Category: Crypto

  • BTCUSD Vulnerable Below 68,000 as ETF Flows Slow – Thursday, 21 May

    Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading around $67,850, testing the lower end of its recent range. Overnight action saw BTC briefly dip below $67,500 before a slight bounce. This level represents a key area of support, with the next major level down around $66,000. BTC closed yesterday’s NY session near $68,200.

    What’s driving it: Bitcoin’s price action is currently weighed down by softer spot ETF inflows and balanced Binance funding rates, suggesting a lack of strong conviction amongst leveraged traders. The fact that funding remains balanced even as price tests the lows suggests the market is content to fade rallies. More broadly, the rising US 10Y real yield is creating a headwind for risk assets and precious metals, translating into some risk aversion here, as well. The modest non-commercial net-long positioning implies limited squeeze risk even if price reverses.

    • Binance BTCUSDT perp funding at a neutral 0.0063% per 8h.
    • US 10Y Real Yield is up 5bp d/d to 2.18%, creating headwinds for gold and BTC.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial Bitcoin positioning at a moderately long 5.3% of open interest.

    NY session focus: The 08:30 ET release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims will be closely watched for signals on the US economy’s strength. Focus will be on whether a weak print fuels a risk-on bid and a short squeeze in BTC. Keep an eye on $68,500 as the first key level to break for bulls; below $67,500 opens a test of $66,000. The DDC purchase of 200 BTC is a minor positive but unlikely to be a major driver. The pain trade is a sustained break above $70,000, squeezing shorts and reigniting bullish sentiment.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Wednesday, 20 May

    Regime: Mixed — the VIX at 17.82 suggests a moderately risk-on environment, but rising US 10Y real yields near 2.13% offset the positive sentiment.

    Today’s market themes:

    • FOMC Minutes: focus on the Fed’s inflation outlook and rate-cut timeline.
    • Iran tensions: geopolitical risks weigh on oil and broader sentiment.
    • Nvidia earnings: potential market catalyst, could affirm rally or spur correction.

    The setup: All eyes on the FOMC Minutes at 2 PM ET. The market is pricing in minimal rate cuts this year. Hawkish surprises in the minutes could strengthen the dollar and pressure risk assets. A dovish surprise could weaken the dollar and boost stocks and bonds. Watch the 2Y yield for reaction.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 07:00 London [High] GBP: CPI y/y (forecast 3.0%, prior 3.3%)
    • 11:30 AEST [High] AUD: Employment Change (forecast 16.7K, prior 17.9K)
    • 14:00 ET [High] USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): FOMC minutes could provide hawkish catalysts.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment shifts amid Nvidia earnings anticipation.
      • Levels: Support at 119.00; resistance at 119.50.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (EU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength and rising US yields pressure the pair.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.0830; support at 1.0780.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): CPI miss fueled gilt buying – focus on MPC hearings.
      • Cross: DXY strength and risk appetite weigh on cable.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.2700; support at 1.2650.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ dovish stance and weak wage data.
      • Cross: US 10Y yield strength and DXY provide tailwinds.
      • Levels: Support at 158.50; resistance at 160.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CA): BoC cautious outlook and weak CPI.
      • Cross: DXY strength and weaker oil prices pressure CAD.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3750; resistance at 1.3800.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (AU): RBA cautious stance on inflation. Employment data in focus.
      • Cross: DXY strength and China growth concerns weigh.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.6700; support at 0.6630.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ dovish stance after recent meetings.
      • Cross: DXY strength and risk-off sentiment impact the Kiwi.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.5860; support at 0.5800.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB easing bias supports USD/CHF upside.
      • Cross: DXY strength and risk-off flows support pair.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7850; resistance at 0.7950.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP Bearish, EUR/JPY Bullish, GBP/JPY Bullish.
      • Domestic: Relative CB policy (BoE more hawkish than ECB; BoJ more dovish).
      • Cross: DXY strength weighing on EUR/GBP; risk-on supporting JPY crosses.
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: 0.8480/0.8530; EUR/JPY: 170.00/171.00; GBP/JPY: 193.50/194.50.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields increase the opportunity cost.
      • Cross: DXY strength weighs on Gold.
      • Levels: Resistance at $4,480/oz; support at $4,450/oz.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Weaker industrial demand prospects.
      • Cross: DXY strength and risk-off environment are headwinds.
      • Levels: Resistance at $32.00/oz; support at $31.50/oz.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Iran talks and Ukraine refinery attack priced in.
      • Cross: DXY strength and mixed risk sentiment.
      • Levels: WTI: $100/$103; Brent: $108/$111.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Wait for new China catalyst to lift LME stocks.
      • Cross: DXY and global growth prospects.
      • Levels: Resistance at $5.15; support at $5.00.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): Earnings season nearing end; Fed policy key.
      • Cross: VIX stable, global sentiment depends on Nvidia.
      • Levels: Futures 5300/5340; cash support 5280/5320.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): Nvidia earnings key; real yield reaction impacts valuation.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity and VIX.
      • Levels: 19250/19450.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): Awaiting for more industrials to show positive earnings.
      • Cross: Bond-yield reaction to FOMC minutes.
      • Levels: 39700/39900.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling swings impacting export-heavy index.
      • Cross: Global risk and US tone.
      • Levels: 10200/10300.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (DE): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US tech and DXY.
      • Levels: 24300/24500.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness continues, JGB yields drive sentiment.
      • Cross: US tech and risk regime.
      • Levels: 59500/60000.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flows holding steady, no major funding stress.
      • Cross: DXY and risk sentiment influencing Bitcoin’s price action.
      • Levels: 65000/68000.

    Positioning watch: Crowded longs in AUD and Copper (98th percentile) and crowded shorts in Nasdaq (0th percentile) and JPY (8th percentile) suggest squeeze risks if data improves or Fed turns dovish. Dollar long also extended (85th %ile) exposes downside on risk-on turn.

