Category: Global

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Tuesday, 2 June

    Regime: Mixed: VIX steady at 15.32 but yields are pulling back modestly, capping the DXY at 99.05 amid light risk-off sentiment.

    Today’s market themes:

    • ECB watch: Eurozone inflation data reinforces the case for a June rate hike, setting up a potential hawkish surprise.
    • Oil supply: Geopolitical tensions compete with global demand concerns and US-Iran talks, causing volatility.
    • Positioning squeeze: Crowded short JPY and crowded long BTC may be vulnerable given current data.

    The setup: Eurozone CPI data is key today. The market is pricing in a high probability of an ECB rate cut in June, so an upside surprise could trigger a significant EUR rally against both the USD and GBP. Key risk is a weaker-than-expected print, confirming the dovish expectations and leading to EUR weakness. Watch EUR/USD at 1.1650 and US-DE 10Y spread for confirmation.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 11:00 CET EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y (forecast 2.4%, prior 2.2%)
    • 10:00 ET USD JOLTS Job Openings (forecast 6.87M, prior 6.87M)
    • 11:30 AEST AUD GDP q/q (forecast 0.5%, prior 0.8%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (US): Fed data watch / yield levels
      • Cross: Euro strength / risk sentiment
      • Levels: Support 98.80 / Resistance 99.20
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (EU): Inflation data key for ECB path
      • Cross: DXY pullback / US-DE 10Y widening
      • Levels: Support 1.1620 / Resistance 1.1680
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): BoE Bailey speech / Gilt direction
      • Cross: DXY / US-UK 10Y stable
      • Levels: Support 1.3440 / Resistance 1.3500
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (JP): Intervention risk / yield curve control
      • Cross: US 10Y stable / risk-off tone
      • Levels: Support 159.50 / Resistance 160.00
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (CA): WTI under pressure / BoC stance
      • Cross: DXY / US-CA 10Y stable
      • Levels: Support 1.3820 / Resistance 1.3860
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (AU): GDP and commodity prices in focus
      • Cross: DXY / US-AU 10Y spread
      • Levels: Support 0.7150 / Resistance 0.7200
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ easing bias / dairy prices
      • Cross: DXY / risk sentiment
      • Levels: Support 0.5900 / Resistance 0.5950
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (CH): SNB stance / Swiss data
      • Cross: DXY / risk-off flows
      • Levels: Support 0.7840 / Resistance 0.7880
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP Bullish, EUR/JPY Bullish, GBP/JPY Neutral
      • Domestic: ECB vs BoE/BoJ differentials
      • Cross: DXY / risk sentiment
      • Levels: Watch relative yield spreads
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields down / CB demand
      • Cross: DXY / risk aversion
      • Levels: Support 4500 / Resistance 4550
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): industrial demand / gold link
      • Cross: DXY / risk sentiment
      • Levels: Support 7500 / Resistance 7700
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): EIA data / OPEC / US-Iran talks
      • Cross: DXY / risk sentiment
      • Levels: Support 90.00 / Resistance 92.00
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China demand outlook
      • Cross: DXY / global growth outlook
      • Levels: Support 660 / Resistance 670
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (US): earnings / Fed watch / yields
      • Cross: VIX regime / global risk
      • Levels: Futures support 7580 / cash resistance 7620
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (US): earnings / real yields
      • Cross: Rate sensitivity / VIX
      • Levels: Support 30300 / Resistance 30600
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (US): earnings / cyclical tone
      • Cross: Bond-yield reaction
      • Levels: Support 50700 / Resistance 51000
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling direction / Gilt yields
      • Cross: Global risk / US tone
      • Levels: Support 23200 / Resistance 23400
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields / data watch
      • Cross: US tech / DXY
      • Levels: Support 25100 / Resistance 25300
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): JPY level / JGB
      • Cross: US tech / risk sentiment
      • Levels: Support 65500 / Resistance 66700
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): funding rates / ETF flows
      • Cross: DXY / risk sentiment / Nasdaq correlation
      • Levels: Support 68000 / Resistance 70000

    Positioning watch: JPY remains heavily shorted (0th percentile), increasing squeeze risk if the BoJ signals policy normalization. BTC is also a crowded long (94th percentile), leaving it vulnerable to profit-taking on any risk-off move.

