Where we are: Bitcoin is trading at 82359, up 1.13% on the day, challenging the intraday high of 82840. The overnight range has been relatively contained, with support holding around 80799. BTC is building on gains seen in the Asian and European sessions and is pushing towards levels not seen since January, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment.
What’s driving it: Bitcoin is finding support from relatively neutral funding rates and positive risk sentiment. Binance BTCUSDT perp funding is balanced, not indicating excessive speculative pressure. Broader risk appetite, evidenced by rallies across global equities and falling US Treasury yields, is spilling over into the crypto space, supporting the rally in BTC. ETF and on-chain data remains outstanding, preventing a full read on the strength of the rally.
- Net non-commercial positioning in Bitcoin futures is at the 96th percentile, a crowded long implying squeeze risk.
- US 10-year yields have fallen -4.9bp to 4.353%, easing some of the pressure on risk assets.
- The DXY is down -0.41% to 97.79, providing a tailwind for Bitcoin.
NY session focus: Today’s session hinges on the 08:15 ET ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which could trigger a rates repricing and impact risk sentiment. A strong print could reverse the recent dip in yields and weigh on Bitcoin. Watch for a break above 82840 to signal further upside towards the January highs. Failure to hold 82000 could see a pullback to the 80799 level. The working trade is fading short-term dips in line with risk appetite. The at-risk trade is adding to over-extended longs at these levels given positioning. The pain trade is a surprise hawkish signal from the Fed minutes triggering a substantial unwind of the crowded long positioning.