Category: Commodities

  • Gold Wobbles Below $4,710 Amid Inflation Jitters – Tuesday, 12 May

    Where we are: Gold is currently trading just below $4,710, struggling to find direction after oscillating overnight. The price action remains choppy, caught between support around $4,700 and resistance near $4,725. This level is below Friday’s NY close.

    What’s driving it: Falling real yields continue to provide underlying support for gold, with the US 10Y real yield down 3bp to 1.93% as of Friday’s close. That tailwind is somewhat countered by ongoing concerns about inflation, as reflected in the 2bp rise in 10Y breakeven inflation to 2.47%. The market is now bracing for today’s 08:30 ET CPI print, which could significantly impact the Fed’s policy outlook and, consequently, real rates. Speeches today from Fed governors Cook, Waller and Vice Chair Bowman on tokenization and Fed operations are unlikely to move the needle, as they are backward-looking to events last week.

    • US 10Y Real Yield: 1.93% (-3.0bp d/d), supporting gold
    • Indian banks are resuming bullion imports after a month-long halt, per Reuters. This should increase physical demand.
    • Net non-commercial gold positioning remains modestly long, at the 21st percentile, suggesting no immediate squeeze risk.

    NY session focus: All eyes are on the 08:30 ET US CPI release, with forecasts calling for a rise to 3.7% y/y. A hotter-than-expected print would likely trigger a spike in nominal yields and a subsequent drop in gold, while a softer reading could see gold push higher, testing resistance around $4,730. Keep an eye on the Fed Chair nomination vote later today; a surprise failure to pass could trigger risk-off flows and benefit gold. The trade that’s working is buying dips on real-yield weakness. The trade at risk is shorting gold ahead of the CPI data. The pain trade is a dovish surprise from CPI leading to aggressive short covering, sending gold to $4,750.

  • US Oil Primed for Post-CPI Volatility – Tuesday, 12 May

    Snapshot: WTI crude futures are holding above $101.00, anticipating volatility from this morning’s 08:30 ET US CPI release. Concerns over Strait of Hormuz disruptions remain a key supportive factor, but the domestic data looms largest near-term.

    • Watch for a break above $102.00 on a hot CPI print, potentially targeting last week’s highs.
    • Downside risk exists if CPI misses, potentially triggering a retest of $100.00.

    Bias into NY: Sideways with an upward tilt predicated on geopolitical risks and tight supply, but awaiting the CPI data to confirm the next directional move. We see potential for a spike higher if core CPI prints above 0.3%, reinforcing the view that the Fed will need to maintain its hawkish stance.

  • North Sea Brent Crude Remains Bid on Supply Concerns – Tuesday, 12 May

    Snapshot: Brent crude futures are holding above $107, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions and supply disruption fears. President Trump’s comments on the US-Iran ceasefire have heightened concerns about the Strait of Hormuz, overshadowing the slightly softer close in US 10Y yields.

    • Watch the 08:30 ET US CPI prints; a strong reading could boost the USD and weigh on Brent.
    • Geopolitical risk surrounding Iran remains the key upside driver.

    Bias into NY: Bullish, with the potential for further upside towards $108.50 given ongoing supply risks, but the 08:30 ET CPI could trigger a reversal if inflation comes in hotter than expected.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Monday, 11 May

    Regime: Risk-off, with oil spiking on escalating Middle East tensions and Trump rejecting Iran’s peace offer, VIX at 17.08 and 10Y yields slightly higher.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Geopolitical Risk: Middle East tensions driving oil and safe-haven flows.
    • Rate Divergence: CB policy driving FX crosses, particularly EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY.
    • Commodity Strength: Silver and Copper continue to show strong performance.

