Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading at $75,672, down $137 or 0.18% on the day. The intraday range has been contained between $75,200 and $76,061. This level is slightly below yesterday’s New York close, with Bitcoin struggling to maintain upward momentum amidst broader market jitters.
What’s driving it: Bitcoin’s sideways action appears to be driven by balanced funding rates on Binance perps, currently at 4.95% annualized, suggesting neither excessive bullishness nor bearishness. The absence of fresh ETF flow data and on-chain metrics leaves price action exposed to external factors. DXY strength, currently at 98.95, is contributing to downward pressure, while the rise in US 2-year yields to 4.041% dampens risk appetite.
- Binance BTCUSDT perp funding holding balanced around 4.95%.
- US 2Y yield ticking up to 4.041%
- Bitcoin’s net non-commercial positioning remains at the 90th percentile, indicating crowded longs and squeeze risk if the price moves lower.
NY session focus: Keep a close eye on risk sentiment as US equity futures are indicating a positive open, with S&P 500 futures up 0.30%. Traders will be watching for any surprises in the ongoing Iran talks, with Trump’s cabinet meeting moved to the White House. Key levels to watch are $76,000 as initial resistance and $75,000 as immediate support. The working trade has been fading intraday rallies. The at-risk trade is adding to longs. The pain trade here is a surprise risk-on move triggered by a breakthrough in the Iran negotiations, combined with a large spot ETF inflow which could trigger a short squeeze and push Bitcoin through $76,500.