts.

    NY session focus: Today’s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data at 08:15 ET will be closely watched for its impact on US rate expectations, and will affect the current risk-on sentiment if the number is far from the 118K consensus. Key levels to watch are 4700 as an immediate resistance and 4600 as support. The current trade is to ride the bullish momentum, but the risk is a hawkish surprise from the ADP data. The pain trade would be a sudden collapse of ceasefire hopes, reigniting inflation fears and sending gold tumbling.

  • Bitcoin Reclaims $82,000 as Risk Appetite Returns – Wednesday, 6 May

    Where we are: Bitcoin is trading at 82359, up 1.13% on the day, challenging the intraday high of 82840. The overnight range has been relatively contained, with support holding around 80799. BTC is building on gains seen in the Asian and European sessions and is pushing towards levels not seen since January, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment.

    What’s driving it: Bitcoin is finding support from relatively neutral funding rates and positive risk sentiment. Binance BTCUSDT perp funding is balanced, not indicating excessive speculative pressure. Broader risk appetite, evidenced by rallies across global equities and falling US Treasury yields, is spilling over into the crypto space, supporting the rally in BTC. ETF and on-chain data remains outstanding, preventing a full read on the strength of the rally.

    • Net non-commercial positioning in Bitcoin futures is at the 96th percentile, a crowded long implying squeeze risk.
    • US 10-year yields have fallen -4.9bp to 4.353%, easing some of the pressure on risk assets.
    • The DXY is down -0.41% to 97.79, providing a tailwind for Bitcoin.

    NY session focus: Today’s session hinges on the 08:15 ET ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which could trigger a rates repricing and impact risk sentiment. A strong print could reverse the recent dip in yields and weigh on Bitcoin. Watch for a break above 82840 to signal further upside towards the January highs. Failure to hold 82000 could see a pullback to the 80799 level. The working trade is fading short-term dips in line with risk appetite. The at-risk trade is adding to over-extended longs at these levels given positioning. The pain trade is a surprise hawkish signal from the Fed minutes triggering a substantial unwind of the crowded long positioning.

  • WTI Crude Plummets on US-Iran Deal Speculation – Wednesday, 6 May

    Snapshot: WTI Crude is down sharply at 95.21, a -7.34 decline, driven by speculation of a US-Iran deal that could ease tensions and boost supply. The potential agreement is already weighing on prices, with WTI breaching the $100 level.

    • Watch for a test of the 88.71 intraday low; break there confirms downside momentum.
    • The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 08:15 ET could offer a short-term distraction, but geopolitical headlines will likely remain dominant.

    Bias into NY: Bearish, with further downside risk to WTI towards the 88.00 level, as the market prices in a potential easing of supply constraints linked to the US-Iran situation. The weaker DXY at 97.79 is offering little support.

  • Brent Plunges as Iran Deal Hopes Emerge – Wednesday, 6 May

    Snapshot: Brent crude is trading at 103.09, down 4.31% on the session, as reports surface of a potential US-Iran deal to ease tensions. These reports have overshadowed any underlying supply concerns. Watch the 08:15 ET ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for potential directional cues.

    • Key support lies at the overnight low of 96.77.
    • Risk remains that the market has further to price on this de-escalation, with geopolitical risk premia still embedded.

    Bias into NY: Bearish. The market is likely to test lower as traders price in the reduced geopolitical risk, potentially pushing Brent towards the 95.00 handle. DXY weakness is offering only limited offset.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Tuesday, 5 May

    Regime: Risk-on, as S&P 500 futures test overnight highs and the VIX remains subdued below 17 despite geopolitical headlines and upcoming data.

    Today’s market themes:

    • RBA Rate Hike: Market anticipating an aggressive RBA hike, driving AUD strength and potential impact across Asia-Pac FX.
    • ISM Services & JOLTS: US economic data to set the tone for the NY session and further solidify Fed policy expectations.
    • Middle East Tensions: Geopolitical risks simmer, with eyes on oil supply disruptions and associated impact on risk sentiment.

