Category: NDX

  • Nasdaq 100 Tightrope Walk Continues – Monday, 11 May

    Where we are: Nasdaq futures are currently trading at 29271.00, down 0.12% on the day, trading within a relatively narrow range of 29227.50 to 29399.25. This is just shy of Friday’s cash close of 26247.08, highlighting the persistent premium in futures. Despite the minor pullback, the index remains near record highs reached last session, with bulls eyeing 30,000 if the AI rally resumes its earlier momentum.

    What’s driving it: A mixed picture is developing, with rising real yields acting as a headwind to tech valuations even as optimism around AI investment persists. US 10-year real yields have climbed to 1.96%, a 2bp rise on Friday. This increase, reflecting expectations of sustained economic growth and tighter monetary policy, puts pressure on high-growth tech stocks. The impact is somewhat offset by the continued focus on AI plays, as demonstrated by Pictet Fund’s allocation of 30% of its cash into AI stocks, and a solid tech earnings season, highlighted by Dan Ives predicting Nasdaq 30,000 as AI rally expands.

    • US 10Y real yields at 1.96% offer less support to high-multiple tech names
    • Pictet Fund’s 30% allocation to AI stocks signals continued conviction
    • Net non-commercial positioning remains modestly long, but only at the 2th percentile of the 52-week range, leaving room for more accumulation on dips.

    NY session focus: Traders will be closely watching the response to any further weakness in AI Hyperscalers and chip producers, after pre-market softness on Monday. Focus will remain on bond yields, especially real rates, to see if the current upward trend continues. A break below 29227.50 in the futures could trigger a test of lower levels. On the upside, a push above 29400 targets a run at 29500. The main event today will be navigating any risk-off headlines regarding energy price spikes or comments on the Iran situation. The pain trade remains a deeper correction in high-multiple tech, particularly if real yields continue to rise.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Friday, 8 May

    Regime: Risk-on, as equity futures surge on hopes of softer US payrolls and bond yields drift lower (US 10Y at 4.357%).

    Today’s market themes:

    • US Payrolls showdown: markets bracing for a potential dovish surprise amid a crowded USD long positioning.
    • Iran tensions: Oil prices remain volatile amid geopolitical instability and supply concerns.
    • Central Bank Divergence: Focus on Lagarde and Bailey speeches while watching BoJ comments regarding JPY.

    The setup: The market is pricing in a weaker-than-expected US jobs report, fueling a rally in risk assets. The crowded USD long position leaves room for a significant squeeze if the data disappoints. Watch US 10Y yield response to payrolls and the DXY level around 97.77.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET USD: Non-Farm Employment Change (forecast 65K, prior 178K)
    • 08:30 ET CAD: Employment Change (forecast 12.9K, prior 14.1K)
    • 13:20 London GBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Fed policy outlook dependent on US data, especially labor market.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment dependent on USD strength, FX cross flows.
      • Levels: Support at 97.50, resistance at 98.20.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (EU): ECB’s rhetoric, core inflation and German Bund yields.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, US-DE 10Y spread favoring EUR, positive risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 1.1700, resistance at 1.1800.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (UK): BoE policy guidance, Gilt yields, services CPI.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, US-UK 10Y spread, risk on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3550, resistance at 1.3650.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ policy, JGB yield curve control, intervention threat.
      • Cross: US 10Y yields, DXY direction, risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 156.00, resistance at 157.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (CA): BoC policy, Employment change data and WTI correlation.
      • Cross: DXY direction, US-CA 10Y yield spread.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3600, resistance at 1.3700.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, US-AU 10Y spread, China growth outlook.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7200, resistance at 0.7250.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (NZ): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, US-NZ 10Y spread, risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 0.5900, resistance at 0.5975.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB stance and Swiss yield curve.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, safe-haven demand.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7750, resistance at 0.7810.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral, EUR/JPY: Bullish, GBP/JPY: Bullish.
      • Domestic: Relative CB policy, relative yield spreads drive direction.
      • Cross: DXY, risk regime, cross-of-crosses dynamics.
      • Levels: Watch key technical levels, sensitive to GBP and JPY crosses.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields trending lower, rising breakevens, central bank demand.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 4700, resistance at 4750.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand expectations, gold-silver ratio.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 8100, resistance at 8200.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Mixed.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Iran tensions, EIA inventory data, OPEC output levels.
      • Cross: DXY, risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Watch inventory reports, supply disruptions.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Positive China growth outlook, LME stocks, supply issues.
      • Cross: DXY, global growth.
      • Levels: Support at 625, resistance at 635.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Earnings season, Fed policy outlook, US yield reaction.
      • Cross: VIX suppression, global sentiment.
      • Levels: Futures resistance at 7420, cash support 7330.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap tech earnings, real yields and AI investments.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity, low VIX environment.
      • Levels: Support at 28800, resistance at 29000.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Industrial earnings, cyclical sentiment.
      • Cross: Bond yields response.
      • Levels: Support at 49500, resistance at 50000.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Global risk, and US macro performance.
      • Levels: Support at 22800, resistance at 22950.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (DE): German Bund yields and broader Eurozone sentiment.
      • Cross: US Tech, DXY, risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 24400, resistance at 24550.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY strength sensitivity, JGB yields, BoJ policy.
      • Cross: US tech, global risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 62500, resistance at 62800.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF inflows, on-chain activity, funding rate.
      • Cross: DXY direction, risk sentiment, and Nasdaq correlation.
      • Levels: Support at $79,000, resistance at $80,500.

