Snapshot: WTI crude has collapsed below $75/bbl, hitting early March lows, as supply anxiety evaporates following an interim US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This massive geopolitical shift, which unlocks millions of barrels of sidelined Gulf capacity, completely overrides the policy fallout from yesterday’s FOMC projections. Today’s Philly Fed and Unemployment Claims data at 08:30 ET will provide the next demand-side cues for the NY session.
- Physical market indicators show Saudi tankers and LNG vessels are already leaving the Gulf, though immediate downside remains cushioned by critically tight Cushing inventories sitting near 20 million barrels.
- Speculative positioning is only modestly long at the 52nd percentile, but a risk-off surge in the VIX—up 12.3% to 18.44—could trigger rapid long liquidation if today’s US manufacturing data disappoints.
Bias into NY: We are tactically bearish, targeting a run toward $73.20/bbl as physical supply returns to the market, with any subsequent dollar strength acting as a secondary headwind.