Snapshot: Brent crude trades below $79 per barrel, hovering at multi-month lows as physical supply risks collapse ahead of an expected US-Iran interim deal this Friday. This potential agreement threatens to immediately release over 100 oil-laden tankers from the Gulf, completely overshadowing an 8.3 million-barrel US industry inventory draw. Today’s session is further clouded by the IEA slashing its demand forecast, warning of a looming global oil surplus.
- Technical Support: The early March low near $78.20 is the critical line in the sand; a clean break exposes the $75.00 handle as physical barrels prepare to flood the market.
- Session Catalyst: Keep a close eye on the 14:00 ET FOMC rate decision and economic projections, where any hawkish stance from the Fed could trigger broader risk-off flows and exacerbate the crude liquidation.
Bias into NY: We hold a strong bearish bias targeting $78.00, as the structural shift toward physical supply expansion and IEA demand downgrades caps any near-term rallies, even if a softer US dollar post-FOMC offers brief support.