Category: Commodities

  • Brent Crude Under Pressure as Trump Weighs on Sentiment – Tuesday, 2 June

    Snapshot: Brent is currently trading at $94.01, down 0.81% on the day, pulled down by conflicting signals regarding US-Iran negotiations. Today’s medium-impact JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 ET could offer some intraday direction.

    • Watch for a break below $92.86 (day low) which could open the door to further downside.
    • Risk: Further conflicting headlines on Iran peace talks could amplify volatility.

    Bias into NY: Mildly bearish. Despite ongoing concerns about Strait of Hormuz disruptions, Trump’s attempt to reassure markets about a potential deal is weighing on prices. A weaker dollar (DXY at 99.05) is offering limited support.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Monday, 1 June

    Regime: Risk-on, supported by easing global inflation expectations as indicated by lower US 10Y yields and firm equities futures.

    Today’s market themes:

    • ISM Day: US ISM Manufacturing PMI key for near-term Fed rate path signals.
    • USD strength: DXY gains traction amid mixed global growth outlook, impacting emerging market stocks.
    • Oil price volatility: Geopolitical tensions and supply concerns continue to underpin oil prices.

    The setup: ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 ET will be crucial in determining the near-term Fed outlook. A print above 53.3 could fuel further DXY gains and pressure risk assets, while a miss could see yields dip and equity futures rally. Watch US 10Y around 4.45%.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 10:00 ET USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast 53.3, prior 52.7)
    • 10:00 ET USD: ISM Manufacturing Prices (forecast 85.3, prior 84.6)
    • 20:30 ET USD: FOMC Member Powell Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (US): ISM data crucial; Fed rhetoric leaning hawkish.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows supportive; EUR/GBP weakness adds to momentum.
      • Levels: Resistance 99.20, Support 98.80.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Lower.
      • Domestic (EU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength weighs; US-DE 10Y widening pressures.
      • Levels: Resistance 1.1670, Support 1.1630.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral to slightly lower.
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength a headwind; US-UK 10Y supportive.
      • Levels: Resistance 1.3480, Support 1.3440.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ still slow to tighten; intervention risks persist.
      • Cross: US 10Y driving force; DXY strength adds to upward pressure.
      • Levels: Resistance 159.75, Support 159.20.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (CA): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength dominating; US-CA 10Y favors USD upside.
      • Levels: Resistance 1.3850, Support 1.3790.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Lower.
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength; China growth concerns remain.
      • Levels: Resistance 0.7190, Support 0.7150.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Lower.
      • Domestic (NZ): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength; risk-off sentiment hurting commodity currencies.
      • Levels: Resistance 0.5990, Support 0.5940.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength; safe-haven demand muted.
      • Levels: Resistance 0.7870, Support 0.7820.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): Mixed, relative CB stance drives direction.
      • Domestic: ECB vs BoE/BoJ expectations key for cross-pair movements.
      • Cross: Overall DXY strength; risk impacting JPY leg most.
      • Levels: Monitor key levels on a case-by-case basis.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Lower.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields rising limits upside.
      • Cross: DXY strength a major headwind.
      • Levels: Resistance 4580, Support 4520.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Mixed.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand supportive, but volatile.
      • Cross: DXY strength weighs; risk appetite fluctuates.
      • Levels: Resistance 7660, Support 7420.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Geopolitical tensions support; supply concerns.
      • Cross: DXY strength can limit some upside.
      • Levels: WTI Resistance 91.50, Support 88.50.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China demand concerns still linger despite recent gains.
      • Cross: Dollar strength may temper upside for now.
      • Levels: Resistance 660, Support 640.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Sideways to slightly higher.
      • Domestic (US): Data-dependent Fed outlook influences direction.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment driving force; watch VIX reaction.
      • Levels: Futures resistance 7630, cash support 7570.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Sideways.
      • Domestic (US): Earnings season winding down, focus on macro.
      • Cross: Higher rates sensitivity; VIX affecting valuations.
      • Levels: Resistance 30600, Support 30350.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Sideways to slightly higher.
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical sectors showing resilience.
      • Cross: Bond yield direction drives sentiment.
      • Levels: Resistance 51400, Support 50700.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Lower.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling weakness supportive, but overall global risk weighs.
      • Cross: Heavily affected by general mood across US/global markets.
      • Levels: Resistance 23450, Support 23300.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Sideways.
      • Domestic (DE): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US tech sector; DXY driving some investor sentiment.
      • Levels: Resistance 25350, Support 25100.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Sideways to slightly higher.
      • Domestic (JP): Consolidation around record highs.
      • Cross: US tech; overall risk appetite important for sentiment.
      • Levels: Resistance 67300, Support 66200.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Sideways to slightly lower.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flows influence price.
      • Cross: Heavily linked to DXY; sensitive to tech direction.
      • Levels: Resistance 74100, Support 71800.