    The setup: Focus remains on the RBA rate decision, with expectations leaning towards a 25bp hike to 4.35%. A larger hike or hawkish statement could further boost AUD, while a dovish surprise could lead to a sharp reversal. S&P 500 futures at 7261.75 need to hold to confirm risk-on, failure here triggers sell pressure. Watch US 10Y near 4.42% as a key sentiment indicator.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 14:30 AEST AUD: Cash Rate (forecast 4.35%, prior 4.10%)
    • 10:00 ET USD: ISM Services PMI (forecast 53.7, prior 54.0)
    • 10:45 NZT NZD: Employment Change q/q (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.5%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral to slightly bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Fed’s data dependence / US data strength / US yields.
      • Cross: Global growth concerns / risk aversion / EUR weakness.
      • Levels: Support 97.80, Resistance 98.50.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Neutral to bearish.
      • Domestic (EU): ECB policy divergence / moderate Eurozone HICP/ peripheral spreads
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-DE 10Y widening / risk-off flows.
      • Levels: Support 1.1670, Resistance 1.1700.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): BoE’s caution / UK CPI near target / Gilt yields steady.
      • Cross: DXY influence / US-UK 10Y / risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support 1.3500, Resistance 1.3575.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ ultra-dovish stance / JGB yields capped / verbal intervention risk.
      • Cross: US 10Y strength / DXY strength / risk-on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 157.00, Resistance 158.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (CA): BoC holding steady / CPI near target / WTI price action.
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-CA 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.3600, Resistance 1.3650.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bullish (pre-RBA), then volatile.
      • Domestic (AU): RBA decision / Inflation dynamics / Australia-China relations.
      • Cross: DXY impact / US-AU 10Y / risk.
      • Levels: Support 0.7150, Resistance 0.7200.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Neutral to bearish.
      • Domestic (NZ): Employment data / RBNZ caution / New Zealand-China trade.
      • Cross: DXY / US-NZ 10Y / risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 0.5850, Resistance 0.5900.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB policy / Swiss inflation / economic outlook.
      • Cross: DXY direction / safe-haven flows / Europe.
      • Levels: Support 0.7800, Resistance 0.7850.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): Depends on relative CB stance + yields.
      • Domestic: Relative monetary policies and yield differentials are dominant.
      • Cross: DXY / risk sentiment / potential cross-currency feedback loops.
      • Levels: Monitor key technical levels for each cross.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields falling / breakeven inflation firming / CB demand.
      • Cross: DXY weakness / risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 4520, Resistance 4585.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Strong industrial demand / inflation hedge narrative.
      • Cross: DXY weakness / risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support 7280, Resistance 7450.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): EIA stock data / OPEC supply policy / refining activity.
      • Cross: DXY direction / geopolitical risk premium.
      • Levels: WTI support 102.50, resistance 105.50.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China stimulus / LME inventory depletion / supply disruption.
      • Cross: Global growth proxy / DXY.
      • Levels: Support 585, Resistance 600.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Neutral to bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Earnings season / Fed policy / US economic data.
      • Cross: VIX regime / global macro backdrop / US 10Y.
      • Levels: Futures support 7220, resistance 7270; cash S&P support 7170 and 7240.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap tech performance / AI enthusiasm / rising rates-priced-in.
      • Cross: Rate sensitivity / VIX level.
      • Levels: Support at 27730, Resistance at 28000.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): industrial sector earnings / cyclical names / banks.
      • Cross: Bond-yield impact / recession fears.
      • Levels: Support 49050, Resistance 49300.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling strength / Commodity prices (energy).
      • Cross: Global Risk Appetite.
      • Levels: Support 22420, Resistance 22600.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (DE): Eurozone recovery / German data / Bund yields.
      • Cross: US Tech Momentum / DXY / Risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support 23990, Resistance 24400.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness benefit / earnings performance.
      • Cross: US tech sentiment / risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support 59250, Resistance 59700.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral to bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flows / on-chain activity / regulations.
      • Cross: DXY influence / risk sentiment / Nasdaq correlation.
      • Levels: Support 79750, Resistance 81300.

    Positioning watch: The Yen and Nasdaq remain crowded shorts (squeeze on positive surprise), while AUD, Copper, and Bitcoin are crowded longs (squeeze on disappointment). CFTC data shows extreme positioning, making these assets vulnerable to outsized moves on data releases.

    The pain trade: A hawkish surprise from the RBA, combined with a soft US ISM, would trigger a sharp AUD rally while simultaneously pressuring USD shorts, creating a significant “double squeeze” scenario.

  • Gold Gains Traction as Real Yields Slide – Tuesday, 5 May

    Where we are: Gold is currently trading at 4573.8, up 0.90% on the session, finding support after yesterday’s dip. The intraday range has been relatively wide, from 4522.9 to 4585.0, suggesting continued volatility. This price action puts it well above yesterday’s close and near the high of the session.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver behind gold’s upward momentum is the continued decline in US real yields. The 10-year TIPS yield has fallen to 1.91%, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a store of value. This move has been amplified by relatively rangebound DXY. The high-impact ISM Services PMI (10:00 ET) data release today will likely dictate the short-term trajectory, as better-than-expected figures could easily revive hawkish expectations and put pressure on bullion; the converse is also true. The market is still pricing considerable uncertainty around the Fed’s forward path.

    • US 10Y Real Yield dropped to 1.91%, strengthening the non-yielding appeal of Gold.
    • 10Y Breakeven Inflation at 2.5%, suggesting some confidence in inflation expectations and supporting gold’s safe-haven status.
    • Net non-commercial positioning in Gold is modestly long at the 4th percentile, meaning there isn’t a considerable amount of speculative froth to be unwound.

    NY session focus: Traders will be closely watching the 10:00 ET releases of the ISM Services PMI and JOLTS Job Openings for directional cues, with New Home Sales data providing additional color. A break above 4585.0 could open the door to further gains, while a move below 4522.9 could signal a retest of lower levels. The working trade remains buying dips on real-yield weakness. A hawkish surprise in today’s data could quickly put this trade at risk. The pain trade for gold is a strong dollar on the back of resurgent US economic data.