Snapshot: Brent has dipped below the $80 threshold, trading near $79.70 to lock in an 8.5% weekly loss as geopolitical supply premiums evaporate. While nearly 10 million barrels transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday—including the first Saudi tankers in three months—momentum has stalled today following the postponement of diplomatic talks in Switzerland.
- Technical Signal: Major physical support sits at $78.50; a clean break here opens a quick path to the mid-70s as paper markets capitulate on OPEC’s aggressive demand projections.
- NY Session Watch: Watch for any resumption of outbound Persian Gulf tanker flows after zero departures this morning, a headline risk that could align with broader risk-off positioning as the VIX sits elevated at 18.44.
Bias into NY: We are tactically bearish into the NY open, looking to sell intraday bounces toward $80.50 with a target of $78.50. This downside bias is supported by rising global real yields, with the US 10-year TIPS up 9bp to 2.23%.