    Positioning watch: USD is crowded long at 81st percentile, and JPY remains crowded short (0th percentile) presenting squeeze risks on any dovish pivot from the Fed or a BoJ hawkish surprise. Copper and BTC are crowded long as well, both at 94th, suggesting downside risks on weaker data.

    The pain trade: A weaker-than-expected ISM, combined with Powell hinting at openness to rate cuts, would trigger a sharp rally in bonds and equities, squeezing USD longs and JPY shorts simultaneously.

  • Gold Under Pressure as Dollar Strength Persists – Monday, 1 June

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4531.9, down 0.49% on the day and near the bottom of its intraday range of 4519.3-4576.8. This price action represents a continuation of the downward pressure seen in late trading last week. The metal remains below the psychological 4550 level and well off Friday’s highs.

    What’s driving it: Gold is under pressure as renewed Middle East tensions stoke inflation fears, prompting some profit-taking after recent gains. The move is being amplified by the stronger dollar; the DXY index is currently at 99.06, up 0.13% on the session, weighing on bullion prices as investors reduce holdings. With no specific drivers domestically, gold is tracking the general risk-off sentiment reflected in the mild sell-off of US treasuries.

    • The DXY is at session highs, fuelled by the risk-off tone dominating early trade.
    • Net non-commercial positions remain modestly long at 154,260 contracts, leaving room for further downside if the dollar strengthens.
    • Goldman Sachs noted that hedge funds are buying stocks at the fastest pace in 6 months which suggests a change in capital allocation, which may be causing a headwind for gold prices.

    NY session focus: All eyes are on the 10:00 ET release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices data. A higher-than-expected print on prices could further bolster the dollar and pressure gold lower. Later in the day, at 20:30 ET, FOMC Member Powell speaks; traders will be listening closely for any further hints on the path of interest rates. Key levels to watch on the downside are 4515 and then 4500. The pain trade is a surprise dovish shift from Powell or a weaker-than-expected ISM print, which could trigger a sharp rally towards 4575.

  • Oil Rallies on Iran Deal Uncertainty – Monday, 1 June

    Snapshot: WTI crude is trading at $89.79, up 0.94%, supported by ongoing uncertainty regarding a potential US-Iran agreement. Focus shifts to the 10:00 ET ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid data for further direction.

    • A break above the day’s high of $91.25 could trigger further upside.
    • Risk of a pullback if ISM data misses expectations, exacerbating risk-off sentiment.

    Bias into NY: We favor further upside in WTI towards $92.50, contingent on a supportive ISM print, as geopolitical risks continue to underpin prices. However, a stronger dollar (DXY at 99.06) could temper gains.

  • Brent Crude Climbs on Geopolitical Risk – Monday, 1 June

    Snapshot: Brent is currently trading at $93.23, up 0.76% on the session, driven by escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Fresh waves of attacks are clouding hopes for a peace deal. Traders will be watching the 10:00 ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for further direction.

    • Immediate resistance around intraday high of $94.56.
    • Risk: Any de-escalation in Middle East tensions would likely trigger a sharp correction.

    Bias into NY: Bullish, with a target of $95.00, given the geopolitical premium and continued uncertainty surrounding supply disruptions. Firmer DXY is a headwind, but secondary to the Iran risk bid.

  • Oil Bulls Return, Testing $90 Ceiling – Monday, 1 June

    Snapshot: WTI Crude is up 0.94% at $89.79, rebounding from six-week lows, driven by persistent uncertainty around the US-Iran agreement and ongoing attacks on Russian refineries. The ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 ET will be the key catalyst for further direction.

