Snapshot: EUR/JPY maintains a firm bid today, boosted by this morning’s ECB wage data which showed negotiated wage pressures remaining stable into 2026. This domestic release dampens market expectations for aggressive back-to-back policy easing, with trading desks now shifting focus directly to ECB President Lagarde’s address for further policy validation.
- The 08:00 ECB wage tracker release confirms stable negotiated wage pressures, strengthening the hawkish argument to keep the deposit facility rate steady at 2.50% and reinforcing our view that the June easing cycle will remain a gradual, meeting-by-meeting affair.
- MoF and BoJ communication risk remains exceptionally high for the upcoming session, as persistent Yen weakness past prior intervention zones increases the likelihood of sudden verbal or physical policy defense from Tokyo.
Bias into NY: We hold a bullish bias on EUR/JPY toward the 171.00 level, driven by the widening monetary policy divergence between a patient ECB and a slow-moving BoJ, with WTI crude trading at $95/bbl adding secondary structural pressure on the energy-importing Yen.