Snapshot: Crude oil has plunged below $75 per barrel to multi-month lows, driven by the landmark US-Iran interim agreement that is rapidly reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This massive supply normalization completely overshadows yesterday’s FOMC policy update, shifting immediate focus to the 08:30 ET Philly Fed and jobless claims data for domestic demand cues.
- Physical tight spots like Cushing inventories falling to 20 million barrels are being ignored as CFTC data shows speculators actively cutting net longs by 25,573 contracts, signaling a shift in positioning momentum.
- The primary risk for the NY session is a clean break below $74.20 if US manufacturing data underperforms, which would accelerate speculative liquidations.
Bias into NY: We favor selling rallies with a target of $73.80 as Iranian supply return expectations dominate, though a softer US Dollar Index at 119.5073 and falling real yields may cushion the absolute floor.