    Positioning watch: USD, AUD and BTC are crowded longs, S&P, Nasdaq, GBP, JPY and NZD are crowded shorts. A strong payrolls number will amplify the USD short squeeze while a weak number risks a violent short squeeze in GBP, JPY and Nasdaq.

    The pain trade: A strong US jobs report would trigger a massive USD rally, crush risk assets, and inflict maximum pain on the crowded short positions in GBP, JPY and tech stocks.

  • Nasdaq Futures Surge on Tech Optimism – Friday, 8 May

    Where we are: Nasdaq futures are currently trading at 28950.25, up 1.38% and near the day’s high of 28975.25. This represents a substantial recovery from the cash market close of 25806.20 and suggests a strong open for the New York session. The overnight range has been relatively contained, indicating consolidated bullish sentiment ahead of key US data.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver is renewed optimism surrounding the tech sector, spurred by strong earnings prospects and the perception of value after a robust earnings season. This positive sentiment is amplified by lower US yields, with the 10-year yield at 4.357%, reflecting a slight easing of monetary policy concerns. Despite this, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has edged up to 2.45%, suggesting that inflation expectations remain somewhat anchored.

    • CNBC World reported that analysts believe tech stocks offer their best value in years.
    • The US 10-year yield has dipped to 4.357%, down 3.0 bps on the day.
    • CFTC data reveals a crowded short positioning in Nasdaq 100 futures, with net non-commercial contracts at -2,322, near the 0th percentile, creating a potential squeeze risk.

    NY session focus: All eyes are on the 08:30 ET releases of Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Employment Change, which will heavily influence market sentiment. A weaker-than-expected jobs report could further fuel the rally, while stronger data might temper gains. Key levels to watch are 29,000 as immediate resistance and 28,500 as support. The trade that’s working is long tech on the dip, but the trade at risk is shorting Nasdaq given the crowded positioning and potential for a squeeze. The pain trade would be a hawkish surprise, leading to a rapid reversal and short covering.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Thursday, 7 May

    Regime: Mixed, with VIX holding steady at 17.38 and US yields slightly lower, suggesting a cautious risk-on sentiment tempered by geopolitical tensions.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Mideast Peace Potential: Easing oil supply concerns dominate, pressuring crude and boosting risk assets.
    • Dollar Weakness: DXY continues its descent, supporting EUR, GBP, AUD, and gold.
    • Earnings Rotation: Focus shifts to industrial and financial earnings in the US after tech-led rally.

    The setup: Markets are pricing in a higher probability of a Middle East peace deal, driving WTI down nearly 6% to $90.21. This is providing a tailwind for risk assets, especially equities. However, crowded positioning in USD and Aussie could trigger a squeeze on any hawkish surprises. Watch US Unemployment Claims at 08:30 ET.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET USD: Unemployment Claims (forecast 205K, prior 189K)
    • 10:00 ET USD: Factory Orders (prior 0.8%)
    • 14:00 BST GBP: BoE’s Breeden speaks on Inflation

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): Fed likely to remain cautious; watch claims data.
      • Cross: Risk-on sentiment weighing; EUR and GBP strength.
      • Levels: Resistance at 97.90, support at 97.65.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (EU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, positive risk sentiment, US-DE 10Y widening.
      • Levels: Support at 1.1740, resistance at 1.1800.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, boosted by positive risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3590, resistance at 1.3650.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US 10Y stable, risk-on environment, intervention risk high.
      • Levels: Support at 156.00, resistance at 156.50.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (CA): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: WTI weakness, DXY direction, US-CA 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3620, resistance at 1.3650.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, China growth optimism.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7230, resistance at 0.7270.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (NZ): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, positive risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 0.5950, resistance at 0.5990.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, safe-haven outflows into risk-on.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7770, resistance at 0.7800.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP neutral, EUR/JPY up, GBP/JPY up
      • Domestic: Relative hawkishness of BoE priced in; BoJ dovish.
      • Cross: Risk-on favoring JPY crosses; DXY impact on EUR/GBP.
      • Levels: Monitor ranges, relative yield direction key.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising as breakevens rise; CB demand supportive.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, safe haven demand diminishing.
      • Levels: Support at 4700, resistance at 4765.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand supportive.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, positive risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 8000, resistance at 8250.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Peace deal/higher supply.
      • Cross: DXY strength would add to move lower; risk aversion would add to move lower.
      • Levels: Support at 90.00, resistance at 96.00.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China rebound expectations/LME-stock
      • Cross: Global growth proxy; Dollar strength a headwind
      • Levels: Support at 615, resistance at 625
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Earnings momentum; rates stabilize.
      • Cross: Positive global tone, VIX suppression.
      • Levels: Futures support at 7380, resistance at 7410, cash support 7300.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap tech earnings supportive/ AI narrative.
      • Cross: Lower rates sensitivity, high beta.
      • Levels: Resistance at 28800, support 28600.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Rebound in industrial earnings; cyclical shift.
      • Cross: Responding positively to bond-yield relief.
      • Levels: Resistance near 50200, support at 49900.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Global risk, benefiting from oil decline.
      • Levels: Support at 22800, resistance at 23000.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields stable; weak economic data.
      • Cross: Watching US tech strength; risk-on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 24850, resistance at 25000.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness driving earnings.
      • Cross: Catching up with US tech performance; risk-on buying.
      • Levels: Support at 62000, resistance at 63000.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flow-dependent, funding elevated.
      • Cross: risk-regime, positive overall, high correlation to tech.
      • Levels: Support at 80500, resistance at 81700.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded longs in AUD, Copper, and Bitcoin (>90th percentile) and crowded shorts in JPY, GBP, and Nasdaq (

    The pain trade: A hawkish surprise from the US Unemployment Claims, triggering a USD rally and sending risk assets lower, would hurt the most positions.