    The pain trade: A surprise hawkish signal from the ECB, combined with soft US data, would spark a EUR rally and punish USD longs, while forcing JPY shorts to cover aggressively.

  • Gold Bullion Gains Ground on Easing Rate Hike Fears – Tuesday, 2 June

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4544.4, up 0.68% on the day, carving out a range of 4492.6 to 4571.2 so far. This move sees XAU reclaim lost ground from yesterday, pushing back towards the upper end of its recent trading band. Bullion is attracting a bid after a moderate risk-off tone to the European session, seeing DAX and CAC both trade slightly lower as well as weakness in the S&P futures.

    What’s driving it: A pullback in oil prices is helping to temper inflation concerns, easing some of the pressure for further Fed rate hikes. The weaker oil market is being compounded by a softer DXY, currently at 99.05, down -0.08% on the day. The moves in XAU are also being driven by central banks as it was flagged earlier that RBI may have sold gold to save FX reserves as well as gold overtaking U.S. treasuries as number-one reserve asset.

    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial positions at +154,260 contracts, modestly long and at the 0th percentile (52w) — suggesting room for a squeeze higher if the narrative turns decidedly bullish.
    • US 10Y yields are down -0.36% to 4.432% as the market looks to price in lower inflationary pressure in the short term.
    • FirstFT reports that gold overtakes US treasuries as the world’s leading reserve asset.

    NY session focus: The key event for the session will be the JOLTS job openings data at 10:00 ET; expect volatility around that print. A weaker-than-expected number could further weigh on the dollar and boost gold, targeting a break above the intraday high of 4571.2. Conversely, a strong print could reignite rate-hike fears, potentially driving gold back down towards the 4490 level. A break of the prior resistance may open the door towards 4600. The pain trade for gold would be a strong risk-on move alongside hawkish comments from a Fed official, triggering a sharp correction.

  • Bitcoin Under Pressure as ETF Flows Remain Elusive – Tuesday, 2 June

    Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading at 69007, down 2.77% or roughly $1962 on the day. The overnight range has been wide, between 68982 and 71519, suggesting some choppy trading. This current level is testing the lower end of that range and is a significant pullback from yesterday’s close.

    What’s driving it: The immediate pressure appears to be stemming from uncertainty surrounding spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which have yet to be wired and are creating some unease, with traders taking profits ahead of the US open. Balanced Binance BTCUSDT perp funding at 6.44% annualised suggests no strong directional conviction in the perp market, although it does indicate a bias for longs. The JOLTS job openings data at 10:00 ET will be closely watched, potentially influencing risk sentiment and therefore BTC; weaker data could put downward pressure on the DXY and lift BTC, although this may be a secondary effect to any moves influenced by spot flows.

    • Spot BTC ETF net flow remains an unknown factor and a key catalyst for a potential reversal.
    • Perp funding is balanced, creating conditions for a short squeeze if spot bid returns.
    • Speculator positioning is crowded long, sitting at the 94th percentile, increasing the risk of a deeper correction if sentiment sours.

    NY session focus: Traders should be focused on the 10:00 ET JOLTS print which could provide a steer for risk sentiment. Key levels to watch are 68500 as immediate support and 70000 as resistance. The trade that’s at risk is holding large long positions, particularly given the crowded positioning. If ETF flows disappoint again, we could see a flush down towards 67000. The pain trade is a strong upside surprise in ETF inflows, triggering a short squeeze that sends Bitcoin back above 71000.

  • Oil Under Pressure Despite Geopolitical Risk – Tuesday, 2 June

    Snapshot: WTI Crude is trading at $91.10, down 1.51% on the session, driven by easing of immediate Hormuz Strait concerns following President Trump’s comments. Today’s catalyst is the 10:00 ET JOLTS Job Openings figure, potentially influencing risk sentiment.

