Snapshot: The Aussie is holding firm above 0.7000 despite a clear domestic calendar today, anchored by the RBA’s persistent hawkishness and reluctance to cut the cash rate from 4.10%. While Governor Bullock maintains a tight stance on uneven inflation, the currency finds additional support from a softer USD Broad Index at 119.5073 and lower US 10-year real yields at 2.14% ahead of key US releases.
- Lack of fresh local catalysts forces the market to rely on the RBA’s restrictive policy floor, with CFTC positioning showing leveraged funds recently trimmed net-long exposure by 23,652 contracts to a healthier +18,160.
- US data at 08:30 ET (Philly Fed and jobless claims) represents the main volatility driver, risking a USD rally if strong prints validate Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish stance and squeeze the Aussie back toward late-session lows.
Bias into NY: We lean long AUD/USD on pullbacks toward 0.6980, targeting a push back to 0.7050 as the RBA’s relative hawkishness limits downside in a choppy risk environment.