Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading at $77,596, down $337 (-0.43%) on the day, within a daily range of $77,397-$78,572. This is slightly below yesterday’s NY close, with early dip-buyers so far appearing to have little conviction. The dip comes despite strength in S&P 500 futures, suggesting Bitcoin is decoupling from risk-on sentiment this morning.
What’s driving it: DXY strength is likely weighing on Bitcoin, with the dollar index up 0.30% to 98.36. Recent flows into Bitcoin ETFs could provide a floor, but the overcrowded long positioning in Bitcoin futures remains a concern. Focus will likely shift to President Trump’s speech later at 17:00 London time, which could inject volatility given his recent crypto endorsements – and his own coin’s lackluster performance.
- Wire headline: Bitcoin ETFs added $2.1B in 8 days – last time this happened, Bitcoin hit an all-time high.
- DXY currently at session highs of 98.36, after a 98.32 overnight low.
- CFTC data shows net non-commercial Bitcoin positioning at the 90th percentile, signaling squeeze risk.
NY session focus: Traders should watch for a potential breakout in the DXY above 98.50, which could trigger further downside in Bitcoin. A break below $77,397 could lead to a test of $77,000. Conversely, a risk-on tone in equities could see Bitcoin recover to the $78,000 level. The Trump speech at 17:00 London is a wild card, potentially sparking a sharp rally or sell-off, with positioning ripe for a squeeze. The pain trade here is a sudden DXY reversal sending BTC hurtling through $80,000.