Analysis failed: {“error”:{“code”:404,”message”:”Publisher Model `projects/subnalysis/locations/europe-west1/publishers/google/models/gemini-2.0-flash` was not found or your project does not have access to it. Please ensure you are using a valid model version. For more information, see: https://cloud.google.com/vertex-ai/generative-ai/docs/learn/model-versions”,”status”:”NOT_FOUND”}}
Category: Crypto
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Error analysing Bitcoin
Analysis failed: {“error”:{“code”:404,”message”:”Publisher Model `projects/subnalysis/locations/europe-west1/publishers/google/models/gemini-2.0-flash` was not found or your project does not have access to it. Please ensure you are using a valid model version. For more information, see: https://cloud.google.com/vertex-ai/generative-ai/docs/learn/model-versions”,”status”:”NOT_FOUND”}}
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NY Session Tactical Brief – Tuesday, 9 June
Analysis failed: {“error”:{“code”:404,”message”:”Publisher Model `projects/subnalysis/locations/europe-west1/publishers/google/models/gemini-2.0-flash` was not found or your project does not have access to it. Please ensure you are using a valid model version. For more information, see: https://cloud.google.com/vertex-ai/generative-ai/docs/learn/model-versions”,”status”:”NOT_FOUND”}}
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Error analysing Bitcoin
Analysis failed: {“error”:{“code”:404,”message”:”Publisher Model `projects/subnalysis/locations/europe-west1/publishers/google/models/gemini-2.0-flash` was not found or your project does not have access to it. Please ensure you are using a valid model version. For more information, see: https://cloud.google.com/vertex-ai/generative-ai/docs/learn/model-versions”,”status”:”NOT_FOUND”}}
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NY Session Tactical Brief – Monday, 8 June
Analysis failed: {“error”:{“code”:404,”message”:”Publisher Model `projects/subnalysis/locations/europe-west1/publishers/google/models/gemini-2.0-flash` was not found or your project does not have access to it. Please ensure you are using a valid model version. For more information, see: https://cloud.google.com/vertex-ai/generative-ai/docs/learn/model-versions”,”status”:”NOT_FOUND”}}
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Error analysing Bitcoin
Analysis failed: {“error”:{“code”:404,”message”:”Publisher Model `projects/subnalysis/locations/europe-west1/publishers/google/models/gemini-2.0-flash` was not found or your project does not have access to it. Please ensure you are using a valid model version. For more information, see: https://cloud.google.com/vertex-ai/generative-ai/docs/learn/model-versions”,”status”:”NOT_FOUND”}}
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NY Session Tactical Brief – Friday, 5 June
Analysis failed: {“error”:{“code”:404,”message”:”Publisher Model `projects/subnalysis/locations/europe-west1/publishers/google/models/gemini-2.0-flash` was not found or your project does not have access to it. Please ensure you are using a valid model version. For more information, see: https://cloud.google.com/vertex-ai/generative-ai/docs/learn/model-versions”,”status”:”NOT_FOUND”}}
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Error analysing Bitcoin
Analysis failed: {“error”:{“code”:404,”message”:”Publisher Model `projects/subnalysis/locations/europe-west1/publishers/google/models/gemini-2.0-flash` was not found or your project does not have access to it. Please ensure you are using a valid model version. For more information, see: https://cloud.google.com/vertex-ai/generative-ai/docs/learn/model-versions”,”status”:”NOT_FOUND”}}
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NY Session Tactical Brief – Thursday, 4 June
Analysis failed: {“error”:{“code”:404,”message”:”Publisher Model `projects/subnalysis/locations/europe-west1/publishers/google/models/gemini-2.0-flash` was not found or your project does not have access to it. Please ensure you are using a valid model version. For more information, see: https://cloud.google.com/vertex-ai/generative-ai/docs/learn/model-versions”,”status”:”NOT_FOUND”}}
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Error analysing Bitcoin
Analysis failed: {“error”:{“code”:404,”message”:”Publisher Model `projects/subnalysis/locations/europe-west1/publishers/google/models/gemini-2.0-flash` was not found or your project does not have access to it. Please ensure you are using a valid model version. For more information, see: https://cloud.google.com/vertex-ai/generative-ai/docs/learn/model-versions”,”status”:”NOT_FOUND”}}
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NY Session Tactical Brief – Wednesday, 3 June
Analysis failed: {“error”:{“code”:404,”message”:”Publisher Model `projects/subnalysis/locations/europe-west1/publishers/google/models/gemini-2.0-flash` was not found or your project does not have access to it. Please ensure you are using a valid model version. For more information, see: https://cloud.google.com/vertex-ai/generative-ai/docs/learn/model-versions”,”status”:”NOT_FOUND”}}
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Error analysing Bitcoin
Analysis failed: {“error”:{“code”:404,”message”:”Publisher Model `projects/subnalysis/locations/europe-west1/publishers/google/models/gemini-2.0-flash` was not found or your project does not have access to it. Please ensure you are using a valid model version. For more information, see: https://cloud.google.com/vertex-ai/generative-ai/docs/learn/model-versions”,”status”:”NOT_FOUND”}}
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NY Session Tactical Brief – Tuesday, 2 June
Regime: Mixed: VIX steady at 15.32 but yields are pulling back modestly, capping the DXY at 99.05 amid light risk-off sentiment.
