Snapshot: The Swiss Franc is capturing a renewed safe-haven bid near the 0.8000 level against the dollar after the SNB left its policy rate unchanged at 0% yesterday, reinforcing its active easing posture and willingness to intervene in FX markets. While the central bank’s dovish bias remains clear, the sudden cancellation of the US-Iran peace summit in Switzerland has abruptly halted Swissy’s downside.
- The SNB’s explicit threat of returning to negative rates if disinflation overshoots acts as a firm medium-term ceiling for Swissy, yet spot support at 0.8000 remains structurally intact.
- Risk sentiment is highly fragile into the NY open with the VIX up at 18.44; further Middle East escalation risks squeezing the market’s moderate CHF net-short position of -36,665 contracts.
Bias into NY: We favor a downward drift in USD/CHF toward 0.7950, as intensifying geopolitical risk flows comfortably bypass the SNB’s underlying dovish posture ahead of the US 08:30 ET data print.