    • WTI breaking above $90 will signal further upside potential, targeting intraday highs of $91.25, but a failure to hold those gains suggests consolidation before the US open.
    • Watch for headlines on the Iran deal; any concrete progress towards a ceasefire could trigger a sharp sell-off, reversing the recent gains.

    Bias into NY: Bullish, given the supply concerns from both Iranian tensions and Ukraine’s actions against Russian refineries, though a stronger dollar (DXY at 99.01) and lower US yields (10Y at 4.450%) are moderating factors. A break above $91.25 would open the door to further gains.

  • Brent Crude Climbs on US-Iran Uncertainty – Monday, 1 June

    Snapshot: Brent is trading at $93.13, up 0.65% on the session, driven by renewed uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran deal and escalating geopolitical tensions. All eyes are on the 10:00 ET ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid data release, which could amplify any existing moves.

    • A break above the day’s high of $94.56 could open the door for further gains.
    • Geopolitical risks remain elevated and could trigger sudden price swings.

    Bias into NY: We see a bullish bias into the NY session, targeting a test of $95.00 if the ISM data prints strong, supported by a slightly weaker 10-year yield at 4.450%.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Friday, 29 May

    Regime: Mixed, with VIX at 16.29 reflecting contained risk, but rising US 10Y yield at 4.439% suggesting real-rate concerns.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Dominant: Real-rate repricing as inflation proves stickier than expected, driving USD strength and pressuring risk assets.
    • Secondary: Geopolitical tensions (Iran) and its impact on oil supply.

    The setup: Markets are pricing in a more hawkish Fed, underpinned by resilient economic data and persistent inflation. Short equities, targeting a dip in S&P 500 to 7500, with a stop loss at 7600. Risk is a dovish surprise from BoE Gov Bailey’s speech or weaker-than-expected Canadian GDP.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:29 CET EUR: German Prelim CPI m/m (forecast 0.1%, prior 0.6%)
    • 09:20 London GBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
    • 08:30 ET CAD: GDP m/m (forecast 0.1%, prior 0.2%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Hawkish Fed rhetoric, resilient data, rising yields.
      • Cross: Global risk aversion, EUR/USD weakness.
      • Levels: Support 98.90, Resistance 99.20.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (EU): ECB’s mild easing bias, weaker growth data.
      • Cross: DXY strength, widening US-DE 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.1620, Resistance 1.1660.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): BoE dovish tilt, potential service CPI weakness.
      • Cross: DXY strength, negative US-UK 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.3400, Resistance 1.3460.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ slow normalization, intervention unlikely near-term.
      • Cross: Rising US 10Y, DXY strength, risk-on mood.
      • Levels: Support 159.00, Resistance 159.50.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CA): Weaker GDP, sensitivity to oil price moves.
      • Cross: DXY strength, widening US-CA 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.3780, Resistance 1.3840.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength, China growth uncertainty.
      • Levels: Support 0.7150, Resistance 0.7180.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ rate hike expectations, dairy price watch.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 0.5930, Resistance 0.5985.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB easing bias, low Swiss yields.
      • Cross: DXY strength, diminishing safe-haven appeal.
      • Levels: Support 0.7800, Resistance 0.7850.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): Neutral.
      • Domestic: Relative CB stance + yields: EUR/GBP BoE more hawkish, EUR/JPY BoJ less hawkish, GBP/JPY both dovish.
      • Cross: DXY, risk sentiment influences cross-of-crosses dynamics.
      • Levels: Monitor each cross’s intra-day range.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields, muted breakevens.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk-off reducing demand.
      • Levels: Support 4500, Resistance 4580.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Subdued industrial demand, weak gold.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion hurting industrial metals.
      • Levels: Support 7500, Resistance 7700.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Potential US-Iran agreement easing supply risks.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: WTI Support 86.50, Resistance 89.00.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth concerns, LME inventory levels.
      • Cross: DXY strength, global growth proxy weakening.
      • Levels: Support 635, Resistance 645.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Rising yields, earnings concerns.
      • Cross: VIX stabilizing, but fragile; global risk tone negative.
      • Levels: Futures support 7570, Cash resistance 7570.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Rising real yields, mega-cap vulnerability.
      • Cross: Rates-sensitivity, VIX uncertainty.
      • Levels: Support 30200, Resistance 30400.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): Mixed earnings, cyclical sensitivity.
      • Cross: Bond-yield reaction, less sensitive than tech.
      • Levels: Support 50700, Resistance 50900.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling strength capping gains.
      • Cross: Global risk-off offset by weaker GBP.
      • Levels: Support 23300, Resistance 23550.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields rising, weak EU data.
      • Cross: US tech weakness, DXY strength adding pressure.
      • Levels: Support 25000, Resistance 25200.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness supportive short-term, BoJ uncertainty.
      • Cross: US tech correlation, overall risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 65000, Resistance 66500.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Weak ETF flows, elevated funding rates.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion hitting crypto assets.
      • Levels: Support 73000, Resistance 74000.