    The setup: Geopolitical tensions are escalating quickly, pushing oil higher and boosting safe-haven demand. The market is pricing in a higher risk of supply disruptions from the Middle East. Watch for further headlines as the situation develops; a break above $105 in Brent could trigger a larger risk-off move. US 10Y yield is at 4.393%.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 09:30 CST CNY: CPI y/y (forecast 0.9%, prior 1.0%)
    • 09:30 CST CNY: PPI y/y (forecast 1.7%, prior 0.5%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (US): Fed watching data; US yields steady
      • Cross: Geopolitical risk-off; Euro weakness capping upside
      • Levels: Support: 97.80, Resistance: 98.03
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (EU): ECB divergence widening vs BoE and Fed
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-DE 10Y spread widening / Risk-off
      • Levels: Support: 1.1749, Resistance: 1.1782
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): BoE hawkish hold / higher Gilt yields supporting
      • Cross: DXY / US-UK 10Y spread / Risk-off offsets domestic strength
      • Levels: Support: 1.3570, Resistance: 1.3616
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ dovish / JGB yields capped / Intervention watch
      • Cross: Higher US 10Y yield / DXY / risk regime
      • Levels: Support: 156.76, Resistance: 157.18
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (CA): BoC dovish / WTI strength offset by CAD weakness
      • Cross: DXY / US-CA 10Y spread
      • Levels: Support: 1.3661, Resistance: 1.3695
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (AU): RBA neutral / China data sensitivity
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-AU 10Y / China growth uncertainty
      • Levels: Support: 0.7220, Resistance: 0.7249
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ dovish / dairy prices lackluster
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-NZ 10Y / risk-off sentiment
      • Levels: Support: 0.5939, Resistance: 0.5957
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (CH): SNB dovish / Swiss yields low
      • Cross: DXY strength / safe-haven unwinding
      • Levels: Support: 0.7774, Resistance: 0.7795
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Down; EUR/JPY: Up; GBP/JPY: Up
      • Domestic: EUR/GBP: BoE vs ECB; EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY: rate divergence
      • Cross: DXY / risk regime / cross-of-crosses dynamics
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: 0.8647/0.8668; EUR/JPY: 184.39/185.02; GBP/JPY: 212.73/213.87
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields / ETF outflows
      • Cross: DXY strength / risk-off demand limited
      • Levels: Support: 4655.6, Resistance: 4714.2
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand / Gold strength
      • Cross: DXY / risk regime
      • Levels: Support: 7953.000, Resistance: 8418.000
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Geopolitical risk / potential supply disruption
      • Cross: DXY / risk regime
      • Levels: WTI: Support: 96.64, Resistance: 100.35; Brent: Support: 102.90, Resistance: 105.97
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China stimulus / LME stock levels
      • Cross: DXY / global growth proxy
      • Levels: Support: 625.4000, Resistance: 641.4300
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): higher yields / earnings plateau
      • Cross: VIX rising / global risk aversion
      • Levels: Futures support: 7391.00, Resistance: 7420.25, Cash support: 7398.90
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): Real yields / AI bubble potential
      • Cross: Rates sensitive / Rising VIX
      • Levels: Futures support: 29227.50, Resistance: 29399.25
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical rotation out / yields impact
      • Cross: bond-yield reaction
      • Levels: Futures support: 49471, Resistance: 49706
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling strength / Gilt yields rising
      • Cross: global risk aversion / US tone
      • Levels: Support: 22742, Resistance: 22850
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (DE): Lower Bund yields / weaker outlook
      • Cross: US tech weakness / DXY / risk regime
      • Levels: Support: 24204, Resistance: 24362
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (JP): Strong JPY / JGB yields rising slightly
      • Cross: US tech weakness / risk regime
      • Levels: Support: 62393, Resistance: 63385
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Crowded longs / Funding rates high
      • Cross: DXY / risk regime / Nasdaq correlation
      • Levels: Support: 62393, Resistance: 63385

    Positioning watch: AUD/USD and Bitcoin are crowded longs (96th and 83rd percentile, respectively), making them vulnerable to a squeeze lower on any disappointment or USD strength. GBP and JPY are crowded shorts, a positive surprise could trigger a squeeze higher.

    The pain trade: A surprise de-escalation in Middle East tensions combined with a dovish signal from the Fed would trigger a massive short squeeze in USD/JPY and GBP/USD, while simultaneously crushing oil prices and unwinding crowded long positions in AUD and BTC.

  • Gold Slides as Real Yields Climb – Monday, 11 May

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4701.3, down 3.9 points (-0.08%) on the session. The intraday range has been relatively contained, between 4655.6 and 4714.2. This price action sees it sitting below Friday’s New York close after a mild rally last week.