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures Rally to New Highs – Thursday, 7 May

    Where we are: Nasdaq futures are currently trading at 28755.25, up 0.33% on the day and near the session high of 28813.75. The overnight range has been relatively contained, but the move higher extends yesterday’s gains. Cash NDX closed last night at 25838.94, so futures are implying a significantly higher open today.

    What’s driving it: Risk sentiment remains broadly positive, fueled by expectations of a resolution to the Iran-US conflict and a potential boost to energy supplies, easing inflationary pressures. The US 10-year yield is down 2.8bps to 4.316%, while the 2-year yield is down a more substantial 4bps to 3.834%, suggesting a flattening of the curve, which is typically supportive for risk assets. However, rising real yields, now at 1.96%, present a potential headwind to gold and, by extension, a subtle caution flag for the broader risk rally.

    • Unemployment Claims data at 08:30 ET is the key domestic event today. The forecast of 205K vs. the previous 189K could temper the rally if it comes in higher than expected.
    • Speculator positioning in the Nasdaq 100 is heavily short, with net non-commercial positions at -2,322 contracts, putting it in the 0th percentile over the last 52 weeks. This creates a considerable short-squeeze risk if the rally persists.
    • The DAX is flat in European trading, while the FTSE is up 0.61%, pointing to a somewhat mixed picture outside of the US, suggesting this rally is quite domestic-centric.

    NY session focus: All eyes are on the 08:30 ET Unemployment Claims data – a weaker print could trigger a substantial short squeeze in Nasdaq futures, potentially pushing through resistance at 28850 and targeting 29000. Conversely, a strong print could lead to a retest of the 28600 level. Keep an eye on the DXY, currently at 97.69, for further weakness as it can act as an accelerant. The trade to watch remains dip-buying in tech, but a hawkish surprise from Claims data could quickly unwind this, especially given the crowded short positioning. The pain trade would be a surprisingly strong jobs number that forces the market to reprice Fed rate hike expectations.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Wednesday, 6 May

    Regime: Risk-on, fuelled by falling US yields and hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East; VIX is elevated but failing to hold gains.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Geopolitical relief rally: Equities and gold gain on reports of a potential US-Iran deal, sending oil sharply lower.
    • Dovish ECB spillovers: European yields are sharply lower after ECB commentary and stable wage data, supporting European equities.
    • Crowded short squeeze: Risk assets supported by potential short squeeze with CFTC data showing traders are heavily short JPY and Nasdaq.

    The setup: Oil’s sharp decline is the key driver today, prompting a rotation into risk assets, and supporting gold. The trade is to fade the rally in gold as real yields remain positive. Key risk is a breakdown in the US-Iran deal, which would send oil prices sharply higher again and reverse the risk-on tone.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:15 ET USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (118K vs 62K)
    • 10:00 ET CAD: Ivey PMI (49.9 vs 49.7)
    • 16:15 ET CAD: BOC Gov Macklem Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): US data will be crucial in determining the next direction.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment and falling US yields are weighing.
      • Levels: Support at 97.50, resistance at 98.00.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (EU): Lower Bund yields are supporting as ECB turns dovish.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY and positive risk sentiment are supportive.
      • Levels: Support at 1.1700, resistance at 1.1800.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness and risk appetite are key drivers.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3550, resistance at 1.3650.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (JP): Intervention risk remains, limiting JPY weakness.
      • Cross: Falling US 10Y yields and a weaker DXY are pressuring.
      • Levels: Support at 155.00, resistance at 157.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (CA): BoC speakers watch to see if rate cuts are coming.
      • Cross: USD weakness offset by lower WTI, US-CA 10Y stable.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3580, resistance at 1.3650.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Copper price rise and DXY weakness, China growth hopes aiding.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7200, resistance at 0.7280.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ speakers in focus, impact on kiwi to be assessed.
      • Cross: DXY weakness and risk-on, limited by US yield impact.
      • Levels: Support at 0.5900, resistance at 0.6000.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness and haven demand waning.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7770, resistance at 0.7830.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): Mixed
      • Domestic: Relative CB divergence is a driver today.
      • Cross: EUR/GBP ranges. JPY shorts are exposed.
      • Levels: Monitor key levels from overnight session.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Hopes for de-escalation are driving.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY, fading risk-off, positive momentum.
      • Levels: Support at 4650, resistance at 4700.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Follows Gold’s trend, industrial demand boost.
      • Levels: Support at 7600, resistance at 7800.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Deal chatter is main driver.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY isn’t sufficient to lift with Iran headlines.
      • Levels: Support at 90, resistance at 100.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Aided by optimism.
      • Levels: Support at 610, resistance at 620.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Boosted sentiment supports outlook.
      • Cross: VIX regime shift, global risk-on fueling.
      • Levels: Futures 7300, cash support at 7250, resistance at 7350.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap resilience and lower rates helpful.
      • Cross: Rate sensitivity supporting.
      • Levels: Monitor intraday resistance and support levels.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Broader market lift aids cyclicals.
      • Cross: Lower yields benefit outlook.
      • Levels: Monitor intraday resistance and support levels.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Riding the positive global wave, GBP drag offset.
      • Levels: Monitor intraday resistance and support levels.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (DE): Lower Bund yields, EU tone aiding DAX.
      • Cross: Taking cues from US tech.
      • Levels: Monitor intraday resistance and support levels.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness and earnings are important.
      • Cross: Risk tone and US tech performance play a key role.
      • Levels: Monitor intraday resistance and support levels.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flow stable, and funding rate stable.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 81000, resistance at 83000.