    The pain trade: A dovish surprise in the FOMC minutes would trigger a short squeeze in Nasdaq, fuel a rally in beaten-down gold, and weaken the dollar, hurting those positioned for higher rates.

  • BTCUSD Vulnerable as ETF Demand Falters – Wednesday, 20 May

    Where we are: Bitcoin is trading around $66,850 as of 13:00 London, holding the level but looking heavy. The overnight range has been relatively tight, between $66,300 and $67,200. This level is slightly below yesterday’s New York close, suggesting some mild overnight selling pressure.

    What’s driving it: The lack of fresh spot BTC ETF flow data is a concern, as the early April enthusiasm appears to be waning, adding uncertainty. Binance BTCUSDT perps funding is balanced at 0.0076% per 8h, suggesting no overwhelming directional bias, although it’s not steep enough to incentivise shorts. Rising real yields in the US, with the 10Y TIPS at 2.13%, present a headwind by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin; this effect is amplified by a firmer USD, as the broad index sits at 119.2825.

    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial Bitcoin positioning is moderately long but has decreased w/w to +1,259 contracts, albeit still in the 79th percentile.
    • US 10Y Real Yields rose 3.0bp d/d as of Monday, placing pressure on non-yielding assets.
    • The Euro stablecoin project gaining backing of 37 banks could be a longer-term challenge to Bitcoin’s dominance if it gains traction, but it is not a primary mover right now.

    NY session focus: All eyes will be on the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 ET. Any hawkish surprises within the minutes could trigger a further sell-off in Bitcoin. Key levels to watch are $66,000, which, if broken decisively, opens the door to a test of $64,500. The trade that’s working is fading rallies near $67,200. The pain trade is a risk-on rally driven by dovish signals in the FOMC minutes, sending BTC through $68,000 and triggering short covering.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Tuesday, 19 May

    Regime: Mixed — VIX at 18.43 signals ongoing unease, but rising US yields underpin USD strength, offsetting risk aversion.

    Today’s market themes:

    • USD dominance: Rising US yields and safe-haven demand continue to buoy the Dollar across the board.
    • Inflation watch: Canadian CPI data offers key test for BoC rate-cut expectations.
    • Positioning unwind: Crowded longs in AUD and Copper face disappointment risk from China slowdown fears.

    The setup: The market is pricing in a hawkish Fed, driving the USD higher, with USD/JPY approaching multi-decade highs near 159.15. The trade is to fade crowded shorts in Nasdaq and Yen while selling AUD on weak data. The risk is a surprise dovish signal from the Fed, triggering a rapid unwinding of USD longs.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 11:30 AEST AUD: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
    • 08:30 ET CAD: CPI m/m (forecast 0.7%, prior 0.9%)
    • 10:00 ET USD: Pending Home Sales m/m (forecast 1.0%, prior 1.5%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Higher
      • Domestic (US): US yields climbing; hawkish Fed repricing.
      • Cross: Safe-haven demand, global uncertainty boosting USD.
      • Levels: Support 119.00, Resistance 119.50.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (EU): Dovish ECB outlook weighing on the Euro.
      • Cross: DXY strength, US-DE 10Y widening.
      • Levels: Support 1.1600, Resistance 1.1700.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (UK): BoE reluctance, claimant count.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk off sentiment, US-UK 10Y.
      • Levels: Support 1.2450, Resistance 1.2550.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Higher
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ remains dovish; intervention risk grows.
      • Cross: US 10Y surging, DXY strength amplifying the move.
      • Levels: Support 158.50, Resistance 160.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Higher
      • Domestic (CA): CPI miss will trigger BOC dovish repricing.
      • Cross: DXY strength, watching US-CA 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.3700, Resistance 1.3750.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (AU): RBA cautious, meeting minutes confirm dovish stance.
      • Cross: DXY strength, China growth concerns.
      • Levels: Support 0.6600, Resistance 0.6650.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ easing bias entrenched.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 0.5800, Resistance 0.5850.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Higher
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response
      • Cross: DXY strength, safe-haven flows supporting.
      • Levels: Support 0.7850, Resistance 0.7900.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: sideways, EUR/JPY: higher, GBP/JPY: higher
      • Domestic: Relative hawkish BoE to ECB; JPY still dovish.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion affecting the crosses.
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: 0.8500-0.8550, EUR/JPY: 170.00-171.00, GBP/JPY: 193.50-194.50.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields weighing on gold.
      • Cross: DXY strength.
      • Levels: Support $4,520, Resistance $4,560.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand mixed, gold ratio flat.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support $31.00, Resistance $32.00.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Sideways
      • Domestic (asset-specific): US-Iran talks weighing.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion muted.
      • Levels: WTI: $100-103, Brent: $108-112.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth worries, LME stock build.
      • Cross: DXY strength, global growth proxy weak.
      • Levels: Support $4.80, Resistance $4.90.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (US): Rising yields, earnings season fades.
      • Cross: Elevated VIX, global risk concerns.
      • Levels: Futures support 5280, resistance 5300.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (US): Rising real yields pressuring valuations.
      • Cross: Rate sensitivity elevated, VIX concerns.
      • Levels: Support 19,300, Resistance 19,400.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (US): Earnings less supportive, cyclicals under pressure.
      • Cross: Bond yield reaction negative.
      • Levels: Support 39,800, Resistance 40,000.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Sideways
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling strength offsetting global weakness.
      • Cross: Global risk tone, US weakness.
      • Levels: Support 8,350, Resistance 8,400.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Sideways
      • Domestic (DE): German HICP eases, no bullish trigger.
      • Cross: US tech weakness, DXY strength.
      • Levels: Support 24,500, Resistance 24,600.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness hurting profitability.
      • Cross: US tech weak; no clear up catalyst.
      • Levels: Support 60,000, Resistance 61,000.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Sideways
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flow slowing, mixed on-chain data.
      • Cross: DXY strength, Nasdaq correlation weighing.
      • Levels: Support $66,000, Resistance $67,000.