    What’s driving it: Gold is under pressure from rising US real yields, with the 10-year TIPS yield climbing to 1.96% (+2.0bp d/d, as of 2026-05-07). The move in real rates is overshadowing the steady 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which remains at 2.45%. The overall tone is not being helped by Modi’s comments asking Indians to stop buying gold, which is rippling through jewellery stocks.

    • 10Y Real Yield (TIPS): 1.96% (+2.0bp d/d) — a headwind for Gold.
    • Reuters is reporting that Gold is falling on oil-driven inflation fears as Trump rejects Iran peace proposal.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial positions at +163,303 contracts, a modestly long stance but only at the 21st percentile of the 52-week range, suggesting limited squeeze potential at these levels.

    NY session focus: With no major US data releases scheduled for 08:30 ET, focus will likely remain on the interplay between yields and risk sentiment. Key level to watch is the 4650.0 level; a break below could open the door to further downside. The trade that’s working is shorting gold on rallies, while the trade at risk is chasing momentum to the downside if yields consolidate. The pain trade for gold would be a sudden dovish pivot from the Fed, sending real yields lower.

  • Oil Recovers as Geopolitical Tensions Flare – Monday, 11 May

    Snapshot: WTI crude is trading at $98.27, up 0.43% on the session, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raise supply concerns. Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal and drone attacks near Qatar are today’s catalysts.

    • Watch for a break above $100.35 to confirm upside momentum, targeting $102 next.
    • Risk: Further escalation in the Middle East could lead to a significant supply shock.

    Bias into NY: Bullish. The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with the failure of negotiations with Iran, supports higher prices, with a potential test of $100 in sight if tensions persist.

  • Brent Crude Climbs on Middle East Tensions – Monday, 11 May

    Snapshot: Brent Crude is trading at $104.29, up 0.13%, as escalating tensions in the Middle East, specifically President Trump’s rejection of Iran’s peace proposal and drone attacks near Qatar, raise concerns about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Aramco’s report of increased pipeline capacity offers some offset to the geopolitical risk premium.

    • Watch for further developments in the Iran situation; a break above $105.97 could signal further upside.
    • Risk: A de-escalation in the Middle East could lead to a rapid pullback in Brent.

    Bias into NY: Expect continued choppy trading in Brent with an upward bias toward $105.50, driven by ongoing supply-disruption risk premium, even as the DXY remains steady at 97.87 and US yields consolidate.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Friday, 8 May

    Regime: Risk-on, as equity futures surge on hopes of softer US payrolls and bond yields drift lower (US 10Y at 4.357%).

    Today’s market themes:

    • US Payrolls showdown: markets bracing for a potential dovish surprise amid a crowded USD long positioning.
    • Iran tensions: Oil prices remain volatile amid geopolitical instability and supply concerns.
    • Central Bank Divergence: Focus on Lagarde and Bailey speeches while watching BoJ comments regarding JPY.

