Snapshot: The Aussie is holding firm above 0.7000, insulated by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s reluctance to pivot toward rate cuts while domestic services inflation remains uneven. Governor Bullock’s hawkish stance keeps the 4.10% cash rate anchored, offset only on the margins by a firmer US dollar following Kevin Warsh’s debut shift away from Fed forward guidance. Today’s session will test this resilience via the US Philly Fed and claims data at 08:30 ET.
- The 0.7000 level remains structural pivot support, reinforced by domestic pricing of a 50% chance for one final RBA hike, which offsets pressure from crude’s slide to $84.65.
- US weekly jobless claims at 08:30 ET (forecast 225K) present immediate volatility risk, where any labor market strength could squeeze moderate spec long positioning.
Bias into NY: We favor a grinding bid toward 0.7050, driven by the RBA’s restrictive 4.10% yield anchor that continues to out-hawk G10 peers, provided US data does not deliver a major hawkish surprise.