    Positioning watch: Crowded longs in AUD (98th percentile) and Copper (98th percentile) expose these assets to significant downside risk if China economic data disappoints or trade tensions escalate. Crowded shorts in Nasdaq (0th percentile) face a squeeze risk if yields drop.

    The pain trade: A surprise dovish turn by the Fed, sparked by weak US data, would trigger a rapid unwinding of USD longs and a rally in equities, catching crowded shorts offside.

  • Bitcoin Under Pressure as Political Risks Emerge – Tuesday, 19 May

    Where we are: BTCUSD is currently trading around $66,800, slightly weaker after an overnight range that saw highs near $67,500. The price sits below Friday’s NY close as risk sentiment has softened. We’re watching for a potential test of support near $66,000.

    What’s driving it: The primary pressure stems from emerging political risks tied to Bitcoin’s perception. The revelation of Nigel Farage receiving a substantial undisclosed gift from a crypto billionaire is fuelling concerns about regulatory scrutiny and mainstream adoption headwinds. Binance BTCUSDT perp funding is balanced at 0.0046% per 8h, suggesting no immediate funding stress despite the negative news flow. Broader risk-off sentiment, evidenced by the rising VIX and higher US yields, is weighing on BTC, as investors rotate into safer assets.

    • Political Flag: The Guardian’s report on Farage’s £5m crypto gift raises questions about political influence and crypto regulation.
    • Macro Headwind: US 10Y real yields have climbed to 2.1%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
    • Positioning: CFTC data shows net non-commercial positions are moderately long at +1,259 contracts, 79th percentile (52w), leaving room for further liquidation if sentiment worsens.

    NY session focus: The key event to watch is the 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales release; a weaker-than-expected print could trigger a risk-off move initially, but might eventually soften the dollar and provide Bitcoin with a temporary boost. We’re watching the $66,000 level closely as a break there could open the door to further downside toward $65,000. A sustained break above $67,500 would alleviate immediate pressure. The trade that’s working is short BTC on rallies. The pain trade is a surprise rally above $68,000 triggered by a weaker-than-forecast Pending Home Sales.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Monday, 18 May

    Regime: Risk-off, driven by rising real yields as 10Y TIPS push above 2% and oil climbs to $105, pressuring equities.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Real-yield repricing and inflation fears weighing on risk assets.
    • Geopolitical tensions in Middle East adding to oil supply concerns.
    • Watch for signs of USD/JPY intervention as pair tests 159.

    The setup: Rising real yields are the dominant driver, pressuring risk assets. Focus on the US 10Y TIPS yield, currently at 2%, as it sets the tone. A break above 2.1% could trigger further equity sell-off and dollar strength. Trade: short SPX futures, stop above 5300. Risk: surprising dovish Fed commentary.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET US Retail Sales (m/m) Forecast: 0.4%, Prior: 0.7%
    • 10:00 ET US NAHB Housing Market Index Prior: 51
    • 11:00 CET ECB President Lagarde Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Hawkish Fed rhetoric, rising US yields
      • Cross: Risk-off sentiment, safe-haven demand
      • Levels: Support 117.80 / Resistance 118.30
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (EU): Weak German data, dovish ECB comments
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, widening US-DE 10Y yield spread
      • Levels: Support 1.0800 / Resistance 1.0850
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (UK): Cautious BoE stance, weak data prints
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk-off flows
      • Levels: Support 1.2550 / Resistance 1.2620
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ dovish, rising JGB yields, intervention watch
      • Cross: Rising US 10Y, DXY strength, risk-off
      • Levels: Support 158.50 / Resistance 159.00
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): BoC holds, CPI is soft, rangebound
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, US-CA 10Y spread widening
      • Levels: Support 1.3650 / Resistance 1.3700
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (AU): Hawkish RBA stance but crowded long positioning
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, weaker China growth, US-AU spread
      • Levels: Support 0.7050 / Resistance 0.7120
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ easing bias, weakening economic momentum
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk aversion, US-NZ yield divergence
      • Levels: Support 0.5800 / Resistance 0.5850
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB neutral, CPI contained
      • Cross: DXY strength, safe-haven unwinding
      • Levels: Support 0.7800 / Resistance 0.7850
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP Neutral, EUR/JPY Bearish, GBP/JPY Neutral
      • Domestic: Diverging central bank policies, relative yield spreads
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk regime dynamics
      • Levels: EUR/GBP 0.8500-0.8550, EUR/JPY 169.50-170.50, GBP/JPY 192.00-193.00
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields, soft CB demand
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk-off environment
      • Levels: Support $4,500 / Resistance $4,550
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Weaker industrial demand, high Gold-Silver ratio
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk aversion
      • Levels: Support $30.00 / Resistance $31.00
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Tight supply, geopolitics, rising demand
      • Cross: Risk-off, inflation hedge
      • Levels: WTI Support $100 / Resistance $105
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Weak China, rising LME stocks
      • Cross: DXY strength, global growth concerns
      • Levels: Support $5.00 / Resistance $5.10
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Rising yields, Fed outlook
      • Cross: VIX elevated, global risk-off
      • Levels: Futures 5285, support 5250, resistance 5300 cash
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Real yields pressure valuations
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity, VIX
      • Levels: Support 18,100 / Resistance 18,300
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Earnings cyclical concerns, yields
      • Cross: Bond-yield reaction
      • Levels: Support 39,700 / Resistance 40,000
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): Mixed data, Gilt yields
      • Cross: Global risk, US tone
      • Levels: Support 8,400 / Resistance 8,450
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (DE): Weak German data, rising Bund yields
      • Cross: US tech, DXY, risk regime
      • Levels: Support 23,600 / Resistance 23,800
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (JP): Strong JPY, rising JGB yields, BoJ stance
      • Cross: US tech, risk regime
      • Levels: Support 60,500 / Resistance 61,000
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF outflows
      • Cross: DXY, risk regime, Nasdaq correlation
      • Levels: Support $60,000 / Resistance $62,000

    Positioning watch: AUD and Copper are crowded long at >98th percentile, creating significant squeeze risk if US data surprises to the upside or China stimulus disappoints. Nasdaq is crowded short at the 0th percentile, vulnerable to a rally.