    Positioning watch: JPY is the most crowded short (0th percentile) and Aussie is most crowded long (96th percentile), per CFTC. A dovish surprise from the Fed or a hawkish BoJ shift could trigger a significant squeeze in JPY.

    The pain trade: A surprisingly strong ADP print would reignite inflation concerns and send yields higher, triggering a sharp reversal of today’s risk-on move and hurting gold longs.

  • Nasdaq 100 Aims for New Highs on AI Optimism – Wednesday, 6 May

    Where we are: Nasdaq futures currently trade at 28443.25, up 0.66% on the day, consolidating the overnight gains. The intraday range spans from 28248.25 to 28632.75, hinting at potential for further upside. The cash Nasdaq 100 closed yesterday at 25326.13 and has yet to fully catch up with the future’s optimism.

    What’s driving it: The rally in Nasdaq 100 futures is being fueled by a confluence of factors, primarily centered around optimism concerning potential breakthroughs in the Iran conflict and surging AI-related earnings. While real yields are up 4bp, that has been overshadowed by the prospect of cheaper oil and renewed earnings optimism. We need to keep an eye on how the 10Y responds as it has been more sensitive to the latest geopolitical news.

    • The surge in AMD (+20%) and Super Micro Computer (+15%) following strong earnings and forward guidance is boosting the entire AI infrastructure space, with Nvidia, Sandisk, Micron, and Intel also seeing gains.
    • Geopolitical developments surrounding a potential agreement with Iran are easing concerns about energy prices, contributing to a broader risk-on sentiment.
    • Speculator positioning in the Nasdaq 100 is crowded short (-2,322 contracts), making the index vulnerable to a squeeze if positive momentum continues.

    NY session focus: The key event for today will be the 08:15 ET release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. A print significantly above the 118K forecast could put pressure on the rally, prompting a reassessment of Fed policy expectations. Watch for the Nasdaq futures to test the intraday high of 28632.75; a break above could open the way to fresh record highs. Support lies around 28250. The long Nasdaq/short Russell trade continues to work, but be wary of a reversal if broader market participation returns. The pain trade is a hawkish surprise from today’s ADP print, catching the short-covering rally off guard.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Tuesday, 5 May

    Regime: Risk-on, as S&P 500 futures test overnight highs and the VIX remains subdued below 17 despite geopolitical headlines and upcoming data.

    Today’s market themes:

    • RBA Rate Hike: Market anticipating an aggressive RBA hike, driving AUD strength and potential impact across Asia-Pac FX.
    • ISM Services & JOLTS: US economic data to set the tone for the NY session and further solidify Fed policy expectations.
    • Middle East Tensions: Geopolitical risks simmer, with eyes on oil supply disruptions and associated impact on risk sentiment.

    The setup: Focus remains on the RBA rate decision, with expectations leaning towards a 25bp hike to 4.35%. A larger hike or hawkish statement could further boost AUD, while a dovish surprise could lead to a sharp reversal. S&P 500 futures at 7261.75 need to hold to confirm risk-on, failure here triggers sell pressure. Watch US 10Y near 4.42% as a key sentiment indicator.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 14:30 AEST AUD: Cash Rate (forecast 4.35%, prior 4.10%)
    • 10:00 ET USD: ISM Services PMI (forecast 53.7, prior 54.0)
    • 10:45 NZT NZD: Employment Change q/q (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.5%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral to slightly bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Fed’s data dependence / US data strength / US yields.
      • Cross: Global growth concerns / risk aversion / EUR weakness.
      • Levels: Support 97.80, Resistance 98.50.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Neutral to bearish.
      • Domestic (EU): ECB policy divergence / moderate Eurozone HICP/ peripheral spreads
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-DE 10Y widening / risk-off flows.
      • Levels: Support 1.1670, Resistance 1.1700.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): BoE’s caution / UK CPI near target / Gilt yields steady.
      • Cross: DXY influence / US-UK 10Y / risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support 1.3500, Resistance 1.3575.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ ultra-dovish stance / JGB yields capped / verbal intervention risk.
      • Cross: US 10Y strength / DXY strength / risk-on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 157.00, Resistance 158.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (CA): BoC holding steady / CPI near target / WTI price action.
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-CA 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.3600, Resistance 1.3650.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bullish (pre-RBA), then volatile.
      • Domestic (AU): RBA decision / Inflation dynamics / Australia-China relations.
      • Cross: DXY impact / US-AU 10Y / risk.
      • Levels: Support 0.7150, Resistance 0.7200.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Neutral to bearish.
      • Domestic (NZ): Employment data / RBNZ caution / New Zealand-China trade.
      • Cross: DXY / US-NZ 10Y / risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 0.5850, Resistance 0.5900.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB policy / Swiss inflation / economic outlook.
      • Cross: DXY direction / safe-haven flows / Europe.
      • Levels: Support 0.7800, Resistance 0.7850.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): Depends on relative CB stance + yields.
      • Domestic: Relative monetary policies and yield differentials are dominant.
      • Cross: DXY / risk sentiment / potential cross-currency feedback loops.
      • Levels: Monitor key technical levels for each cross.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields falling / breakeven inflation firming / CB demand.
      • Cross: DXY weakness / risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 4520, Resistance 4585.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Strong industrial demand / inflation hedge narrative.
      • Cross: DXY weakness / risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support 7280, Resistance 7450.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): EIA stock data / OPEC supply policy / refining activity.
      • Cross: DXY direction / geopolitical risk premium.
      • Levels: WTI support 102.50, resistance 105.50.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China stimulus / LME inventory depletion / supply disruption.
      • Cross: Global growth proxy / DXY.
      • Levels: Support 585, Resistance 600.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Neutral to bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Earnings season / Fed policy / US economic data.
      • Cross: VIX regime / global macro backdrop / US 10Y.
      • Levels: Futures support 7220, resistance 7270; cash S&P support 7170 and 7240.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap tech performance / AI enthusiasm / rising rates-priced-in.
      • Cross: Rate sensitivity / VIX level.
      • Levels: Support at 27730, Resistance at 28000.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): industrial sector earnings / cyclical names / banks.
      • Cross: Bond-yield impact / recession fears.
      • Levels: Support 49050, Resistance 49300.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling strength / Commodity prices (energy).
      • Cross: Global Risk Appetite.
      • Levels: Support 22420, Resistance 22600.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (DE): Eurozone recovery / German data / Bund yields.
      • Cross: US Tech Momentum / DXY / Risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support 23990, Resistance 24400.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness benefit / earnings performance.
      • Cross: US tech sentiment / risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support 59250, Resistance 59700.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral to bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flows / on-chain activity / regulations.
      • Cross: DXY influence / risk sentiment / Nasdaq correlation.
      • Levels: Support 79750, Resistance 81300.

