Snapshot: Brent is down 2.06% to $100.43, driven lower by President Trump’s comments reinforcing hopes for a ceasefire with Iran. This comes despite earlier reports of fresh clashes in the Strait of Hormuz and continues to pressure North Sea crude.
- Watch for volatility around the 08:30 ET US jobs data (Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate), which could impact risk sentiment and the dollar.
- Geopolitical risk remains elevated; any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz could quickly reverse the current downside.
Bias into NY: Expect continued downside pressure on Brent Crude below $100 if the US data prints soft and reinforces the ceasefire narrative. A break above $102.93 would negate this view.