    The pain trade: A dovish surprise from a Fed speaker would ignite a risk rally, squeezing crowded short positions in Nasdaq and causing dollar weakness.

  • Bitcoin Wobbles as Saylor Capitulates – Monday, 18 May

    Where we are: BTCUSD is currently trading around $61,500, modestly lower on the session. Overnight range was relatively contained, between $61,000 and $62,000. This level sits slightly below Friday’s New York close, suggesting some early softness ahead of the US open. Key support remains around $60,000, with resistance building near $63,000.

    What’s driving it: The near-term outlook for Bitcoin is clouded by mixed signals. Binance BTCUSDT perp funding is balanced, suggesting no immediate directional pressure from leveraged traders, but the lack of ETF flow data is concerning. The comments from Michael Saylor are a clear sentiment headwind. While broader risk appetite may be marginally supported by a slightly lower VIX, the rise in US real yields is offering an alternative store of value and weighing on non-yielding assets.

    • Saylor changing his stance on selling Bitcoin is an obvious sentiment shift.
    • US 10Y Real Yields are at 2% and trending higher, creating a compelling risk-free alternative to Bitcoin.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial Bitcoin positioning at the 79th percentile, suggesting limited room for further long accumulation and increased vulnerability to a squeeze lower.

    NY session focus: The main event risk for Bitcoin will be reaction to upcoming earnings news, with Nvidia and Walmart results potentially driving risk sentiment. Keep an eye on the $60,000 level as a break there could accelerate losses. Initial resistance is at $63,000. If BTC trades heavy into the 08:30 ET open, the $60,000 level will be tested, and a close below would signal further weakness. The pain trade is a sudden resurgence of spot ETF inflows, triggering a short squeeze above $63,000.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Friday, 15 May

    Regime: Risk-off, driven by rising oil prices and inflation worries spooking bond markets, pushing US 2Y yields to 3.98%.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Oil supply scare: Strait of Hormuz tensions driving WTI above $104, fueling inflation concerns.
    • Global bond selloff: Rising oil and inflation fears triggering broad-based bond yield increases.
    • USD strength: Dollar continues to rally on Fed hike expectations, nearing best week since March.

    The setup: Oil supply disruptions are the dominant driver, pushing inflation expectations higher and triggering a global bond selloff. The trade is to fade equity rallies, especially in growth names, as real yields rise. Risk is a de-escalation in Middle East tensions, sending oil and yields lower.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET US PPI (Prior: +0.2%)
    • 10:00 ET US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prior: 77.2)
    • 15:00 CET ECB’s Lagarde speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Hawkish Fed bets, resilient US data, rising US yields.
      • Cross: Global risk aversion, flight to safety, EUR/USD weakness.
      • Levels: Support 98.50, Resistance 99.50
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (EU): Dovish ECB, persistent inflation challenges, peripheral stress.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, widening US-DE 10Y yield spread, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 1.1600, Resistance 1.1700
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (UK): BoE hawkishness priced in, potential for dovish repricing, Gilt underperformance.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, widening US-UK 10Y yield spread, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 1.3350, Resistance 1.3450
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ remains dovish, intervention threat looms, JGBs constrained.
      • Cross: Rising US 10Y yield, strong DXY, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 157.50, Resistance 158.50
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): BoC’s cautious stance, CPI remains elevated, sensitive to oil price swings.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, widening US-CA 10Y yield spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.3650, Resistance 1.3750
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (AU): RBA reluctance to tighten aggressively, iron ore price concerns.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, China slowdown fears, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 0.7150, Resistance 0.7250
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ easing bias firmly entrenched, Dairy prices remain weak.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 0.5800, Resistance 0.5900
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB likely to maintain dovish stance, moderate Swiss yields.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk aversion driving safe-haven flows out of CHF.
      • Levels: Support 0.7800, Resistance 0.7900
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Bearish, EUR/JPY: Bearish, GBP/JPY: Neutral
      • Domestic: BoE remains relatively more hawkish than ECB/BoJ, yield divergence supports GBP.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion, cross-of-crosses flows impacting correlations.
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: R: 0.8550 S: 0.8500; EUR/JPY: R: 171.00 S: 170.50; GBP/JPY: R: 193.00 S: 192.50
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields, lower breakevens weighing on gold.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk-off sentiment limited support.
      • Levels: Support $4,575, Resistance $4,600
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Weak industrial demand, Gold-Silver ratio trending higher.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk aversion exacerbating downside.
      • Levels: Support $4,450, Resistance $4,500
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Strait of Hormuz tensions, potential supply disruptions, inventories tight.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY providing some offset to risk-off flows.
      • Levels: WTI: S: $102, R: $105; Brent: S: $106, R: $109
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth concerns, LME stocks elevated, supply outlook improving.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk-off sentiment weighing on industrial metals.
      • Levels: Support $9,800, Resistance $10,000
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Rising real yields, concerns about future earnings growth.
      • Cross: Elevated VIX, global risk-off sentiment weighing on equities.
      • Levels: Futures: Support 5220, Resistance 5280
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Real yield sensitivity, mega-cap valuations stretched, AI hype fading.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity, elevated VIX indicating heightened volatility.
      • Levels: Support 19500, Resistance 19700
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Concerns about future earnings growth, pressure on cyclical sectors.
      • Cross: Rising bond yields impacting valuations.
      • Levels: Support 39500, Resistance 40000
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (UK): Stronger Sterling weighing, Gilt yields rising, commodity sector under pressure.
      • Cross: Global risk aversion, US tone dragging on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 8350, Resistance 8400
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (DE): Rising Bund yields, weak IFO/ZEW survey data, EU growth concerns.
      • Cross: US tech weakness, DXY strength, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 24100, Resistance 24300
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (JP): Stronger JPY weighing, BoJ under pressure to act, JGB yield curve flattening.
      • Cross: US tech weakness, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 38500, Resistance 39000
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Elevated funding rates, ETF flows slowing, on-chain metrics mixed.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk aversion, Nasdaq correlation weighing on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support $61,000, Resistance $63,000