    The setup: The market is pricing in a weaker-than-expected US jobs report, fueling a rally in risk assets. The crowded USD long position leaves room for a significant squeeze if the data disappoints. Watch US 10Y yield response to payrolls and the DXY level around 97.77.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET USD: Non-Farm Employment Change (forecast 65K, prior 178K)
    • 08:30 ET CAD: Employment Change (forecast 12.9K, prior 14.1K)
    • 13:20 London GBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Fed policy outlook dependent on US data, especially labor market.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment dependent on USD strength, FX cross flows.
      • Levels: Support at 97.50, resistance at 98.20.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (EU): ECB’s rhetoric, core inflation and German Bund yields.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, US-DE 10Y spread favoring EUR, positive risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 1.1700, resistance at 1.1800.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (UK): BoE policy guidance, Gilt yields, services CPI.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, US-UK 10Y spread, risk on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3550, resistance at 1.3650.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ policy, JGB yield curve control, intervention threat.
      • Cross: US 10Y yields, DXY direction, risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 156.00, resistance at 157.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (CA): BoC policy, Employment change data and WTI correlation.
      • Cross: DXY direction, US-CA 10Y yield spread.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3600, resistance at 1.3700.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, US-AU 10Y spread, China growth outlook.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7200, resistance at 0.7250.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (NZ): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, US-NZ 10Y spread, risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 0.5900, resistance at 0.5975.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB stance and Swiss yield curve.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, safe-haven demand.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7750, resistance at 0.7810.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral, EUR/JPY: Bullish, GBP/JPY: Bullish.
      • Domestic: Relative CB policy, relative yield spreads drive direction.
      • Cross: DXY, risk regime, cross-of-crosses dynamics.
      • Levels: Watch key technical levels, sensitive to GBP and JPY crosses.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields trending lower, rising breakevens, central bank demand.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 4700, resistance at 4750.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand expectations, gold-silver ratio.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 8100, resistance at 8200.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Mixed.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Iran tensions, EIA inventory data, OPEC output levels.
      • Cross: DXY, risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Watch inventory reports, supply disruptions.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Positive China growth outlook, LME stocks, supply issues.
      • Cross: DXY, global growth.
      • Levels: Support at 625, resistance at 635.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Earnings season, Fed policy outlook, US yield reaction.
      • Cross: VIX suppression, global sentiment.
      • Levels: Futures resistance at 7420, cash support 7330.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap tech earnings, real yields and AI investments.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity, low VIX environment.
      • Levels: Support at 28800, resistance at 29000.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Industrial earnings, cyclical sentiment.
      • Cross: Bond yields response.
      • Levels: Support at 49500, resistance at 50000.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Global risk, and US macro performance.
      • Levels: Support at 22800, resistance at 22950.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (DE): German Bund yields and broader Eurozone sentiment.
      • Cross: US Tech, DXY, risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 24400, resistance at 24550.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY strength sensitivity, JGB yields, BoJ policy.
      • Cross: US tech, global risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 62500, resistance at 62800.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF inflows, on-chain activity, funding rate.
      • Cross: DXY direction, risk sentiment, and Nasdaq correlation.
      • Levels: Support at $79,000, resistance at $80,500.

    Positioning watch: USD, AUD and BTC are crowded longs, S&P, Nasdaq, GBP, JPY and NZD are crowded shorts. A strong payrolls number will amplify the USD short squeeze while a weak number risks a violent short squeeze in GBP, JPY and Nasdaq.

    The pain trade: A strong US jobs report would trigger a massive USD rally, crush risk assets, and inflict maximum pain on the crowded short positions in GBP, JPY and tech stocks.

  • Gold Breaks $4700 Amid Real Yield Decline – Friday, 8 May

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) currently trades at 4739.5, up 0.85% on the session, having traded in a range of 4690.7-4743.5. Bullion is bid firmly above the psychological 4700 level and is testing the upper end of its recent range, supported by the ongoing decline in real yields. Intraday momentum has accelerated in the last hour, building on gains seen during the Asian session.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver for gold remains the continued decline in US real yields. The 10-year TIPS yield fell 2.0bp to 1.94% earlier this week, providing a tailwind for the precious metal. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is also contributing, rising 3.0bp to 2.45%. The Fed’s Cook speaking on tokenization may be a distraction from the core macro drivers, as traders focus more on the yield curve and inflation expectations, alongside a slightly weaker dollar tone.

    • US 10Y Real Yields are down 2.0bp, underpinning the bullish move in gold.
    • DXY has softened to 97.77, offering further support to the commodity.
    • CFTC data indicates that non-commercial positions in gold are moderately long, leaving room for further upside before squeeze risk becomes acute.

    NY session focus: The key focus for the NY session will be the 08:30 ET US jobs report, with Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate all in play. A weaker-than-expected print could further pressure real yields and lift gold towards 4750. A strong print risks a reversal, with initial support around 4700. Expect choppy trading around the 10:00 ET Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment release. The pain trade for gold is a hawkish surprise in the jobs numbers, triggering a sharp rise in yields and a dollar bid.

  • Oil Slides as Ceasefire Hopes Offset Hormuz Tensions – Friday, 8 May

    Snapshot: WTI Crude trades at 95.10, down 2.35% on the session. President Trump’s comments reinforcing the Iran ceasefire are weighing on prices despite ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Watch for the 08:30 ET US employment data, especially Non-Farm Payrolls, for further direction.

