Snapshot: WTI crude has tumbled below $75.00 per barrel, hitting its lowest level since early March as supply anxieties evaporate following a surprise US-Iran interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While yesterday’s FOMC projections and economic policy updates maintain a cautious backdrop, the physical market is transfixed by the imminent return of sidelined Persian Gulf barrels. Today’s near-term domestic catalysts are the 08:30 ET Philly Fed and Unemployment Claims prints.
- Key levels: The clean break of $75.00 opens the path toward the March pivot of $72.80, though historically tight Cushing inventories at 20 million barrels will provide a hard physical floor.
- NY Session risk: Moderate long liquidation risk remains as CFTC net non-commercial positioning sits at +130,301 contracts (52nd percentile), vulnerable to further unwind if shipping normalization accelerates.
Bias into NY: We hold a bearish bias, looking to sell intraday retracements toward $75.20 for a test of $73.00, as the massive physical supply injection dominates any secondary relief from falling 10-year Treasury yields.