    Positioning watch: AUD and Bitcoin are crowded longs (>95th percentile) vulnerable to disappointment if risk aversion intensifies or data disappoints, creating squeeze risk. JPY is a crowded short (<15th percentile) and could rally hard if the BoJ surprises or intervention occurs.

    The pain trade: A de-escalation in Middle East tensions, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices and a rally in risk assets, would hurt crowded short positions in bonds and crowded long positions in the dollar.

  • Bitcoin Consolidates After Overnight Dip; Squeeze Risks Remain – Friday, 15 May

    Where we are: BTCUSD is currently trading around $62,050, holding steady after an overnight dip to $61,500. The price action remains choppy, oscillating within a $1,500 range since the New York close yesterday. Immediate resistance lies at $62,500, a break above which could open the door to a retest of $63,000. Support is found at $61,000, a breach of which could signal a deeper correction.

    What’s driving it: Bitcoin’s price action is currently muted with slightly negative perpetual funding rates on Binance (-4.17% annualized). Spot ETF net flows are the primary focus for direction, though those haven’t wired yet. We’re also still awaiting the on-chain data points (active addresses, exchange netflows). The crowded long positioning evident in the CFTC data (83rd percentile) leaves Bitcoin vulnerable to a squeeze if fresh inflows fail to materialize or sentiment sours. A slight softening in US 2Y yields (-2bp yesterday) offers marginal support, but the domestic crypto narrative dominates for now.

    • Binance BTCUSDT perpetual funding: -0.0038% per 8h (annualised ≈ -4.17%), indicating a slightly bearish bias in the derivatives market.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial positions at +1,441 contracts, down -951 w/w but still in the 83rd percentile, highlighting squeeze risk.
    • Christopher Harborne, a crypto billionaire, entered the UK rich list at No 6, highlighting the growing influence of crypto wealth.

    NY session focus: Traders will be closely monitoring the release of US data at 08:30 ET for any impact on broader risk sentiment and USD. Key levels to watch are $61,000 and $62,500, with a break of either potentially triggering a significant move. The current consolidation offers a potential entry point for longs if positive ETF flow data emerges. The pain trade for Bitcoin remains a sharp correction fueled by weak ETF inflows and a squeeze of overleveraged longs.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Thursday, 14 May

    Regime: Mixed; VIX at 17.99 with US yields rising slightly and the DXY consolidating gains around 118.15 indicates a tentative risk-neutral stance.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Trump-Xi meeting impact: assessing US-China trade and oil relationship, especially regarding Iran sanctions.
    • US Retail Sales: markets are awaiting direction with Retail Sales release.
    • Crowded trades: the market is set up for a potential short squeeze, with several currencies and asset classes showing heavily skewed positioning.

    The setup: Traders are positioned for USD strength and are short GBP, JPY, and NZD. US retail sales data will be key to either confirming this bias or triggering a squeeze. Watch US 10Y yields; sustained move above 4.5% could exacerbate USD strength.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 07:00 London GBP: GDP m/m (forecast -0.1%, prior 0.5%)
    • 08:30 ET USD: Core Retail Sales m/m (forecast 0.7%, prior 1.9%)
    • 08:30 ET USD: Retail Sales m/m (forecast 0.5%, prior 1.7%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (US): Data dependent on Retail Sales, Fed policy on inflation.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment / global growth outlook drive flows
      • Levels: Support 117.80 / Resistance 118.30
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (EU): ECB rhetoric, EU data release sensitive to global narrative.
      • Cross: DXY strength, US-DE 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.1680 / Resistance 1.1740
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (UK): GDP print spurring rate cut bets, Gilt yield declines.
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-UK 10Y widening
      • Levels: Support 1.2450 / Resistance 1.2520
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ’s hawkish tone not enough to combat carry demand.
      • Cross: US 10Y strength / risk-on / intervention watch
      • Levels: Support 157.50 / Resistance 158.00
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): BoC policy path, oil price fluctuations are the driver.
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-CA 10Y differential.
      • Levels: Support 1.3680 / Resistance 1.3740
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (AU): RBA policy path / key commodity prices affecting sentiment.
      • Cross: DXY correlation, China growth, US-AU 10Y
      • Levels: Support 0.7170 / Resistance 0.7230
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ dovish stance is the driver.
      • Cross: DXY direction, Risk / US-NZ 10Y
      • Levels: Support 0.5900 / Resistance 0.5950
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB’s easing policy stance.
      • Cross: DXY strength, safe-haven demand fluctuation.
      • Levels: Support 0.7800 / Resistance 0.7850
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP Neutral, EUR/JPY Neutral, GBP/JPY Bearish
      • Domestic: Rate spreads/relative central bank stance
      • Cross: Risk, cross-of-crosses
      • Levels: Watch relative breaks; range trades
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields are the driver.
      • Cross: DXY influence, risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 4670 / Resistance 4700
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Gold-Silver ratio influences direction.
      • Cross: DXY influence, risk correlation.
      • Levels: Support 30.40 / Resistance 30.70
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Supply/demand influences, WTI-Brent Spread affects trend.
      • Cross: DXY influence, risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 100.50 / Resistance 102.50
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth outlook is the main driver.
      • Cross: Global growth sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 5.00 / Resistance 5.10
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Earnings, Fed policy influences market direction.
      • Cross: Risk regime, Global Tone, yields correlation.
      • Levels: Futures level Support 5330 / Resistance 5350.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap earnings are a major factor.
      • Cross: Rates / Volatility (VIX).
      • Levels: Support 18,750 / Resistance 18,850
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Industrial / Financial earnings support this.
      • Cross: Bond yield / overall market tone affecting direction.
      • Levels: Support 50,000 / Resistance 50,250
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): Domestic-centric influences such as Sterling performance.
      • Cross: Market Sentiment / US tone impacting direction.
      • Levels: Support 8,400 / Resistance 8,450
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (DE): Domestic sentiment and yields.
      • Cross: US tech impacts, DXY correlation.
      • Levels: Support 24,350 / Resistance 24,450
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): JPY impacts, BOJ policy stance.
      • Cross: US tech influence, global risk factors.
      • Levels: Support 38,800 / Resistance 39,200
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flow / on-chain metrics drive direction.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment & Nasdaq performance impact.
      • Levels: Support 61,500 / Resistance 62,500

