Category: Crypto

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Saturday, 25 April

    Today’s market themes:

    • Iran talks: Shifting expectations for US-Iran negotiations drives swings in oil and risk sentiment.
    • Dollar weakness: Broad USD selling pressure continues, impacting FX crosses and commodity prices.
    • Tech rebound: Nasdaq leading equities higher, fueled by a rotation back into growth and mega-cap stocks.

    The setup: Equities are bid into the NY open on hopes for Iran deal progress, weighing on crude and USD. Look for pullbacks in oil to be bought if Trump’s stance softens, and USD dip-buying at 98.15 DXY. US 10Y at 4.302% offers resistance.

    Watch list (London time):

    • 17:00 USD: President Trump Speaks (Medium)
    • No other scheduled events
    • No Central Bank Speakers

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY: Down – Iran talks pressure, target 98.00.
    • EUR: Up – Weak USD, US-DE 10Y spread +131bp supports.
    • GBP: Up – Sentiment improved, US-UK 10Y spread -61bp.
    • JPY: Down – Risk-on flows overshadow US-JP 10Y +187bp.
    • CAD: Up – Weaker USD and oil price sensitivity at 1.3650.
    • AUD: Up – Risk appetite lifts, eyeing 0.7200.
    • NZD: Up – Dollar weakness main driver, 0.5900 target.
    • CHF: Down – Risk-on offsets safe-haven demand; watch 0.7800.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY: Mixed – Play risk sentiment and individual drivers.
    • XAU (Gold): Up – Real yields falling, target 4775.
    • XAG (Silver): Up – Following Gold, watch Gold/Silver ratio.
    • WTI / Brent: Down – Iran talk hopes weighing, choppy around $94/$105.
    • Copper: Neutral – Modest China demand concerns; hold 600.
    • SPX: Up – Risk-on, 7250 potential on break of 7200.
    • NDX: Up – Rates ease, mega-caps lead, new highs possible.
    • US30: Neutral – Lagging tech, focus on economic data later in the week.
    • UK100: Down – Underperforming EU peers, still heavy tone.
    • DAX: Neutral – Holding steady, weak tech hampering.
    • Nikkei: Up – Catching up to US tech move, watch 60000.
    • BTC: Neutral – Consolidation near highs, risk-on/off correlation still relevant.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded longs in USD, AUD, Copper, and Bitcoin, and crowded shorts in JPY and NZD — any hawkish comments from the Fed or negative trade news could trigger violent short squeezes in JPY/NZD.

    The pain trade: A complete breakdown of US-Iran talks and renewed Hormuz tensions would spike oil, send the dollar higher, and crush risk assets.

  • Bitcoin Fades on DXY Strength; Beware Trump Rally – Saturday, 25 April

    Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading at $77,596, down $337 (-0.43%) on the day, within a daily range of $77,397-$78,572. This is slightly below yesterday’s NY close, with early dip-buyers so far appearing to have little conviction. The dip comes despite strength in S&P 500 futures, suggesting Bitcoin is decoupling from risk-on sentiment this morning.

    What’s driving it: DXY strength is likely weighing on Bitcoin, with the dollar index up 0.30% to 98.36. Recent flows into Bitcoin ETFs could provide a floor, but the overcrowded long positioning in Bitcoin futures remains a concern. Focus will likely shift to President Trump’s speech later at 17:00 London time, which could inject volatility given his recent crypto endorsements – and his own coin’s lackluster performance.

    • Wire headline: Bitcoin ETFs added $2.1B in 8 days – last time this happened, Bitcoin hit an all-time high.
    • DXY currently at session highs of 98.36, after a 98.32 overnight low.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial Bitcoin positioning at the 90th percentile, signaling squeeze risk.

    NY session focus: Traders should watch for a potential breakout in the DXY above 98.50, which could trigger further downside in Bitcoin. A break below $77,397 could lead to a test of $77,000. Conversely, a risk-on tone in equities could see Bitcoin recover to the $78,000 level. The Trump speech at 17:00 London is a wild card, potentially sparking a sharp rally or sell-off, with positioning ripe for a squeeze. The pain trade here is a sudden DXY reversal sending BTC hurtling through $80,000.