    Positioning watch: The Yen and Nasdaq remain crowded shorts (squeeze on positive surprise), while AUD, Copper, and Bitcoin are crowded longs (squeeze on disappointment). CFTC data shows extreme positioning, making these assets vulnerable to outsized moves on data releases.

    The pain trade: A hawkish surprise from the RBA, combined with a soft US ISM, would trigger a sharp AUD rally while simultaneously pressuring USD shorts, creating a significant “double squeeze” scenario.

  • Nasdaq 100 Faces Resistance at 28,000 Amid Mixed Signals – Tuesday, 5 May

    Where we are: Nasdaq futures are trading at 27979.00, up 0.79% and near the session high of 28003.50. This follows a mixed cash session yesterday and a weaker close, although futures have gapped up overnight. Resistance is clearly forming around the 28,000 level, which has so far capped gains, while support comes in around 27730.

    What’s driving it: The near-term bounce in Nasdaq futures is being driven by a pullback in energy prices, providing some relief to inflation concerns. Despite a slight easing in the US 10Y yield to 4.422%, yesterday’s rise continues to cast a shadow, with inflation breakevens elevated. This rate environment, alongside strong earnings releases from key tech components, is creating a push-pull effect. The crowded short positioning in Nasdaq futures increases the risk of a squeeze on any positive data surprise. Furthermore, Intel’s potential Apple processor deal news adds to the positive sentiment, providing a catalyst beyond the broader macro picture.

    • Net non-commercial positioning in the Nasdaq 100 is at the 0th percentile, indicating a crowded short and significant squeeze potential.
    • 10Y Real Yields fell 3bps yesterday providing a tailwind to Gold, which could weigh on Nasdaq sentiment.
    • Europe’s tech-heavy DAX is outperforming, up 1.31%, suggesting some spillover effect into US tech sentiment.

    NY session focus: Today’s key event risk centers around the 10:00 ET releases of ISM Services PMI and JOLTS Job Openings, both high-impact releases that could dictate intraday direction. Watch for a break above 28,000, which could trigger further short covering, while a move below 27730 could see a retest of yesterday’s lows. The ISM service print matters here — the trade that’s working is shorting any rally above 28,000, anticipating that higher yields will eventually weigh on tech valuations. The pain trade for the Nasdaq 100 is a strong ISM print that pushes yields higher and simultaneously squeezes shorts.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Monday, 4 May

    Regime: Risk-off, with escalating Middle East tensions driving haven demand and weighing on equities; VIX at 16.89.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Geopolitical risk: Oil spike and risk-off sentiment due to heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
    • USD strength: Continued consolidation after recent gains, influenced by yield differentials and risk aversion.
    • ECB policy divergence: ECB hints at rate hikes clash with dovish undertones from BoJ and others.

