Where we are: Nasdaq 100 futures are ticking higher ahead of the New York open, recovering from yesterday’s minor slip where tech lagged the record-setting Dow. The index is finding steady intraday support as we grind upward, looking to reclaim the post-correction highs. Overnight trade was dominated by a sector-specific bid in AI infrastructure, with premarket gainers AMD and Marvell up over 2%, and Intel jumping 3% on its new chip reaching risk production. This keeps the index structurally constructive, trading comfortably above yesterday’s cash lows as the desk prepares for a highly active session.
What’s driving it: Today’s price action is entirely dictated by the looming US macro double-header, with tech valuations highly sensitive to the US 10-year yield consolidating at 4.47% and real yields (TIPS) drifting down to 2.15%. This softening in real rates provides a substantial valuation tailwind for long-duration secular growth. Additional support comes from the broader commodity space where WTI crude trades at $95, but the threat of energy-driven inflation is easing as the US and Iran progress toward an agreement to restore Persian Gulf energy exports by Friday. This macro backdrop keeps tech well-bid, transmitting any positive global semiconductor demand signals directly into index upside.
- The US Federal Reserve is expected to keep the funds rate unchanged at 3.75% at 14:00 ET, but the updated Summary of Economic Projections will determine if the 2s10s spread, currently at 0.38%, steepens further.
- Global semiconductor momentum is accelerating, confirmed overnight by Japan’s May exports growing at their fastest pace in over three years on the back of soaring chip demand.
- Speculative positioning on the Nasdaq is exceptionally clean, with net non-commercial contracts sitting at a crowded short position in the 10th percentile of the 52-week range (-1,349 contracts), setting up extreme asymmetric squeeze risk.
NY session focus: The early macro pulse arrives with Core Retail Sales at 08:30 ET, expected to print at 0.6%, followed by President Trump speaking at 09:30 ET. However, the true tactical layout hinges on Chairman Warsh’s press conference at 14:30 ET, where any dovish pivot or pushback against balance sheet reduction will act as a major catalyst. Long positions established on the morning dip remain the preferred trade, while running tactical shorts ahead of the FOMC looks highly dangerous. The absolute pain trade for this session is a dovish dot plot that triggers a violent, short-covering stampede back toward all-time highs.