Snapshot: EUR/JPY is hovering near 168.40, down 0.15% on the session, as the ECB’s mild easing bias conflicts with the BoJ’s slow policy normalisation. Overnight remarks from BoJ Deputy Governor Himino reinforced the case for another rate hike this year following strong shunto wage growth, while ECB speakers Elderson and Cipollone did little to alter the current meeting-by-meeting cutting path. This policy contrast is being tested by a spike in risk aversion, with the VIX climbing to 18.44 and WTI crude sliding over 4.4%.
- Support at 168.00 remains crucial; a sustained break below this level opens up the 167.20 zone if Eurozone yields continue to soften following the ECB’s 25bp April cut to 2.50%.
- Watch the upcoming US 08:30 NY data release, where a strong print could lift the pair via US treasury yields, though safe-haven flows to the Yen present a persistent headwind.
Bias into NY: We hold a bearish bias toward 167.80, as the ECB’s softening wage trackers limit Euro upside while the BoJ’s rate hike bias keeps a floor under the Yen. This downward pressure is amplified by the defensive market tone and falling energy prices.