    • Watch for a break below $90.17 (day low) to confirm further downside.
    • Geopolitical tensions regarding US-Iran talks and developments in Lebanon remain a key risk factor, capable of triggering a sharp reversal.

    Bias into NY: Expect continued pressure on WTI, targeting $90.00, barring any surprise escalation in Middle East tensions; DXY strength is adding to the bearish tone.

  • Brent Crude Under Pressure as Trump Weighs on Sentiment – Tuesday, 2 June

    Snapshot: Brent is currently trading at $94.01, down 0.81% on the day, pulled down by conflicting signals regarding US-Iran negotiations. Today’s medium-impact JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 ET could offer some intraday direction.

    • Watch for a break below $92.86 (day low) which could open the door to further downside.
    • Risk: Further conflicting headlines on Iran peace talks could amplify volatility.

    Bias into NY: Mildly bearish. Despite ongoing concerns about Strait of Hormuz disruptions, Trump’s attempt to reassure markets about a potential deal is weighing on prices. A weaker dollar (DXY at 99.05) is offering limited support.

  • BTC Under Pressure as USD Bids Before Data – Monday, 1 June

    Where we are: Bitcoin currently trades at 72058, down 2.32% on the day, carving out a range of 71843-74094. The overnight dip accelerated in early European trade, piercing initial support near 72500. This puts BTC below Friday’s New York close and closer to the bottom of the established range. Ethereum is relatively outperforming, down 1.13% to 1986, trading a 1967-2020 range.

    What’s driving it: Bitcoin is reacting negatively to a slight bid in the dollar and a softening risk tone ahead of key US data. While Binance BTCUSDT perp funding is balanced at 0.0100% per 8h, the absence of fresh spot ETF inflow data and on-chain activity metrics leaves BTC vulnerable to external shocks. This backdrop makes BTC particularly sensitive to the upcoming ISM prints and any hawkish signals from FOMC Member Powell later today.

    • USD: The DXY’s move through 99.00 suggests some haven demand ahead of the data.
    • Yields: A slight flattening of the curve (10Y -2.0bp, 2Y -1.2bp) hints at growth concerns.
    • Positioning: The elevated net long positioning (+2,282 contracts, 94th %ile) increases the risk of a squeeze on any further downside surprises.

    NY session focus: The primary focus for the New York session is the 10:00 ET ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid data. A stronger-than-expected print could further bolster the dollar and pressure Bitcoin, while a weaker print might offer a temporary reprieve. Traders will also be watching for clues from FOMC Member Powell’s speech at 20:30 ET. Key levels to watch are 71800 for support and 73000 for resistance. The short BTC / long ETH trade is currently working, but vulnerable to a broad risk rally. The pain trade is a surprisingly dovish Powell coupled with strong ETF inflows, sending BTC back above 74000 and squeezing over-levered shorts.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Monday, 1 June

    Regime: Risk-on, supported by easing global inflation expectations as indicated by lower US 10Y yields and firm equities futures.

    Today’s market themes:

    • ISM Day: US ISM Manufacturing PMI key for near-term Fed rate path signals.
    • USD strength: DXY gains traction amid mixed global growth outlook, impacting emerging market stocks.
    • Oil price volatility: Geopolitical tensions and supply concerns continue to underpin oil prices.