    Positioning watch: AUD/USD, Copper, and Bitcoin are crowded longs, creating squeeze risk if data disappoints; GBP, JPY, and NZD are crowded shorts, vulnerable to upside surprises. CFTC shows dollar index positioning very stretched.

    The pain trade: A dovish tilt from the Fed combined with strong UK data and a resolution of Iran tensions would trigger a massive short squeeze in GBP, JPY, NZD, Gold, and rates.

  • Bitcoin Drifts Lower as Macro Focus Shifts – Thursday, 14 May

    Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading around $62,050, slightly below the overnight range of $61,800 to $62,500. This is down from yesterday’s New York close around $62,300. Key support remains at $60,000, while resistance is forming around $63,000. Intraday momentum is weak, suggesting consolidation ahead of key data releases.

    What’s driving it: Bitcoin is lacking a distinct asset-specific driver this morning as we await spot ETF flow data and on-chain activity metrics. Binance BTCUSDT perp funding is balanced, around 0.70% annualised, offering no directional signal. Meanwhile, broader risk sentiment, influenced by rising US real yields (+4.0bp d/d to 1.99%) and a steady dollar (USD Broad Index at 118.0392), is weighing slightly on BTC. Traders are cautiously positioned ahead of the 08:30 ET retail sales print which will set the tone for the remainder of the session.

    • US 2Y Yield at 4% (+5.0bp d/d) indicating short-end rates pressure.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial Bitcoin positioning at +1,441 contracts, a crowded long position (83rd percentile) increasing squeeze risk on any negative surprises.
    • WTI Crude at $101.56/bbl, up 2.72% overnight, suggesting continued inflationary pressures which could influence Fed policy and risk appetite.

    NY session focus: All eyes are on the 08:30 ET US Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims releases, with stronger-than-expected data likely triggering a further rise in US yields and potentially pressuring Bitcoin. Key levels to watch are $60,000 (support) and $63,000 (resistance). The short BTC/long ETH ratio trade is looking increasingly attractive given ETH’s relative outperformance. The pain trade for Bitcoin would be a surprisingly weak retail sales print triggering a sharp risk-on move, squeezing shorts and sending BTC back towards $65,000.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Wednesday, 13 May

    Regime: Mixed — VIX holding near 18.40 amid rising US real yields, capping risk appetite.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Real-rate repricing: Fed nomination vote and PPI data set to dictate the pace of the climb, pressuring gold and growth stocks.
    • Iran War Impact: Ongoing supply disruptions and inventory depletion boosting oil prices, triggering inventory concerns.
    • Crowded FX positions: Extreme positioning in AUD, NZD, JPY and GBP presents squeeze risks on data surprises.