    • Key support is seen at the day’s low of 93.86.
    • The risk of renewed clashes between US and Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz remains a potential upside catalyst.

    Bias into NY: Expect continued downside pressure on US Crude as long as diplomatic hopes persist; a break below 93.86 opens the door to further losses. The weaker DXY is offering only limited support.

  • Brent Crude Slides on Trump’s Ceasefire Comments – Friday, 8 May

    Snapshot: Brent is down 2.06% to $100.43, driven lower by President Trump’s comments reinforcing hopes for a ceasefire with Iran. This comes despite earlier reports of fresh clashes in the Strait of Hormuz and continues to pressure North Sea crude.

    • Watch for volatility around the 08:30 ET US jobs data (Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate), which could impact risk sentiment and the dollar.
    • Geopolitical risk remains elevated; any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz could quickly reverse the current downside.

    Bias into NY: Expect continued downside pressure on Brent Crude below $100 if the US data prints soft and reinforces the ceasefire narrative. A break above $102.93 would negate this view.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Thursday, 7 May

    Regime: Mixed, with VIX holding steady at 17.38 and US yields slightly lower, suggesting a cautious risk-on sentiment tempered by geopolitical tensions.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Mideast Peace Potential: Easing oil supply concerns dominate, pressuring crude and boosting risk assets.
    • Dollar Weakness: DXY continues its descent, supporting EUR, GBP, AUD, and gold.
    • Earnings Rotation: Focus shifts to industrial and financial earnings in the US after tech-led rally.

    The setup: Markets are pricing in a higher probability of a Middle East peace deal, driving WTI down nearly 6% to $90.21. This is providing a tailwind for risk assets, especially equities. However, crowded positioning in USD and Aussie could trigger a squeeze on any hawkish surprises. Watch US Unemployment Claims at 08:30 ET.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET USD: Unemployment Claims (forecast 205K, prior 189K)
    • 10:00 ET USD: Factory Orders (prior 0.8%)
    • 14:00 BST GBP: BoE’s Breeden speaks on Inflation

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): Fed likely to remain cautious; watch claims data.
      • Cross: Risk-on sentiment weighing; EUR and GBP strength.
      • Levels: Resistance at 97.90, support at 97.65.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (EU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, positive risk sentiment, US-DE 10Y widening.
      • Levels: Support at 1.1740, resistance at 1.1800.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, boosted by positive risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3590, resistance at 1.3650.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US 10Y stable, risk-on environment, intervention risk high.
      • Levels: Support at 156.00, resistance at 156.50.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (CA): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: WTI weakness, DXY direction, US-CA 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3620, resistance at 1.3650.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, China growth optimism.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7230, resistance at 0.7270.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (NZ): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, positive risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 0.5950, resistance at 0.5990.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, safe-haven outflows into risk-on.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7770, resistance at 0.7800.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP neutral, EUR/JPY up, GBP/JPY up
      • Domestic: Relative hawkishness of BoE priced in; BoJ dovish.
      • Cross: Risk-on favoring JPY crosses; DXY impact on EUR/GBP.
      • Levels: Monitor ranges, relative yield direction key.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising as breakevens rise; CB demand supportive.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, safe haven demand diminishing.
      • Levels: Support at 4700, resistance at 4765.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand supportive.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, positive risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 8000, resistance at 8250.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Peace deal/higher supply.
      • Cross: DXY strength would add to move lower; risk aversion would add to move lower.
      • Levels: Support at 90.00, resistance at 96.00.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China rebound expectations/LME-stock
      • Cross: Global growth proxy; Dollar strength a headwind
      • Levels: Support at 615, resistance at 625
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Earnings momentum; rates stabilize.
      • Cross: Positive global tone, VIX suppression.
      • Levels: Futures support at 7380, resistance at 7410, cash support 7300.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap tech earnings supportive/ AI narrative.
      • Cross: Lower rates sensitivity, high beta.
      • Levels: Resistance at 28800, support 28600.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Rebound in industrial earnings; cyclical shift.
      • Cross: Responding positively to bond-yield relief.
      • Levels: Resistance near 50200, support at 49900.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Global risk, benefiting from oil decline.
      • Levels: Support at 22800, resistance at 23000.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields stable; weak economic data.
      • Cross: Watching US tech strength; risk-on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 24850, resistance at 25000.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness driving earnings.
      • Cross: Catching up with US tech performance; risk-on buying.
      • Levels: Support at 62000, resistance at 63000.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flow-dependent, funding elevated.
      • Cross: risk-regime, positive overall, high correlation to tech.
      • Levels: Support at 80500, resistance at 81700.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded longs in AUD, Copper, and Bitcoin (>90th percentile) and crowded shorts in JPY, GBP, and Nasdaq (