Today’s market themes:
- ECB watch: Eurozone inflation data reinforces the case for a June rate hike, setting up a potential hawkish surprise.
- Oil supply: Geopolitical tensions compete with global demand concerns and US-Iran talks, causing volatility.
- Positioning squeeze: Crowded short JPY and crowded long BTC may be vulnerable given current data.
The setup: Eurozone CPI data is key today. The market is pricing in a high probability of an ECB rate cut in June, so an upside surprise could trigger a significant EUR rally against both the USD and GBP. Key risk is a weaker-than-expected print, confirming the dovish expectations and leading to EUR weakness. Watch EUR/USD at 1.1650 and US-DE 10Y spread for confirmation.
Watch list (native time per event):
- 11:00 CET EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y (forecast 2.4%, prior 2.2%)
- 10:00 ET USD JOLTS Job Openings (forecast 6.87M, prior 6.87M)
- 11:30 AEST AUD GDP q/q (forecast 0.5%, prior 0.8%)
Bias by asset:
- DXY:
- Direction: Neutral
- Domestic (US): Fed data watch / yield levels
- Cross: Euro strength / risk sentiment
- Levels: Support 98.80 / Resistance 99.20
- EUR/USD:
- Direction: Bullish
- Domestic (EU): Inflation data key for ECB path
- Cross: DXY pullback / US-DE 10Y widening
- Levels: Support 1.1620 / Resistance 1.1680
- GBP/USD (Cable):
- Direction: Neutral
- Domestic (UK): BoE Bailey speech / Gilt direction
- Cross: DXY / US-UK 10Y stable
- Levels: Support 1.3440 / Resistance 1.3500
- USD/JPY:
- Direction: Bearish
- Domestic (JP): Intervention risk / yield curve control
- Cross: US 10Y stable / risk-off tone
- Levels: Support 159.50 / Resistance 160.00
- USD/CAD (Loonie):
- Direction: Neutral
- Domestic (CA): WTI under pressure / BoC stance
- Cross: DXY / US-CA 10Y stable
- Levels: Support 1.3820 / Resistance 1.3860
- AUD/USD (Aussie):
- Direction: Neutral
- Domestic (AU): GDP and commodity prices in focus
- Cross: DXY / US-AU 10Y spread
- Levels: Support 0.7150 / Resistance 0.7200
- NZD/USD (Kiwi):
- Direction: Bearish
- Domestic (NZ): RBNZ easing bias / dairy prices
- Cross: DXY / risk sentiment
- Levels: Support 0.5900 / Resistance 0.5950
- USD/CHF (Swissy):
- Direction: Neutral
- Domestic (CH): SNB stance / Swiss data
- Cross: DXY / risk-off flows
- Levels: Support 0.7840 / Resistance 0.7880
- EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
- Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP Bullish, EUR/JPY Bullish, GBP/JPY Neutral
- Domestic: ECB vs BoE/BoJ differentials
- Cross: DXY / risk sentiment
- Levels: Watch relative yield spreads
- XAU (Gold):
- Direction: Bullish
- Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields down / CB demand
- Cross: DXY / risk aversion
- Levels: Support 4500 / Resistance 4550
- XAG (Silver):
- Direction: Bullish
- Domestic (asset-specific): industrial demand / gold link
- Cross: DXY / risk sentiment
- Levels: Support 7500 / Resistance 7700
- WTI / Brent:
- Direction: Bearish
- Domestic (asset-specific): EIA data / OPEC / US-Iran talks
- Cross: DXY / risk sentiment
- Levels: Support 90.00 / Resistance 92.00
- Copper:
- Direction: Neutral
- Domestic (asset-specific): China demand outlook
- Cross: DXY / global growth outlook
- Levels: Support 660 / Resistance 670
- SPX:
- Direction: Neutral
- Domestic (US): earnings / Fed watch / yields
- Cross: VIX regime / global risk
- Levels: Futures support 7580 / cash resistance 7620
- NDX:
- Direction: Neutral
- Domestic (US): earnings / real yields
- Cross: Rate sensitivity / VIX
- Levels: Support 30300 / Resistance 30600
- US30 (Dow):
- Direction: Neutral
- Domestic (US): earnings / cyclical tone
- Cross: Bond-yield reaction
- Levels: Support 50700 / Resistance 51000
- UK100 (FTSE):
- Direction: Bullish
- Domestic (UK): Sterling direction / Gilt yields
- Cross: Global risk / US tone
- Levels: Support 23200 / Resistance 23400
- DAX:
- Direction: Neutral
- Domestic (DE): Bund yields / data watch
- Cross: US tech / DXY
- Levels: Support 25100 / Resistance 25300
- Nikkei:
- Direction: Neutral
- Domestic (JP): JPY level / JGB
- Cross: US tech / risk sentiment
- Levels: Support 65500 / Resistance 66700
- BTC:
- Direction: Bearish
- Domestic (asset-specific): funding rates / ETF flows
- Cross: DXY / risk sentiment / Nasdaq correlation
- Levels: Support 68000 / Resistance 70000
Positioning watch: JPY remains heavily shorted (0th percentile), increasing squeeze risk if the BoJ signals policy normalization. BTC is also a crowded long (94th percentile), leaving it vulnerable to profit-taking on any risk-off move.
