Snapshot: The Aussie is holding above the $0.7000 handle as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish reluctance to cut rates offsets broader global headwinds. Despite the Federal Reserve’s hawkish hold under Kevin Warsh, Governor Bullock’s uneven inflation warnings keep a final RBA rate hike on the table, supporting the currency ahead of today’s US macro data.
- RBA Policy Divergence: The RBA maintains its cash rate at 4.10% with a persistent hawkish bias, as a tight domestic labour market and sticky services inflation keep a near-term cut off the table until we get a soft Q1 trimmed-mean CPI print.
- US Macro Spark: The US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and weekly Unemployment Claims, both printing at 08:30 ET, present immediate event risk that could shake US yields and test the currency’s resilience.
Bias into NY: We are buyers on dips above $0.7000, targeting $0.7040. The RBA’s stubborn refusal to join the global easing cycle provides structural support, which should limit downside even if the 08:30 ET US data prints on the stronger side.