    The setup: ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 ET will be crucial in determining the near-term Fed outlook. A print above 53.3 could fuel further DXY gains and pressure risk assets, while a miss could see yields dip and equity futures rally. Watch US 10Y around 4.45%.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 10:00 ET USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast 53.3, prior 52.7)
    • 10:00 ET USD: ISM Manufacturing Prices (forecast 85.3, prior 84.6)
    • 20:30 ET USD: FOMC Member Powell Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (US): ISM data crucial; Fed rhetoric leaning hawkish.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows supportive; EUR/GBP weakness adds to momentum.
      • Levels: Resistance 99.20, Support 98.80.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Lower.
      • Domestic (EU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength weighs; US-DE 10Y widening pressures.
      • Levels: Resistance 1.1670, Support 1.1630.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral to slightly lower.
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength a headwind; US-UK 10Y supportive.
      • Levels: Resistance 1.3480, Support 1.3440.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ still slow to tighten; intervention risks persist.
      • Cross: US 10Y driving force; DXY strength adds to upward pressure.
      • Levels: Resistance 159.75, Support 159.20.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (CA): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength dominating; US-CA 10Y favors USD upside.
      • Levels: Resistance 1.3850, Support 1.3790.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Lower.
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength; China growth concerns remain.
      • Levels: Resistance 0.7190, Support 0.7150.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Lower.
      • Domestic (NZ): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength; risk-off sentiment hurting commodity currencies.
      • Levels: Resistance 0.5990, Support 0.5940.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength; safe-haven demand muted.
      • Levels: Resistance 0.7870, Support 0.7820.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): Mixed, relative CB stance drives direction.
      • Domestic: ECB vs BoE/BoJ expectations key for cross-pair movements.
      • Cross: Overall DXY strength; risk impacting JPY leg most.
      • Levels: Monitor key levels on a case-by-case basis.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Lower.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields rising limits upside.
      • Cross: DXY strength a major headwind.
      • Levels: Resistance 4580, Support 4520.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Mixed.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand supportive, but volatile.
      • Cross: DXY strength weighs; risk appetite fluctuates.
      • Levels: Resistance 7660, Support 7420.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Geopolitical tensions support; supply concerns.
      • Cross: DXY strength can limit some upside.
      • Levels: WTI Resistance 91.50, Support 88.50.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China demand concerns still linger despite recent gains.
      • Cross: Dollar strength may temper upside for now.
      • Levels: Resistance 660, Support 640.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Sideways to slightly higher.
      • Domestic (US): Data-dependent Fed outlook influences direction.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment driving force; watch VIX reaction.
      • Levels: Futures resistance 7630, cash support 7570.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Sideways.
      • Domestic (US): Earnings season winding down, focus on macro.
      • Cross: Higher rates sensitivity; VIX affecting valuations.
      • Levels: Resistance 30600, Support 30350.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Sideways to slightly higher.
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical sectors showing resilience.
      • Cross: Bond yield direction drives sentiment.
      • Levels: Resistance 51400, Support 50700.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Lower.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling weakness supportive, but overall global risk weighs.
      • Cross: Heavily affected by general mood across US/global markets.
      • Levels: Resistance 23450, Support 23300.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Sideways.
      • Domestic (DE): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US tech sector; DXY driving some investor sentiment.
      • Levels: Resistance 25350, Support 25100.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Sideways to slightly higher.
      • Domestic (JP): Consolidation around record highs.
      • Cross: US tech; overall risk appetite important for sentiment.
      • Levels: Resistance 67300, Support 66200.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Sideways to slightly lower.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flows influence price.
      • Cross: Heavily linked to DXY; sensitive to tech direction.
      • Levels: Resistance 74100, Support 71800.

    Positioning watch: USD is crowded long at 81st percentile, and JPY remains crowded short (0th percentile) presenting squeeze risks on any dovish pivot from the Fed or a BoJ hawkish surprise. Copper and BTC are crowded long as well, both at 94th, suggesting downside risks on weaker data.

    The pain trade: A weaker-than-expected ISM, combined with Powell hinting at openness to rate cuts, would trigger a sharp rally in bonds and equities, squeezing USD longs and JPY shorts simultaneously.

  • Gold Under Pressure as Dollar Strength Persists – Monday, 1 June

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4531.9, down 0.49% on the day and near the bottom of its intraday range of 4519.3-4576.8. This price action represents a continuation of the downward pressure seen in late trading last week. The metal remains below the psychological 4550 level and well off Friday’s highs.