    The setup: The spike in oil prices driven by Mideast tensions is fueling inflation fears and pressuring risk assets. Traders are pricing in a potential hawkish response from central banks, particularly the ECB, exacerbating the downside pressure on equities. Watch for further escalation in the Middle East, with a risk of a deeper equity sell-off if oil breaches $105 and 10Y yields rise further.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 15:30 ET CAD: BOC Gov Macklem Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral to bullish
      • Domestic (US): Fed on hold / Yield consolidation
      • Cross: Safe-haven flows / Global risk aversion
      • Levels: Support 118.50 / Resistance 119.00
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (EU): ECB rate hike expectation / slow growth
      • Cross: DXY strength / Risk-off flows
      • Levels: 1.1650 / 1.1750
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral to bearish
      • Domestic (UK): BoE cautious / Data dependent
      • Cross: DXY strength / risk aversion
      • Levels: 1.3550 / 1.3650
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish, but with intervention risk
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ dovish / Yield curve control
      • Cross: US 10Y strength / Risk-off buying USD
      • Levels: 157.00 / 158.00
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): BoC cautious / WTI boost limited
      • Cross: DXY strength / US growth advantage
      • Levels: 1.3650 / 1.3700
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (AU): RBA dovish / Rate cut odds rise
      • Cross: DXY strength / China weakness / Risk-off
      • Levels: 0.7150 / 0.7250
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ dovish stance continues
      • Cross: DXY strength / Risk aversion
      • Levels: 0.5850 / 0.5950
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB easing / Yield disadvantage
      • Cross: Safe-haven unwind / DXY strength
      • Levels: 0.7800 / 0.7850
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): Neutral, Neutral, Bullish
      • Domestic: Relative CB stance + yields
      • Cross: DXY / Risk / cross-of-crosses dynamics
      • Levels: 0.8500-0.8600 / 170.00-171.00 / 192.00-193.00
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields / Reduced haven demand
      • Cross: DXY strength / Risk-off waning
      • Levels: 4500 / 4550
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand lackluster
      • Cross: DXY strength / Risk-off waning
      • Levels: Lower toward 47
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Hormuz disruption / OPEC restraint
      • Cross: DXY influence / Risk regime
      • Levels: 100 / 105
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China stimulus needs affirmation
      • Cross: Global growth proxy / DXY
      • Levels: $5.00 / $5.10
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Earnings worries / Fed on hold / Rising yields
      • Cross: VIX spike / Geopolitical tension
      • Levels: 5100 / 5150
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Real yields / Mega-cap scrutiny
      • Cross: Rate sensitivity / VIX
      • Levels: 18250 / 18400
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical concerns / Bond sell-off
      • Cross: Bond-yield impact
      • Levels: 38500 / 39000
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling level / Gilt impact
      • Cross: Global risk / US tone
      • Levels: 10300 / 10400
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (DE): Bund pressure / EU outlook dimmed
      • Cross: US tech spillover / DXY
      • Levels: 23800 / 24200
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): JPY rebound limiting gains
      • Cross: US tech / Risk regime
      • Levels: 59000 / 60000
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flow stalling / Funding rate high
      • Cross: DXY impact / Risk regime
      • Levels: $79000 / $81000

    Positioning watch: Dollar, Aussie, Copper and Bitcoin are crowded longs and vulnerable to disappointment; Yen, Kiwi, and Nasdaq are crowded shorts and vulnerable to squeezes. Watch for correlated reversals if headlines shift.

    The pain trade: A de-escalation of Middle East tensions, combined with surprisingly dovish comments from Macklem at 15:30 ET, could trigger a rapid unwinding of oil longs and a short squeeze in risk assets, particularly Nasdaq.

  • Nasdaq 100 Faces Hormuz Risk as Rates Remain Sticky – Monday, 4 May

    Where we are: Nasdaq 100 futures are currently trading around 18,350, down about 0.4% on the session. This pullback comes after a solid week where the index notched fresh records. The overnight range has been relatively contained, but the bias is clearly lower as risk sentiment sours. We’re sitting below Friday’s New York close, suggesting further downside pressure at the open.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver is rising geopolitical tension. Increased tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are spiking oil prices and injecting broad risk-off sentiment, particularly hitting tech given their sensitivity to speculative bets and AI narratives. The domestic rates picture remains sticky, with the 10-year breakeven rising and real yields falling, providing a mixed backdrop — lower real rates should support risk but higher breakevens reflect upside inflation risks that keep the Fed hawkish. There is no significant domestic catalyst before the NY open.

    • CFTC data shows the Nasdaq 100 crowded short at the 0th percentile, raising squeeze potential if tensions ease.
    • The 10Y Breakeven Inflation rate rose 2bp yesterday to 2.48%, indicating growing inflation concerns despite falling nominal yields.
    • WTI Crude spiked 1.49% to $99.89, exacerbating fears of sustained inflationary pressure.

    NY session focus: Watch the headlines around the Hormuz Strait situation; any de-escalation could trigger a sharp relief rally given the crowded short positioning. Key levels to watch are 18,300 as initial support and 18,450 as resistance. Keep an eye on Palantir earnings after the bell; a positive surprise could provide a tailwind to the AI sector. The trade that’s working is shorting rallies, while the trade at risk is holding onto longs established last week. The pain trade for Nasdaq 100 would be a rapid de-escalation of Middle East tensions coupled with strong earnings from AI names, triggering a significant short squeeze.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Friday, 1 May

    Regime: Mixed — VIX is elevated at 18.81, while US 10Y yields are up 6bp on the day, suggesting a grind higher driven by real-rate repricing.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Real-rate repricing: higher yields pressuring risk assets amid sticky inflation data
    • USD/JPY intervention risk: markets remain on high alert after suspected BOJ action yesterday
    • ISM Manufacturing: US data in focus to confirm or deny disinflation narrative

    The setup: With US 10Y yields at 4.42%, the market is testing the upper end of its recent range. The trade is to fade risk assets on rallies, especially tech, given the real-yield headwinds. The risk is a dovish surprise from ISM data, which could lead to a relief rally.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 10:00 ET USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast 53.1, prior 52.7)
    • 10:00 ET USD: ISM Manufacturing Prices (forecast 80.0, prior 78.3)

    Bias by asset:

    STRICT SILO RULE: For every non-USD asset, the Domestic line MUST contain only domestic content (home central bank / domestic data / domestic yield / domestic political-fiscal driver). USD, DXY, Fed, US yields, and risk regime go in the Cross line — never in Domestic. If no fresh domestic catalyst exists, write “No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response” in Domestic. For commodities, Domestic = real-yields / supply / inventories / flows. For BTC, Domestic = funding / ETF flow / on-chain.

