Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading at 69007, down 2.77% or roughly $1962 on the day. The overnight range has been wide, between 68982 and 71519, suggesting some choppy trading. This current level is testing the lower end of that range and is a significant pullback from yesterday’s close.
What’s driving it: The immediate pressure appears to be stemming from uncertainty surrounding spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which have yet to be wired and are creating some unease, with traders taking profits ahead of the US open. Balanced Binance BTCUSDT perp funding at 6.44% annualised suggests no strong directional conviction in the perp market, although it does indicate a bias for longs. The JOLTS job openings data at 10:00 ET will be closely watched, potentially influencing risk sentiment and therefore BTC; weaker data could put downward pressure on the DXY and lift BTC, although this may be a secondary effect to any moves influenced by spot flows.
- Spot BTC ETF net flow remains an unknown factor and a key catalyst for a potential reversal.
- Perp funding is balanced, creating conditions for a short squeeze if spot bid returns.
- Speculator positioning is crowded long, sitting at the 94th percentile, increasing the risk of a deeper correction if sentiment sours.
NY session focus: Traders should be focused on the 10:00 ET JOLTS print which could provide a steer for risk sentiment. Key levels to watch are 68500 as immediate support and 70000 as resistance. The trade that’s at risk is holding large long positions, particularly given the crowded positioning. If ETF flows disappoint again, we could see a flush down towards 67000. The pain trade is a strong upside surprise in ETF inflows, triggering a short squeeze that sends Bitcoin back above 71000.