    What’s driving it: Gold is under pressure as renewed Middle East tensions stoke inflation fears, prompting some profit-taking after recent gains. The move is being amplified by the stronger dollar; the DXY index is currently at 99.06, up 0.13% on the session, weighing on bullion prices as investors reduce holdings. With no specific drivers domestically, gold is tracking the general risk-off sentiment reflected in the mild sell-off of US treasuries.

    • The DXY is at session highs, fuelled by the risk-off tone dominating early trade.
    • Net non-commercial positions remain modestly long at 154,260 contracts, leaving room for further downside if the dollar strengthens.
    • Goldman Sachs noted that hedge funds are buying stocks at the fastest pace in 6 months which suggests a change in capital allocation, which may be causing a headwind for gold prices.

    NY session focus: All eyes are on the 10:00 ET release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices data. A higher-than-expected print on prices could further bolster the dollar and pressure gold lower. Later in the day, at 20:30 ET, FOMC Member Powell speaks; traders will be listening closely for any further hints on the path of interest rates. Key levels to watch on the downside are 4515 and then 4500. The pain trade is a surprise dovish shift from Powell or a weaker-than-expected ISM print, which could trigger a sharp rally towards 4575.

  • Bitcoin Under Pressure as ETF Flows Await Confirmation – Monday, 1 June

    Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading at 71930, down 2.50% on the day and testing the lower end of its intraday range of 71843-74094. This move places it well below the previous NY close. Ethereum is also feeling the pressure, down 1.39% to 1981, having traded in a range of 1967-2020 today.

    What’s driving it: The initial dip appears to be driven by a strategy sell-off of 2.5M Bitcoin, the first in over three years, as reported earlier today. Confirmation on spot BTC ETF net flows is still pending, and this uncertainty is likely weighing on sentiment. The balanced Binance BTCUSDT perp funding rate of 0.0100% per 8h (annualised ≈ 10.95%) suggests limited immediate directional pressure, but could be vulnerable if the spot ETF number disappoints. A firmer DXY at 99.06 (+0.13%) and slightly softer US yields (10Y at 4.452%, down 1.8bp) are contributing to the risk-off mood.

    • Seeking Alpha reported a significant Bitcoin sell-off by a previously steadfast holder, potentially triggering stop-losses and adding downward momentum.
    • CFTC data shows non-commercial net longs at the 94th percentile, increasing by 170 contracts last week, raising the risk of a squeeze if positive catalysts fail to materialise.
    • The intraday break below 72000 has triggered further selling, with the next major support level likely in the 70,000 zone.

    NY session focus: All eyes will be on the 10:00 ET ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices data releases, which could significantly influence risk appetite. Later in the day, FOMC Member Powell speaks at 20:30 ET; any hawkish commentary will likely amplify the existing downside pressure. Key levels to watch are 71000 as initial support and 73000 as resistance. The working trade is currently short BTC on rallies, while the at-risk trade is dip-buying until ETF flows confirm. The pain trade here is a surprise upside break through 74000, squeezing out overextended shorts.

  • Oil Rallies on Iran Deal Uncertainty – Monday, 1 June

    Snapshot: WTI crude is trading at $89.79, up 0.94%, supported by ongoing uncertainty regarding a potential US-Iran agreement. Focus shifts to the 10:00 ET ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid data for further direction.

    • A break above the day’s high of $91.25 could trigger further upside.
    • Risk of a pullback if ISM data misses expectations, exacerbating risk-off sentiment.

    Bias into NY: We favor further upside in WTI towards $92.50, contingent on a supportive ISM print, as geopolitical risks continue to underpin prices. However, a stronger dollar (DXY at 99.06) could temper gains.

  • Brent Crude Climbs on Geopolitical Risk – Monday, 1 June

    Snapshot: Brent is currently trading at $93.23, up 0.76% on the session, driven by escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Fresh waves of attacks are clouding hopes for a peace deal. Traders will be watching the 10:00 ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for further direction.