    Positioning watch: JPY is crowded short (4th percentile), and AUD is crowded long (98th percentile). A hawkish surprise from the BoJ or disappointing China data could trigger a painful squeeze.

    The pain trade: A surprisingly dovish BOE and weak US data, fueling a rapid unwinding of USD longs and a squeeze of crowded JPY shorts.

  • Gold Rides Real Yields, Eyes $4575 Test – Friday, 29 May

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) currently trades at $4548.8, up $21.6 (+0.48%) on the session. Intraday, we’ve seen a range of $4519.5 – $4574.3. This puts us above yesterday’s NY close, consolidating gains made during the Asian and European sessions. A sustained break above $4575 could signal further upside momentum.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver remains the persistent weakness in US real yields. The 10-year real yield (TIPS) sits at 2.09%, down 1.0bp as of yesterday’s close, providing a tailwind for gold. Although breakeven inflation expectations are stable at 2.39%, the falling real rate environment is making gold more attractive as an inflation hedge. Some of the gains are likely capped by a slight recovery in the Dollar, with the DXY at 99.01, and the prospect of a US-Iran truce (though Vance’s comments and Trump’s potential disapproval add uncertainty), but the dominant driver remains US real rates.

    • US 10Y Real Yield: 2.09% (-1.0bp d/d as of 2026-05-27) — supports gold.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial positioning in gold at +159,833 contracts, in the 6th percentile on a 52-week lookback. This modestly long positioning suggests limited scope for fresh longs, but ample room for short covering should the rally sustain.
    • The FTSE’s +0.61% move, outpacing the DAX (-0.15%), implies some preference for UK risk assets, diverting focus from continental safe havens.

    NY session focus: Keep a close eye on US yields as the session unfolds. If the 10-year yield drifts lower from its current 4.439%, expect further gold strength. The key level to watch is $4575; a break above that opens the door to a test of $4600. Positioning data suggests the risk is to the upside. The 08:30 ET data dump will be crucial and could easily reverse the risk setup if inflationary pressures come back into view, especially in light of tepid demand in the Asian physical market. The pain trade is a hawkish surprise that sends real yields sharply higher, triggering a swift liquidation of gold positions.

  • US Crude Dives as Ceasefire Hopes Resurface – Friday, 29 May

    Snapshot: WTI crude trades at 87.28, down 1.59% on the session, as reports of a potential US-Iran agreement to ease shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz weighs heavily on sentiment. The market is currently ignoring a modestly firmer DXY at 99.01 and steady US yields.

    • WTI support is eyed at the day’s low of 86.81, with a break potentially opening the door to further downside.
    • Watch for headlines around the 08:30 ET Canadian GDP release, which could introduce some cross-market volatility, even if its direct impact on oil is limited.

    Bias into NY: Bearish on WTI. The prospect of increased oil flows, however tentative, is outweighing any bullish signals from risk sentiment, although the market remains moderately long with net non-commercial positions at the 69th percentile. A confirmed break of 86.81 would accelerate the move lower.

  • Brent Crude Faces Downward Pressure – Friday, 29 May

    Snapshot: Brent Crude is trading at $90.99, down 1.36% on the day, driven by growing expectations of a ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Today’s catalyst is the ongoing optimism surrounding US-Iran talks, despite denials from Iranian state media.

    • Brent is testing the $90.50 intraday low, a breach of which could accelerate the decline.
    • Watch for 08:30 ET CAD GDP which could trigger risk-off flows that further pressure oil.

