Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4701.3, down 3.9 points (-0.08%) on the session. The intraday range has been relatively contained, between 4655.6 and 4714.2. This price action sees it sitting below Friday’s New York close after a mild rally last week.
What’s driving it: Gold is under pressure from rising US real yields, with the 10-year TIPS yield climbing to 1.96% (+2.0bp d/d, as of 2026-05-07). The move in real rates is overshadowing the steady 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which remains at 2.45%. The overall tone is not being helped by Modi’s comments asking Indians to stop buying gold, which is rippling through jewellery stocks.
- 10Y Real Yield (TIPS): 1.96% (+2.0bp d/d) — a headwind for Gold.
- Reuters is reporting that Gold is falling on oil-driven inflation fears as Trump rejects Iran peace proposal.
- CFTC data shows net non-commercial positions at +163,303 contracts, a modestly long stance but only at the 21st percentile of the 52-week range, suggesting limited squeeze potential at these levels.
NY session focus: With no major US data releases scheduled for 08:30 ET, focus will likely remain on the interplay between yields and risk sentiment. Key level to watch is the 4650.0 level; a break below could open the door to further downside. The trade that’s working is shorting gold on rallies, while the trade at risk is chasing momentum to the downside if yields consolidate. The pain trade for gold would be a sudden dovish pivot from the Fed, sending real yields lower.