    The setup: Rising real yields are the dominant force. Focus is on US PPI and the Fed nomination vote today to further define the Fed’s path. Watch for a continued bid in US yields to pressure equities and gold, with DXY bid into the European open. Key is whether 10Y TIPS break 2.00%.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET USD: Core PPI m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.1%)
    • 08:30 ET USD: PPI m/m (forecast 0.5%, prior 0.5%)
    • 14:30 ET USD: Fed Chair Nomination Vote (forecast Pass, prior —)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Strong US data supports hawkish Fed, boosting USD.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows and rising US yields underpin the dollar.
      • Levels: Support 117.80, Resistance 118.50.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (EU): Eurozone growth concerns and relatively dovish ECB weigh on EUR.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and widening US-DE yield spread pressure EUR/USD.
      • Levels: Support 1.0760, Resistance 1.0820.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (UK): BoE easing expectations, pressured by persistent inflation, weigh on the Pound.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and widening US-UK yield spread pressure Cable.
      • Levels: Support 1.2460, Resistance 1.2520.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ still dovish relative to Fed; intervention risk lingers.
      • Cross: Higher US yields drive USD/JPY higher despite intervention risks.
      • Levels: Support 157.75, Resistance 158.50.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): WTI price volatility offsets CAD strength from BoC rate cuts.
      • Cross: USD strength and widening US-CA yield spreads favor upside.
      • Levels: Support 1.3650, Resistance 1.3700.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (AU): RBA easing expectations and weak CPI growth weigh on AUD.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and risk-off sentiment hurt the Aussie.
      • Levels: Support 0.7175, Resistance 0.7225.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ dovishness and concerns about domestic demand hurt the Kiwi.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and risk-off sentiment weigh on NZD/USD.
      • Levels: Support 0.5900, Resistance 0.5950.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB intervention unlikely; Swiss yields remain low.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows less supportive with strong USD driving gains.
      • Levels: Support 0.7800, Resistance 0.7850.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral, EUR/JPY: Bullish, GBP/JPY: Bullish
      • Domestic: Relative CB stance — BoE slightly more hawkish than ECB. BoJ lags both.
      • Cross: DXY strength benefiting JPY crosses, risk tone dictates flows.
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: 0.8510-0.8560, EUR/JPY: 169.00-170.00, GBP/JPY: 192.80-193.80
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields are a significant headwind.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and risk-off environment further pressure Gold.
      • Levels: Support $4,675, Resistance $4,725.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand is soft, Gold/Silver ratio rising.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and risk-off environment weigh on Silver.
      • Levels: Support $29.00, Resistance $29.50.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): IEA reports record draw in global oil inventories due to Iran War.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment generally supportive, but DXY strength a cap.
      • Levels: WTI Support $101.00, Resistance $103.00.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth concerns resurface, LME stocks remain high.
      • Cross: Global growth worries and DXY strength pressure Copper.
      • Levels: Support $5.00, Resistance $5.10.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Higher yields weigh on valuations, focus on earnings.
      • Cross: VIX spikes indicate potential for further downside risk.
      • Levels: Futures support 5200, resistance 5250 (cash: key levels to use).
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap tech vulnerable to higher real yields.
      • Cross: High rate sensitivity amplifies downside in risk-off environment.
      • Levels: Support 19,500, Resistance 19,700.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical sector earnings sensitive to rising yields.
      • Cross: Bond yield reaction to data key driver of Dow performance.
      • Levels: Support 39,000, Resistance 39,500.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling strength offsetting positive global risk sentiment.
      • Cross: Global risk appetite supports, but US tone a key determinant.
      • Levels: Support 8350, Resistance 8400.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields stable; focus on EU sentiment indicators.
      • Cross: US tech performance influences DAX, DXY strength is a cap.
      • Levels: Support 24,000, Resistance 24,100.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness supports, BoJ policy stance is key.
      • Cross: US tech performance and risk-on sentiment drive Nikkei.
      • Levels: Support 63,000, Resistance 63,500.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Funding rates remain elevated, ETF flows slowing.
      • Cross: DXY strength and risk-off sentiment hurt Bitcoin. Nasdaq correlation matters.
      • Levels: Support $62,000, Resistance $63,000.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded longs in AUD, Copper, and Bitcoin (above 80th percentile), vulnerable to a squeeze on any downside surprises. Crowded shorts in GBP, JPY and NZD present an upside risk.

    The pain trade: A surprise dovish tilt from the Fed on the nomination vote or a much weaker-than-expected PPI print would trigger a short squeeze in crowded USD shorts and boost risk assets, especially the crowded AUD/USD longs.

  • Bitcoin Choppy as Political Risks Add Volatility – Wednesday, 13 May

    Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading around $62,850, holding steady after a volatile overnight session that saw it range between $62,000 and $63,500. This level is slightly below yesterday’s New York close, and BTC remains under pressure from the $64,000 resistance. Consolidation appears to be the theme as markets await the morning’s PPI print.

    What’s driving it: The political angle is beginning to add a new layer of uncertainty to Bitcoin, with news of an investigation into Nigel Farage over a substantial crypto donation raising eyebrows. While direct impact is limited, it highlights the increasing intersection of crypto and politics, which can bring regulatory scrutiny. Domestically, balanced funding rates on Binance perps (0.0017% per 8h) provide little directional impetus for now; we are awaiting wired spot BTC ETF net flow and on-chain data for further signals. A broadly firmer USD, with the dollar index at 118.0392 and US 2Y yields up 5bp to 3.95%, is offering some headwinds, and the rising 10Y real yield at 1.95% continues to weigh on gold and by extension, risk assets like Bitcoin.

    • Nigel Farage investigation adds political risk premium.
    • CFTC data shows Bitcoin crowded long, with net non-commercial positions at +1,441 contracts (83rd percentile), raising squeeze risk if sentiment sours.
    • Charles Schwab launching crypto trading could provide a tailwind, expanding retail access.

    NY session focus: Traders are keying in on the 08:30 ET PPI release and the 14:30 ET Fed Chair Nomination Vote; any surprise in either could trigger volatility. Watch for a break above $64,000 to signal renewed bullish momentum, while a drop below $62,000 could open the door to further downside towards $60,000. Currently, fading intraday rallies is the preferred strategy, though squeezes given positioning are high risk. The pain trade here is a sustained breakout above $65,000, triggering a wave of short covering.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Tuesday, 12 May

    Regime: Risk-off, driven by stronger-than-expected US CPI data and escalating Middle East tensions, pushing the VIX higher and US 10Y yields up 5bp to 4.43%.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Real-rate repricing: Hotter CPI print fuels hawkish Fed bets, pressuring risk assets.
    • Geopolitical risk: Iran war uncertainty keeps oil elevated, supporting inflation concerns.
    • Crowded shorts: Potential for squeeze in JPY, GBP, and NZD if risk sentiment improves.