    Bias into NY: We are biased bearish on Brent, targeting $90, as ceasefire hopes and potential supply increases outweigh positive risk sentiment signaled by rising Asian and European equity markets.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Thursday, 28 May

    Regime: Risk-off, driven by rising Mideast tensions and a flight to safety, reflected in falling US yields and a VIX above 17.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Oil supply scare: Geopolitical risks in the Black Sea and Middle East fuel concerns over energy supply, boosting crude prices.
    • Core PCE watch: Markets brace for key US inflation data, which could dictate the Fed’s near-term policy path.
    • Crowded shorts at risk: GBP, JPY and Nasdaq are crowded short based on the CFTC positioning.

    The setup: Rising geopolitical risks are pushing investors into safe-haven assets, weakening equities and boosting oil. Focus is on the 08:30 ET Core PCE print. A surprise to the upside could trigger a risk-off move, whereas a downside surprise could trigger a rally. US 10Y is at 4.479%.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 14:00 NZT NZD: Annual Budget Release (Medium)
    • 08:30 ET USD: Core PCE Price Index m/m (High) forecast 0.3%, prior 0.3%
    • 08:30 ET USD: Prelim GDP q/q (High) forecast 2.0%, prior 0.7%

    Bias by asset:

    STRICT SILO RULE: For every non-USD asset, the Domestic line MUST contain only domestic content (home central bank / domestic data / domestic yield / domestic political-fiscal driver). USD, DXY, Fed, US yields, and risk regime go in the Cross line — never in Domestic. If no fresh domestic catalyst exists, write “No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response” in Domestic. For commodities, Domestic = real-yields / supply / inventories / flows. For BTC, Domestic = funding / ETF flow / on-chain.

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral to slightly lower.
      • Domestic (US): Fed policy dependent on PCE; US yields are key.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows provide some support; but geopolitical tension is negative.
      • Levels: Support at 99.11, resistance at 99.50.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (EU): Lagarde’s commentary; Bund yields stable; watching sovereign spreads.
      • Cross: DXY weakness offsetting risk-off; US-DE 10Y spread supportive.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.1640, support near 1.1585.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral to bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength limiting upside; risk-off sentiment hurts Cable.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.3430, support at 1.3370.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Neutral to bullish.
      • Domestic (JP): Intervention risk remains high; JGB yields capped by BoJ.
      • Cross: US 10Y still above 4.45%; DXY support; risk-off may trigger unwinds.
      • Levels: Support at 159.30, resistance near 159.65.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Neutral to bullish.
      • Domestic (CA): WTI price support; BoC likely on hold in June.
      • Cross: DXY strength; US-CA 10Y spread holds.
      • Levels: Support around 1.3835, resistance near 1.3870.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (AU): RBA likely to pause; iron ore volatility.
      • Cross: DXY strength; China growth concerns.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.7145, support around 0.7100.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (NZ): Annual budget release; RBNZ expectations muted.
      • Cross: DXY strength limiting upside; risk-off sentiment weighs.
      • Levels: Resistance near 0.5910, support around 0.5865.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB easing bias; Swiss yields suppressed.
      • Cross: Safe-haven demand into USD; DXY strength.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7865, resistance near 0.7900.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral; EUR/JPY: Bearish; GBP/JPY: Bearish.
      • Domestic: ECB vs BoE, BoJ; relative yields.
      • Cross: DXY impact on each leg; risk-off impacting JPY crosses.
      • Levels: Monitor range breaks from current levels.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Falling real yields supporting; breakevens stable.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows; DXY.
      • Levels: Support near 4400, resistance at 4490.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand, Gold-Silver ratio monitoring.
      • Cross: DXY and risk appetite dictate direction.
      • Levels: Support near 7200, resistance at 7500.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Supply concerns, OPEC policy, EIA data.
      • Cross: Risk-off bid; DXY.
      • Levels: Monitor for breakouts above $93.00 and $96.00 respectively.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China demand, LME stock levels, supply side constraints.
      • Cross: Global growth concerns.
      • Levels: Support near $624.00, resistance near $636.00.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Fed policy / US yield reaction; earnings season ongoing.
      • Cross: VIX spikes on geopolitical concern; risk-off tone prevails.
      • Levels: S&P fut: resistance at 7557, support at 7505.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap earnings; real yield sensitivity on long-duration assets.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity and elevated VIX.
      • Levels: Resistance at 30135, support near 29765.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical tone; yield movements influencing industrial/financial sectors.
      • Cross: Bond yield reaction.
      • Levels: Resistance at 50819, support at 50576.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling weakness; Gilt yield reactions.
      • Cross: Global risk; US market sentiment dampening performance.
      • Levels: Resistance near 23390, support around 23190.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields; ECB rhetoric; IFO / ZEW.
      • Cross: US tech weakness impacting; DXY.
      • Levels: Resistance at 25175, support at 24995.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY moves, JGB yields, BoJ comments influencing sentiment.
      • Cross: US tech pressure impacting; overall risk tone.
      • Levels: Resistance near 65165, support around 63880.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Funding rates, ETF flows, and on-chain data under pressure.
      • Cross: DXY is supportive but broader risk-off pulls it down.
      • Levels: Resistance near 74500, support around 72500.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded shorts in GBP, JPY and Nasdaq and crowded longs in AUD, Copper and Bitcoin. Any positive surprise from economic data (especially the US PCE) or easing of geopolitical tensions could trigger a short squeeze in GBP, JPY and Nasdaq.