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Strong US yields, data dependent Fed
      • Cross: Risk aversion, hawkish repricing
      • Levels: Resistance at 119.00, support at 118.50
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (EU): ECB dovish pivot, sovereign risk
      • Cross: DXY strength, rising US-DE 10Y spread, risk-off flows
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.1750, support at 1.1700
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): BoE relatively hawkish, but growth concerns linger
      • Cross: DXY strength offsets UK yield support
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.3650, support at 1.3580
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish, but cautious
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ still dovish, intervention risk limits upside
      • Cross: US 10Y strength trumps intervention fears
      • Levels: Resistance at 157.00, support at 156.00
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): BoC cautious, oil link provides limited support
      • Cross: DXY strength, widening US-CA 10Y yield differential
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.3650, support at 1.3580
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (AU): RBA hold weighs, commodity prices mixed
      • Cross: DXY strength, China growth concerns
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.6550, support at 0.6500
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk-off sentiment
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.5950, support at 0.5900
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB easing supports USD/CHF
      • Cross: DXY strength, safe-haven flows
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.7850, support at 0.7750
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral, EUR/JPY: Bullish, GBP/JPY: Bullish
      • Domestic: ECB dovish vs BoE hawkish, BoJ dovish drives JPY weakness
      • Cross: Risk-off hurts EUR/GBP, risk supports JPY crosses
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: 0.8550-0.8600, EUR/JPY: 170.00-171.00, GBP/JPY: 192.00-193.00
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields undermine gold
      • Cross: DXY strength adds to downward pressure
      • Levels: Resistance at $4,620, support at $4,580
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand stable, Gold-Silver ratio favoring Gold
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk-off sentiment
      • Levels: Resistance at $45, support at $44
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Supply concerns offset by demand worries
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk-off sentiment
      • Levels: WTI: Resistance at $106, support at $104
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth uncertain, LME stocks rising
      • Cross: DXY strength, global growth slowdown
      • Levels: Resistance at $4.50, support at $4.40
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Rising yields pressure valuations
      • Cross: Elevated VIX, global uncertainty
      • Levels: Futures level 5,290, cash support 5,250, resistance 5,320
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Real yield impact on valuations, earnings priced in
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity, VIX spike
      • Levels: Resistance at 18,100, support at 18,000
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (US): Industrial and financial earnings mixed
      • Cross: Bond-yield sensitive, could lag
      • Levels: Resistance at 38,900, support at 38,700
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling weakness cushions downside
      • Cross: Global risk-off, US negative lead
      • Levels: Resistance at 10,350, support at 10,300
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields up, EU growth concerns
      • Cross: US tech weakness, DXY strength
      • Levels: Resistance at 24,500, support at 24,300
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): JPY strength weighs, BOJ stance limits upside
      • Cross: US tech direction, risk sentiment
      • Levels: Resistance at 59,600, support at 59,300
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Funding rates high, ETF inflows slowing
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk-off sentiment, Nasdaq correlation
      • Levels: Resistance at $61,500, support at $60,000

    Positioning watch: USD, AUD, Copper, and Bitcoin are all crowded longs above the 80th percentile, indicating significant squeeze risk on any negative surprises. JPY and NZD remain crowded shorts, susceptible to a squeeze if data improves or the BOJ hints at tightening.

    The pain trade: A soft ISM print would trigger a relief rally in risk assets, squeezing crowded USD longs and benefiting JPY/NZD shorts.

  • Nasdaq 100 Vulnerable as Real Yields Grind Higher – Friday, 1 May

    Where we are: The Nasdaq 100 is trading near unchanged at 18,050 in pre-market trading. The overnight range has been tight, confined between 18,000 and 18,100. This level is just below yesterday’s New York close, suggesting a slightly cautious tone ahead of key data releases.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver is the continued rise in US real yields, with the 10-year TIPS yield climbing another 4bp to 1.96%. This exerts downward pressure on growth stocks, particularly in the tech sector. While breakeven inflation remains stable at 2.46%, the persistent rise in real rates suggests the market is pricing in a hawkish Fed stance or concerns about sustained economic growth. The fact that AI investment carried US GDP in Q1 offsetting slowing private consumption is also a consideration. The broad dollar index remains firm at 118.7294, further weighing on risk assets.

    • The 10Y Real Yield at 1.96% is a major headwind for tech valuations, especially given elevated multiples.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial positioning in Nasdaq 100 futures is modestly long but at the 4th percentile, suggesting limited further upside and potential for a squeeze to the downside.
    • Alphabet nearing a $5 trillion valuation and the possibility of overtaking Nvidia underscores the concentration risk within the Mag 7.

    NY session focus: The key event for today will be the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices at 10:00 ET. A strong reading in either could exacerbate the real yield pressure and trigger a sell-off in the Nasdaq 100. Key levels to watch are 18,000 as immediate support and 17,800 as the next major level. Resistance sits at 18,150. The working trade has been shorting rallies into resistance. The trade at risk is chasing upside breakouts given the macro headwinds. The pain trade would be a dovish surprise triggering a risk-on rally that squeezes shorts.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Thursday, 30 April

    Regime: Risk-on, fueled by dovish central bank pivots and a weaker DXY (98.33), as global yields decline.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Dovish repricing of global central bank outlooks, with focus on BoE and ECB.
    • USD weakness amplified by potential intervention risks in USD/JPY, testing multi-decade highs.
    • Geopolitical tensions (US-Iran) continue to underpin commodities volatility.

