Snapshot: The Kiwi languishes near $0.573, weighed down by an intact RBNZ easing bias after Q1 GDP missed the central bank’s 1.0% forecast at 0.8%. This domestic growth slowdown cements expectations of further cuts below the current 3.50% cash rate, a drag now compounded by rising US real yields and a spike in the VIX to 18.44.
- Downside target at $0.5700: The Q1 GDP undershoot and the RBNZ’s clear easing bias suggest any rallies back toward $0.5800 will face heavy selling interest, keeping the path of least resistance firmly down.
- US Real Yield Headwind: Watch the NY session open and incoming US data, as a further push in US 10-year real yields above 2.23% will accelerate Kiwi downside toward the $0.5680 multi-month lows.
Bias into NY: We are bearish Kiwi into the NY open, targeting a break below $0.5730 toward $0.5700 as RBNZ rate-cut expectations anchor local yields against a firmer US dollar backdrop.