    • Immediate resistance around intraday high of $94.56.
    • Risk: Any de-escalation in Middle East tensions would likely trigger a sharp correction.

    Bias into NY: Bullish, with a target of $95.00, given the geopolitical premium and continued uncertainty surrounding supply disruptions. Firmer DXY is a headwind, but secondary to the Iran risk bid.

  • Oil Bulls Return, Testing $90 Ceiling – Monday, 1 June

    Snapshot: WTI Crude is up 0.94% at $89.79, rebounding from six-week lows, driven by persistent uncertainty around the US-Iran agreement and ongoing attacks on Russian refineries. The ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 ET will be the key catalyst for further direction.

    • WTI breaking above $90 will signal further upside potential, targeting intraday highs of $91.25, but a failure to hold those gains suggests consolidation before the US open.
    • Watch for headlines on the Iran deal; any concrete progress towards a ceasefire could trigger a sharp sell-off, reversing the recent gains.

    Bias into NY: Bullish, given the supply concerns from both Iranian tensions and Ukraine’s actions against Russian refineries, though a stronger dollar (DXY at 99.01) and lower US yields (10Y at 4.450%) are moderating factors. A break above $91.25 would open the door to further gains.

  • Brent Crude Climbs on US-Iran Uncertainty – Monday, 1 June

    Snapshot: Brent is trading at $93.13, up 0.65% on the session, driven by renewed uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran deal and escalating geopolitical tensions. All eyes are on the 10:00 ET ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid data release, which could amplify any existing moves.

    • A break above the day’s high of $94.56 could open the door for further gains.
    • Geopolitical risks remain elevated and could trigger sudden price swings.

    Bias into NY: We see a bullish bias into the NY session, targeting a test of $95.00 if the ISM data prints strong, supported by a slightly weaker 10-year yield at 4.450%.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Friday, 29 May

    Regime: Mixed, with VIX at 16.29 reflecting contained risk, but rising US 10Y yield at 4.439% suggesting real-rate concerns.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Dominant: Real-rate repricing as inflation proves stickier than expected, driving USD strength and pressuring risk assets.
    • Secondary: Geopolitical tensions (Iran) and its impact on oil supply.