    The pain trade: A weaker-than-expected Core PCE print would trigger a relief rally in risk assets, squeezing shorts in GBP, JPY and Nasdaq, and pressuring the DXY and pushing real-rates lower.

  • Gold Plunges to Two-Month Low on Real Yield Surge – Thursday, 28 May

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4452.8, down 39.2 points or 0.87% intraday. The overnight range has been between 4396.2 and 4492.8. This price action breaks the two-month low, extending losses seen in the Asian and European sessions.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver behind the gold sell-off is the marked increase in US real yields. While TIPS yields have recently fallen -6.0bp, inflationary pressures stoking the expectation of further hawkish policy and rate-hikes for longer, are keeping downward pressure on Gold. This is compounded by a broadly stronger dollar, although the DXY is currently down -0.13% at 99.13. Recent speeches from Fed officials Jefferson and Cook haven’t offered any dovish signals. Furthermore, news of fresh US strikes on Iranian military sites is adding to the pressure, diminishing gold’s safe-haven appeal even as it fuels inflationary concerns.

    • US 10Y real yields remain at an elevated 2.1%, even after the recent -6.0bp dip.
    • The prospect of the Fed maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period diminishes gold’s allure as a non-yielding asset.
    • Speculator positioning is modestly long, with net non-commercial positions at +159,833 contracts, leaving gold vulnerable to further downside pressure.

    NY session focus: The key event to watch today is the 08:30 ET release of Core PCE Price Index and Prelim GDP figures, as these numbers will likely dictate the next leg in real yields and thus gold. If the PCE data comes in hotter than the forecast 0.3%, expect a further spike in real yields and a test of the 4396.2 low. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected print could offer a temporary reprieve, targeting 4492.8. The trade that’s working is shorting gold on rallies. The pain trade would be a significant dovish surprise, sparking a short squeeze targeting 4550.

  • WTI Crude Bounces on Renewed Geopolitical Risks – Thursday, 28 May

    Snapshot: WTI crude is trading at $90.52, up 1.20% on the session, rebounding from recent losses as rising tensions between the US and Iran raise concerns about supply disruptions. Today’s key event is the 08:30 ET release of Core PCE and Prelim GDP figures, which could influence the dollar and broader risk sentiment.

    • WTI’s intraday high of $92.51 marks initial resistance; a break above this level could signal further upside.
    • Watch for volatility around the 08:30 ET data releases; weaker growth and stable inflation could weigh on the dollar and boost crude, but the reverse is also true.

    Bias into NY: We are cautiously bullish on WTI into the NY session, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions; a break above $92.51 would suggest further upside toward $95, though stronger-than-expected GDP could temper gains by supporting the dollar.

  • North Sea Oil Eyes $95 as Iran Tensions Flare – Thursday, 28 May

    Snapshot: Brent is currently trading at $93.92, up 0.17% on the session. Renewed tensions between the US and Iran are weakening expectations for a near-term agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, driving the price higher.

    • A break above $95.00 could trigger further upside momentum given positioning is neutral.
    • Risk lies in a surprise announcement regarding de-escalation of tensions between the US and Iran.

    Bias into NY: Expect a grind higher toward $95.00, contingent on no surprises from the 08:30 ET US data releases; DXY stability near 99.00 offers support.