    The setup: Markets are positioned for lower rates globally, but BoE and ECB decisions are crucial. The trade is to fade USD strength on any hawkish surprises. Risks include stronger US data or escalation of geopolitical tensions. US 10Y at 4.389% and DXY at 98.33 are key levels.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET CAD: GDP m/m (forecast 0.2%, prior 0.1%)
    • 12:00 BST GBP: BoE Monetary Policy Report
    • 14:15 CET EUR: Main Refinancing Rate (forecast 2.15%, prior 2.15%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): Fed on hold, focusing on inflation; data-dependent bias.
      • Cross: Dovish global CB pivots weighing; intervention watch impacting.
      • Levels: Support at 98.00, resistance at 98.75.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (EU): ECB likely dovish, but watchful of inflation and fragmentation.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY, supporting; focus on US-DE 10Y spread widening.
      • Levels: Support at 1.1650, resistance at 1.1720.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): BoE holds steady; focus on inflation persistence.
      • Cross: DXY softness helps; US-UK 10Y spread still favoring USD.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3450, resistance at 1.3550.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (JP): Intervention risk elevated; BoJ still dovish.
      • Cross: US 10Y dropping; risk aversion flows boosting JPY.
      • Levels: Support at 155.50, resistance at 157.50.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (CA): GDP key; BoC cautious; commodity support.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY; US-CA 10Y spread compression.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3645, resistance at 1.3700.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness; Copper prices boosting; China growth hopes.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7100, resistance at 0.7170.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (NZ): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness; risk-on sentiment supporting; squeezed shorts.
      • Levels: Support at 0.5820, resistance at 0.5880.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY drop; safe-haven demand waning; yields declining.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7830, resistance at 0.7900.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral; EUR/JPY: Down; GBP/JPY: Down.
      • Domestic: See individual currency biases for CB divergence.
      • Cross: DXY influence; risk appetite dictating flows.
      • Levels: Watch key support/resistance on the individual crosses.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields still supportive; geopolitical bids strong.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY; safe-haven demand persisting.
      • Levels: Support at 4550, resistance at 4660.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand increasing; Gold-Silver ratio still elevated.
      • Cross: DXY weakness; risk-on tone helping.
      • Levels: Support at 7150, resistance at 7450.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Supply concerns remain; EIA inventories in focus.
      • Cross: DXY influence; geopolitical risk premium embedded.
      • Levels: WTI support at 103.00, resistance at 106.00.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth hopes remain; LME stocks watched.
      • Cross: Global growth proxy; DXY weakness aiding.
      • Levels: Support at 590, resistance at 605.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Earnings positive; Fed on hold supporting.
      • Cross: VIX subdued; global risk appetite constructive.
      • Levels: Futures support at 7130, resistance at 7220.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap earnings driving gains; real yields remain low.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity still relevant; VIX relatively calm.
      • Levels: Support at 27200, resistance at 27700.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical earnings holding up; financial sector performing.
      • Cross: Bond-yield reaction contained; risk-on flowing through.
      • Levels: Support at 48700, resistance at 49500.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Global risk appetite boosting; US tone constructive.
      • Levels: Support at 22100, resistance at 22500.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (DE): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US tech strength helpful; DXY weighing less; risk regime strong.
      • Levels: Support at 23700, resistance at 24200.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US tech providing support; risk appetite generally good.
      • Levels: Support at 58900, resistance at 59500.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flows stable; funding rates watched.
      • Cross: DXY weakness supporting; Nasdaq correlation remains intact.
      • Levels: Support at 75000, resistance at 77000.

    Positioning watch: JPY remains the most crowded short (0%ile), making it vulnerable to a squeeze on any hawkish BoJ surprise or intervention. Copper, AUD and Bitcoin also hold crowded long positions (>80th percentile), making them vulnerable to sharp selloffs on weaker China data, stronger DXY or a risk-off event.

    The pain trade: A hawkish BoE or ECB surprise would trigger a violent short squeeze in USD/JPY and a broader risk-off move, hammering crowded longs in AUD, Copper and Bitcoin.

  • Nasdaq 100 Aims Higher as AI Optimism Returns – Thursday, 30 April

    Where we are: Nasdaq 100 futures currently trade at 27481.25, up 0.97% on the session, pushing towards the intraday high of 27621.00. This level is well above yesterday’s cash close of 24673.24, indicating a strong overnight bid. The technical picture suggests a potential test of the 27,500 level, with support around 27,200 holding so far.

    What’s driving it: The rally is primarily fueled by renewed optimism surrounding AI earnings, with Alphabet and Amazon leading the charge after surpassing cloud computing revenue expectations and showcasing significant enterprise client wins for their AI technologies. Rising US breakeven inflation and a modestly long positioning in Nasdaq 100 futures, though not extreme, contribute to squeeze risk. While the FOMC statement from the prior session is still resonating, the immediate focus shifts to upcoming US data releases. The direction of travel will depend on how those figures alter the narrative around growth and inflation, and consequently, the Fed’s likely path.

    • Amazon jumped over 3% pre-market.
    • The 10Y breakeven inflation rate rose 2.0bp to 2.46%
    • Net non-commercial Nasdaq 100 positioning stands at +9,439 contracts.

    NY session focus: Traders will be laser-focused on the 08:30 ET release of Advance GDP, Core PCE, and the Employment Cost Index, all of which have the potential to significantly impact market sentiment. A stronger-than-expected GDP print above the 2.2% forecast could fuel further upside in the Nasdaq 100, targeting 27,700, while a weaker number could trigger a pullback towards 27,200. The trade that’s working is long tech on AI momentum. The trade at risk is short the Nasdaq, as positioning is already stretched to the long side and a data surprise could exacerbate the squeeze. The pain trade would be a hawkish surprise that sends yields sharply higher, sparking a rotation out of growth and into value.