Category: Commodities

  • Oil Rallies on Iran Deal Uncertainty – Monday, 1 June

    Snapshot: WTI crude is trading at $89.79, up 0.94%, supported by ongoing uncertainty regarding a potential US-Iran agreement. Focus shifts to the 10:00 ET ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid data for further direction.

    • A break above the day’s high of $91.25 could trigger further upside.
    • Risk of a pullback if ISM data misses expectations, exacerbating risk-off sentiment.

    Bias into NY: We favor further upside in WTI towards $92.50, contingent on a supportive ISM print, as geopolitical risks continue to underpin prices. However, a stronger dollar (DXY at 99.06) could temper gains.

  • Brent Crude Climbs on Geopolitical Risk – Monday, 1 June

    Snapshot: Brent is currently trading at $93.23, up 0.76% on the session, driven by escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Fresh waves of attacks are clouding hopes for a peace deal. Traders will be watching the 10:00 ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for further direction.

    • Immediate resistance around intraday high of $94.56.
    • Risk: Any de-escalation in Middle East tensions would likely trigger a sharp correction.

    Bias into NY: Bullish, with a target of $95.00, given the geopolitical premium and continued uncertainty surrounding supply disruptions. Firmer DXY is a headwind, but secondary to the Iran risk bid.

  • Oil Bulls Return, Testing $90 Ceiling – Monday, 1 June

    Snapshot: WTI Crude is up 0.94% at $89.79, rebounding from six-week lows, driven by persistent uncertainty around the US-Iran agreement and ongoing attacks on Russian refineries. The ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 ET will be the key catalyst for further direction.

    • WTI breaking above $90 will signal further upside potential, targeting intraday highs of $91.25, but a failure to hold those gains suggests consolidation before the US open.
    • Watch for headlines on the Iran deal; any concrete progress towards a ceasefire could trigger a sharp sell-off, reversing the recent gains.

    Bias into NY: Bullish, given the supply concerns from both Iranian tensions and Ukraine’s actions against Russian refineries, though a stronger dollar (DXY at 99.01) and lower US yields (10Y at 4.450%) are moderating factors. A break above $91.25 would open the door to further gains.

  • Brent Crude Climbs on US-Iran Uncertainty – Monday, 1 June

    Snapshot: Brent is trading at $93.13, up 0.65% on the session, driven by renewed uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran deal and escalating geopolitical tensions. All eyes are on the 10:00 ET ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid data release, which could amplify any existing moves.

    • A break above the day’s high of $94.56 could open the door for further gains.
    • Geopolitical risks remain elevated and could trigger sudden price swings.

    Bias into NY: We see a bullish bias into the NY session, targeting a test of $95.00 if the ISM data prints strong, supported by a slightly weaker 10-year yield at 4.450%.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Friday, 29 May

    Regime: Mixed, with VIX at 16.29 reflecting contained risk, but rising US 10Y yield at 4.439% suggesting real-rate concerns.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Dominant: Real-rate repricing as inflation proves stickier than expected, driving USD strength and pressuring risk assets.
    • Secondary: Geopolitical tensions (Iran) and its impact on oil supply.