    The setup: Markets are pricing in a more hawkish Fed, underpinned by resilient economic data and persistent inflation. Short equities, targeting a dip in S&P 500 to 7500, with a stop loss at 7600. Risk is a dovish surprise from BoE Gov Bailey’s speech or weaker-than-expected Canadian GDP.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:29 CET EUR: German Prelim CPI m/m (forecast 0.1%, prior 0.6%)
    • 09:20 London GBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
    • 08:30 ET CAD: GDP m/m (forecast 0.1%, prior 0.2%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Hawkish Fed rhetoric, resilient data, rising yields.
      • Cross: Global risk aversion, EUR/USD weakness.
      • Levels: Support 98.90, Resistance 99.20.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (EU): ECB’s mild easing bias, weaker growth data.
      • Cross: DXY strength, widening US-DE 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.1620, Resistance 1.1660.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): BoE dovish tilt, potential service CPI weakness.
      • Cross: DXY strength, negative US-UK 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.3400, Resistance 1.3460.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ slow normalization, intervention unlikely near-term.
      • Cross: Rising US 10Y, DXY strength, risk-on mood.
      • Levels: Support 159.00, Resistance 159.50.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CA): Weaker GDP, sensitivity to oil price moves.
      • Cross: DXY strength, widening US-CA 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.3780, Resistance 1.3840.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength, China growth uncertainty.
      • Levels: Support 0.7150, Resistance 0.7180.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ rate hike expectations, dairy price watch.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 0.5930, Resistance 0.5985.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB easing bias, low Swiss yields.
      • Cross: DXY strength, diminishing safe-haven appeal.
      • Levels: Support 0.7800, Resistance 0.7850.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): Neutral.
      • Domestic: Relative CB stance + yields: EUR/GBP BoE more hawkish, EUR/JPY BoJ less hawkish, GBP/JPY both dovish.
      • Cross: DXY, risk sentiment influences cross-of-crosses dynamics.
      • Levels: Monitor each cross’s intra-day range.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields, muted breakevens.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk-off reducing demand.
      • Levels: Support 4500, Resistance 4580.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Subdued industrial demand, weak gold.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion hurting industrial metals.
      • Levels: Support 7500, Resistance 7700.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Potential US-Iran agreement easing supply risks.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: WTI Support 86.50, Resistance 89.00.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth concerns, LME inventory levels.
      • Cross: DXY strength, global growth proxy weakening.
      • Levels: Support 635, Resistance 645.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Rising yields, earnings concerns.
      • Cross: VIX stabilizing, but fragile; global risk tone negative.
      • Levels: Futures support 7570, Cash resistance 7570.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Rising real yields, mega-cap vulnerability.
      • Cross: Rates-sensitivity, VIX uncertainty.
      • Levels: Support 30200, Resistance 30400.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): Mixed earnings, cyclical sensitivity.
      • Cross: Bond-yield reaction, less sensitive than tech.
      • Levels: Support 50700, Resistance 50900.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling strength capping gains.
      • Cross: Global risk-off offset by weaker GBP.
      • Levels: Support 23300, Resistance 23550.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields rising, weak EU data.
      • Cross: US tech weakness, DXY strength adding pressure.
      • Levels: Support 25000, Resistance 25200.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness supportive short-term, BoJ uncertainty.
      • Cross: US tech correlation, overall risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 65000, Resistance 66500.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Weak ETF flows, elevated funding rates.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion hitting crypto assets.
      • Levels: Support 73000, Resistance 74000.

    Positioning watch: JPY is crowded short (4th percentile), and AUD is crowded long (98th percentile). A hawkish surprise from the BoJ or disappointing China data could trigger a painful squeeze.

    The pain trade: A surprisingly dovish BOE and weak US data, fueling a rapid unwinding of USD longs and a squeeze of crowded JPY shorts.

  • Gold Rides Real Yields, Eyes $4575 Test – Friday, 29 May

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) currently trades at $4548.8, up $21.6 (+0.48%) on the session. Intraday, we’ve seen a range of $4519.5 – $4574.3. This puts us above yesterday’s NY close, consolidating gains made during the Asian and European sessions. A sustained break above $4575 could signal further upside momentum.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver remains the persistent weakness in US real yields. The 10-year real yield (TIPS) sits at 2.09%, down 1.0bp as of yesterday’s close, providing a tailwind for gold. Although breakeven inflation expectations are stable at 2.39%, the falling real rate environment is making gold more attractive as an inflation hedge. Some of the gains are likely capped by a slight recovery in the Dollar, with the DXY at 99.01, and the prospect of a US-Iran truce (though Vance’s comments and Trump’s potential disapproval add uncertainty), but the dominant driver remains US real rates.

    • US 10Y Real Yield: 2.09% (-1.0bp d/d as of 2026-05-27) — supports gold.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial positioning in gold at +159,833 contracts, in the 6th percentile on a 52-week lookback. This modestly long positioning suggests limited scope for fresh longs, but ample room for short covering should the rally sustain.
    • The FTSE’s +0.61% move, outpacing the DAX (-0.15%), implies some preference for UK risk assets, diverting focus from continental safe havens.

    NY session focus: Keep a close eye on US yields as the session unfolds. If the 10-year yield drifts lower from its current 4.439%, expect further gold strength. The key level to watch is $4575; a break above that opens the door to a test of $4600. Positioning data suggests the risk is to the upside. The 08:30 ET data dump will be crucial and could easily reverse the risk setup if inflationary pressures come back into view, especially in light of tepid demand in the Asian physical market. The pain trade is a hawkish surprise that sends real yields sharply higher, triggering a swift liquidation of gold positions.