    The setup: The stronger-than-expected US CPI print has triggered a hawkish repricing of Fed expectations, sending US yields higher and the dollar stronger. This is pressuring risk assets, particularly tech and emerging markets. The trade is to fade rallies in risk assets, but watch for potential short squeezes in crowded short currencies if geopolitical risks abate or US data disappoints. US 10Y at 4.43%, DXY at 98.25.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET USD: Core CPI m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.2%)
    • 11:59 ET USD: Fed Chair Nomination Vote (forecast Pass, prior —)
    • 11:30 AEST AUD: Wage Price Index q/q (forecast 0.8%, prior 0.8%)

    Bias by asset:

    STRICT SILO RULE: For every non-USD asset, the Domestic line MUST contain only domestic content (home central bank / domestic data / domestic yield / domestic political-fiscal driver). USD, DXY, Fed, US yields, and risk regime go in the Cross line — never in Domestic. If no fresh domestic catalyst exists, write “No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response” in Domestic. For commodities, Domestic = real-yields / supply / inventories / flows. For BTC, Domestic = funding / ETF flow / on-chain.

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Hawkish Fed repricing on CPI beat. Rising US yields support.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows, safe-haven demand, EM weakness.
      • Levels: Resistance at 98.50, support at 98.00.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (EU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, widening US-DE 10Y yield spread, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.0800, support at 1.0750.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): Rising UK borrowing costs pressure.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, widening US-UK 10Y yield spread, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.3550, support at 1.3500.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ remains dovish. Intervention risk looming.
      • Cross: Higher US 10Y yields, strong DXY, risk-off bids into USD.
      • Levels: Resistance at 158.00, support at 157.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CA): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, US-CA 10Y yield spread widening.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.3750, support at 1.3700.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (AU): Awaiting Wage Price Index data.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, US-AU 10Y yield spread widening, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.7220, support at 0.7175.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ easing bias remains in place.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, US-NZ 10Y yield spread widening, risk-off flows.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.5960, support at 0.5920.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, waning safe-haven appeal of CHF.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.7820, support at 0.7780.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral, EUR/JPY: Bearish, GBP/JPY: Bearish.
      • Domestic: Relative central bank policy divergence remains key driver.
      • Cross: DXY strength supports JPY and GBP.
      • Levels: Monitor individual cross support/resistance.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields pressure gold.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk-off flows less supportive with rates rising.
      • Levels: Resistance at $4,720, support at $4,680.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): No fresh catalyst — sensitive to overall risk tone.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk-off sentiment, industrial demand concerns.
      • Levels: Monitor gold for direction, lower volatility.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Supply disruption fears, escalating geopolitical tensions.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY provides some support, but risk-off a headwind.
      • Levels: Watch for Iran ceasefire news.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth concerns weigh.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, global growth proxy suffers from risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Monitor China data.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Higher yields, earnings rotation away from growth.
      • Cross: Elevated VIX, global risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Futures at 5185. Support at 5170, resistance at 5200.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Sensitive to real yields, mega-cap earnings under pressure.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity, VIX elevation.
      • Levels: Monitor tech stocks for price action.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): Financials and industrials facing mixed earnings.
      • Cross: Bond-yield reaction muted.
      • Levels: Trading near flatline, awaiting catalyst.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): Weaker Sterling, higher Gilt yields.
      • Cross: Global risk, US tone negative.
      • Levels: Trading lower in Europe.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (DE): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US tech weakness, stronger DXY, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Trading lower on lack of drivers.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness capped by intervention risk.
      • Cross: US tech selling pressure, risk off.
      • Levels: High close, vulnerable to correction.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Funding rates easing, ETF flows slowing.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk aversion, Nasdaq correlation.
      • Levels: Finding soft support after overnight retreat.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded longs in AUD, USD, Copper, and Bitcoin, creating potential downside risk if data disappoints or risk sentiment shifts. Crowded shorts in JPY, GBP, and NZD present squeeze potential if risk appetite recovers.

    The pain trade: A surprise dovish signal from the Fed Chair Nomination Vote, coupled with weaker-than-expected US data later in the week, would trigger a sharp short squeeze in JPY, GBP, and NZD, while simultaneously hammering the USD.

  • Bitcoin Weakens on Technicals, Inflation Data Looms – Tuesday, 12 May

    Where we are: Bitcoin is trading around $62,300, finding soft support after retreating from its overnight range high near $63,000. This level is below the prior NY close and suggests a continuation of yesterday’s softer tone. The market is currently awaiting today’s key US CPI print, which could inject volatility into the session.

    What’s driving it: Bitcoin’s near-term direction is currently being dictated by technical factors after a period of relative calm in underlying drivers. Binance BTCUSDT perp funding is balanced at 0.0027% per 8h, or ~3% annualized, indicating neither strong bullish nor bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. Spot ETF flows are pending and on-chain data is not yet wired, so there is no strong domestic catalyst in play this morning. Macro crosscurrents, specifically the 08:30 ET US CPI release, will be the major factor in today’s price action. Elevated CPI prints will likely push US yields higher, weighing on Bitcoin.

    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial positioning in Bitcoin at +1,441 contracts, down 951 w/w but still at the 83rd percentile, raising the risk of a squeeze on any downside surprises.
    • The US 10Y Real Yield (TIPS) has fallen to 1.93%, a tailwind for gold and, to some extent, Bitcoin as an alternative asset.
    • Michael Terpin’s prediction of a Bitcoin correction before another bull market phase, while not an immediate driver, could be weighing on sentiment and keeping a lid on upside breakouts.

    NY session focus: The main event is the 08:30 ET US CPI data release. A strong print (CPI y/y above 3.7%) should send US 10Y yields higher, potentially pushing BTC towards $60,000. Conversely, a soft print could fuel a relief rally towards $64,000, although resistance is expected to hold. Focus should be on watching the initial reaction to the data and fading any knee-jerk moves. The passing of the Fed Chair nomination vote (11:59 ET) is fully priced in. The pain trade for Bitcoin would be a stagnant CPI print that leaves the market in limbo, fostering indecision and choppy price action.