    The pain trade: A hawkish surprise from the US Unemployment Claims, triggering a USD rally and sending risk assets lower, would hurt the most positions.

  • Gold Breaks Two-Week High on US-Iran Peace Hopes – Thursday, 7 May

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4755.8, up 55.3 points or 1.18% on the day, having traded in a range of 4694.0 to 4763.4. This represents a two-week high for the precious metal. Gold is currently extending gains seen in the Asian and European sessions, buoyed by hopes of a US-Iran peace deal.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver appears to be the potential for a US-Iran peace agreement, with reports suggesting a memorandum of understanding has been proposed to formally end the conflict, which has seen oil prices tumble and inflation worries ease, supporting gold’s rise above $4,700. The drop in oil prices, driven by peace hopes, is a major factor, easing inflationary pressures and reducing expectations of continued restrictive central bank policies. While real yields are a headwind, rising 1.0bp to 1.96% as of yesterday, the risk-on sentiment driven by potential peace, coupled with a softer DXY at 97.69, is currently outweighing this.

    • The Reuters wire at 01:23 noted that gold climbed to a two-week high “as US-Iran peace hopes push oil lower”.
    • The 10Y breakeven inflation rate fell 5.0bp yesterday, potentially signaling reduced inflationary concerns.
    • Despite Goolsbee’s warning about sticky inflation, the market is pricing in lower inflation expectations and reacting positively to the possibility of geopolitical stability.

    NY session focus: The key event for the NY session will be the Unemployment Claims data at 08:30 ET; a significantly higher-than-expected print (forecast 205K vs. previous 189K) could potentially trigger a flight to safety, further boosting gold. Watch for a potential breakout above intraday highs of 4763.4. A failure to sustain gains above 4750 could see a retracement towards 4725-4730. The current trade is clearly long gold on geopolitical de-escalation. The risk for this trade is a hawkish surprise from central bank speakers, or a reversal in peace talks. The pain trade is a sudden resurgence of inflation fears and a corresponding spike in real yields, sending Gold sharply lower.

  • WTI Crude Crumbles on Middle East Deal Hopes – Thursday, 7 May

    Snapshot: WTI Crude is trading at $90.21, down 5.86% on the session, driven by reports of a potential Middle East peace deal that could ease supply concerns. The market now awaits the 08:30 ET US Unemployment Claims release, although geopolitical news flow is likely to remain the dominant driver.

    • A break below $90.00 in WTI could trigger further selling pressure.
    • Watch for confirmation or denial of the peace deal from official sources; Trump’s cautionary comments introduce uncertainty.

    Bias into NY: Bearish, with potential for further downside to $88.00 if the peace deal gains traction, while a DXY hovering near 97.70 provides only limited support. We see risk tilted to further selling pressure given elevated geopolitical risk premia.

  • Brent Crude Hammered by Middle East Peace Deal Hopes – Thursday, 7 May

    Snapshot: Brent crude trades at $96.37, down $5.52 on the session, driven lower by reports of a potential Middle East peace deal. The prospect of reopened Strait of Hormuz is weighing heavily. Watch for the 08:30 ET US Unemployment Claims data.

    • Immediate support likely around the $96.00 level, the bottom of today’s range.
    • Risk of further downside pressure should Trump’s reservations about an Iran deal solidify or the Unemployment Claims print surprises to the upside.

    Bias into NY: Bearish on Brent, expecting further downside towards $95.00 if peace deal momentum persists, amplified by a potential recovery in the DXY as US yields stabilize.