Category: NDX

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Saturday, 25 April

    Today’s market themes:

    • Iran talks: Shifting expectations for US-Iran negotiations drives swings in oil and risk sentiment.
    • Dollar weakness: Broad USD selling pressure continues, impacting FX crosses and commodity prices.
    • Tech rebound: Nasdaq leading equities higher, fueled by a rotation back into growth and mega-cap stocks.

    The setup: Equities are bid into the NY open on hopes for Iran deal progress, weighing on crude and USD. Look for pullbacks in oil to be bought if Trump’s stance softens, and USD dip-buying at 98.15 DXY. US 10Y at 4.302% offers resistance.

    Watch list (London time):

    • 17:00 USD: President Trump Speaks (Medium)
    • No other scheduled events
    • No Central Bank Speakers

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY: Down – Iran talks pressure, target 98.00.
    • EUR: Up – Weak USD, US-DE 10Y spread +131bp supports.
    • GBP: Up – Sentiment improved, US-UK 10Y spread -61bp.
    • JPY: Down – Risk-on flows overshadow US-JP 10Y +187bp.
    • CAD: Up – Weaker USD and oil price sensitivity at 1.3650.
    • AUD: Up – Risk appetite lifts, eyeing 0.7200.
    • NZD: Up – Dollar weakness main driver, 0.5900 target.
    • CHF: Down – Risk-on offsets safe-haven demand; watch 0.7800.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY: Mixed – Play risk sentiment and individual drivers.
    • XAU (Gold): Up – Real yields falling, target 4775.
    • XAG (Silver): Up – Following Gold, watch Gold/Silver ratio.
    • WTI / Brent: Down – Iran talk hopes weighing, choppy around $94/$105.
    • Copper: Neutral – Modest China demand concerns; hold 600.
    • SPX: Up – Risk-on, 7250 potential on break of 7200.
    • NDX: Up – Rates ease, mega-caps lead, new highs possible.
    • US30: Neutral – Lagging tech, focus on economic data later in the week.
    • UK100: Down – Underperforming EU peers, still heavy tone.
    • DAX: Neutral – Holding steady, weak tech hampering.
    • Nikkei: Up – Catching up to US tech move, watch 60000.
    • BTC: Neutral – Consolidation near highs, risk-on/off correlation still relevant.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded longs in USD, AUD, Copper, and Bitcoin, and crowded shorts in JPY and NZD — any hawkish comments from the Fed or negative trade news could trigger violent short squeezes in JPY/NZD.

    The pain trade: A complete breakdown of US-Iran talks and renewed Hormuz tensions would spike oil, send the dollar higher, and crush risk assets.

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures Lead Risk Rally into NY Open – Saturday, 25 April

    Where we are: Nasdaq futures are trading at 27435.00, up 1.64% on the day, printing a high of 27462.50. The cash Nasdaq 100 closed yesterday at 24836.60. This rally puts us well above yesterday’s cash close, suggesting a strong open for the New York session. Intraday, futures have held a relatively tight range of roughly 500 points.

    What’s driving it: Risk sentiment is clearly the dominant force, fueled by optimism surrounding potential US-Iran peace talks and the ceasefire extension between Israel and Lebanon. This is translating directly into a weaker dollar, with the DXY currently at 98.36, down 0.31% and falling US Treasury yields – the 10-year is at 4.302%, down 2.6bp, with the 2-year seeing even more pronounced downside (-5.9bp) at 3.785% – all of which are supporting tech valuations. Speculator positioning in the Nasdaq 100 is modestly long, at the 4th percentile, which reduces the immediate risk of a significant long squeeze.

    • The US 2Y yield declining nearly 6bp suggests some repricing of near-term Fed expectations.
    • WTI crude is higher by nearly 6% (albeit on stale data), suggesting inflation expectations could be firming, though breakevens are little changed, for now.
    • While European equities are mostly in the red, the Nasdaq is diverging massively, with the DAX off 0.37% while Nasdaq futures are up over 1.6%. This discrepancy hints at a potential catch-up trade in Europe later in the day, or a possible reversal in the US.

    NY session focus: With no major economic data releases scheduled ahead of the New York open, attention will be squarely on President Trump’s speech at 17:00 London time. Watch for any remarks related to geopolitical developments or economic policy that could impact risk sentiment. Key levels to watch are 27500 as resistance and 27000 as initial support for the Nasdaq futures. The short dollar / long Nasdaq trade is currently working, but be wary of a hawkish surprise from Trump, which could trigger a sharp reversal. The pain trade would be a sudden escalation in Middle East tensions driving a flight to safety into the dollar and out of tech.