The pain trade: A surprise hawkish signal from the ECB, combined with soft US data, would spark a EUR rally and punish USD longs, while forcing JPY shorts to cover aggressively.
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Bitcoin Under Pressure as ETF Flows Remain Elusive – Tuesday, 2 June
Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading at 69007, down 2.77% or roughly $1962 on the day. The overnight range has been wide, between 68982 and 71519, suggesting some choppy trading. This current level is testing the lower end of that range and is a significant pullback from yesterday’s close.
What’s driving it: The immediate pressure appears to be stemming from uncertainty surrounding spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which have yet to be wired and are creating some unease, with traders taking profits ahead of the US open. Balanced Binance BTCUSDT perp funding at 6.44% annualised suggests no strong directional conviction in the perp market, although it does indicate a bias for longs. The JOLTS job openings data at 10:00 ET will be closely watched, potentially influencing risk sentiment and therefore BTC; weaker data could put downward pressure on the DXY and lift BTC, although this may be a secondary effect to any moves influenced by spot flows.
- Spot BTC ETF net flow remains an unknown factor and a key catalyst for a potential reversal.
- Perp funding is balanced, creating conditions for a short squeeze if spot bid returns.
- Speculator positioning is crowded long, sitting at the 94th percentile, increasing the risk of a deeper correction if sentiment sours.
NY session focus: Traders should be focused on the 10:00 ET JOLTS print which could provide a steer for risk sentiment. Key levels to watch are 68500 as immediate support and 70000 as resistance. The trade that’s at risk is holding large long positions, particularly given the crowded positioning. If ETF flows disappoint again, we could see a flush down towards 67000. The pain trade is a strong upside surprise in ETF inflows, triggering a short squeeze that sends Bitcoin back above 71000.
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BTC Under Pressure as USD Bids Before Data – Monday, 1 June
Where we are: Bitcoin currently trades at 72058, down 2.32% on the day, carving out a range of 71843-74094. The overnight dip accelerated in early European trade, piercing initial support near 72500. This puts BTC below Friday’s New York close and closer to the bottom of the established range. Ethereum is relatively outperforming, down 1.13% to 1986, trading a 1967-2020 range.
What’s driving it: Bitcoin is reacting negatively to a slight bid in the dollar and a softening risk tone ahead of key US data. While Binance BTCUSDT perp funding is balanced at 0.0100% per 8h, the absence of fresh spot ETF inflow data and on-chain activity metrics leaves BTC vulnerable to external shocks. This backdrop makes BTC particularly sensitive to the upcoming ISM prints and any hawkish signals from FOMC Member Powell later today.
- USD: The DXY’s move through 99.00 suggests some haven demand ahead of the data.
- Yields: A slight flattening of the curve (10Y -2.0bp, 2Y -1.2bp) hints at growth concerns.
- Positioning: The elevated net long positioning (+2,282 contracts, 94th %ile) increases the risk of a squeeze on any further downside surprises.
NY session focus: The primary focus for the New York session is the 10:00 ET ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid data. A stronger-than-expected print could further bolster the dollar and pressure Bitcoin, while a weaker print might offer a temporary reprieve. Traders will also be watching for clues from FOMC Member Powell’s speech at 20:30 ET. Key levels to watch are 71800 for support and 73000 for resistance. The short BTC / long ETH trade is currently working, but vulnerable to a broad risk rally. The pain trade is a surprisingly dovish Powell coupled with strong ETF inflows, sending BTC back above 74000 and squeezing over-levered shorts.