    The setup: Markets are pricing in a more hawkish Fed, underpinned by resilient economic data and persistent inflation. Short equities, targeting a dip in S&P 500 to 7500, with a stop loss at 7600. Risk is a dovish surprise from BoE Gov Bailey’s speech or weaker-than-expected Canadian GDP.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:29 CET EUR: German Prelim CPI m/m (forecast 0.1%, prior 0.6%)
    • 09:20 London GBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
    • 08:30 ET CAD: GDP m/m (forecast 0.1%, prior 0.2%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Hawkish Fed rhetoric, resilient data, rising yields.
      • Cross: Global risk aversion, EUR/USD weakness.
      • Levels: Support 98.90, Resistance 99.20.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (EU): ECB’s mild easing bias, weaker growth data.
      • Cross: DXY strength, widening US-DE 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.1620, Resistance 1.1660.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): BoE dovish tilt, potential service CPI weakness.
      • Cross: DXY strength, negative US-UK 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.3400, Resistance 1.3460.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ slow normalization, intervention unlikely near-term.
      • Cross: Rising US 10Y, DXY strength, risk-on mood.
      • Levels: Support 159.00, Resistance 159.50.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CA): Weaker GDP, sensitivity to oil price moves.
      • Cross: DXY strength, widening US-CA 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.3780, Resistance 1.3840.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength, China growth uncertainty.
      • Levels: Support 0.7150, Resistance 0.7180.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ rate hike expectations, dairy price watch.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 0.5930, Resistance 0.5985.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB easing bias, low Swiss yields.
      • Cross: DXY strength, diminishing safe-haven appeal.
      • Levels: Support 0.7800, Resistance 0.7850.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): Neutral.
      • Domestic: Relative CB stance + yields: EUR/GBP BoE more hawkish, EUR/JPY BoJ less hawkish, GBP/JPY both dovish.
      • Cross: DXY, risk sentiment influences cross-of-crosses dynamics.
      • Levels: Monitor each cross’s intra-day range.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields, muted breakevens.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk-off reducing demand.
      • Levels: Support 4500, Resistance 4580.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Subdued industrial demand, weak gold.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion hurting industrial metals.
      • Levels: Support 7500, Resistance 7700.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Potential US-Iran agreement easing supply risks.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: WTI Support 86.50, Resistance 89.00.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth concerns, LME inventory levels.
      • Cross: DXY strength, global growth proxy weakening.
      • Levels: Support 635, Resistance 645.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Rising yields, earnings concerns.
      • Cross: VIX stabilizing, but fragile; global risk tone negative.
      • Levels: Futures support 7570, Cash resistance 7570.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Rising real yields, mega-cap vulnerability.
      • Cross: Rates-sensitivity, VIX uncertainty.
      • Levels: Support 30200, Resistance 30400.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): Mixed earnings, cyclical sensitivity.
      • Cross: Bond-yield reaction, less sensitive than tech.
      • Levels: Support 50700, Resistance 50900.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling strength capping gains.
      • Cross: Global risk-off offset by weaker GBP.
      • Levels: Support 23300, Resistance 23550.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields rising, weak EU data.
      • Cross: US tech weakness, DXY strength adding pressure.
      • Levels: Support 25000, Resistance 25200.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness supportive short-term, BoJ uncertainty.
      • Cross: US tech correlation, overall risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 65000, Resistance 66500.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Weak ETF flows, elevated funding rates.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion hitting crypto assets.
      • Levels: Support 73000, Resistance 74000.

    Positioning watch: JPY is crowded short (4th percentile), and AUD is crowded long (98th percentile). A hawkish surprise from the BoJ or disappointing China data could trigger a painful squeeze.

    The pain trade: A surprisingly dovish BOE and weak US data, fueling a rapid unwinding of USD longs and a squeeze of crowded JPY shorts.

  • Gold Rides Real Yields, Eyes $4575 Test – Friday, 29 May

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) currently trades at $4548.8, up $21.6 (+0.48%) on the session. Intraday, we’ve seen a range of $4519.5 – $4574.3. This puts us above yesterday’s NY close, consolidating gains made during the Asian and European sessions. A sustained break above $4575 could signal further upside momentum.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver remains the persistent weakness in US real yields. The 10-year real yield (TIPS) sits at 2.09%, down 1.0bp as of yesterday’s close, providing a tailwind for gold. Although breakeven inflation expectations are stable at 2.39%, the falling real rate environment is making gold more attractive as an inflation hedge. Some of the gains are likely capped by a slight recovery in the Dollar, with the DXY at 99.01, and the prospect of a US-Iran truce (though Vance’s comments and Trump’s potential disapproval add uncertainty), but the dominant driver remains US real rates.

    • US 10Y Real Yield: 2.09% (-1.0bp d/d as of 2026-05-27) — supports gold.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial positioning in gold at +159,833 contracts, in the 6th percentile on a 52-week lookback. This modestly long positioning suggests limited scope for fresh longs, but ample room for short covering should the rally sustain.
    • The FTSE’s +0.61% move, outpacing the DAX (-0.15%), implies some preference for UK risk assets, diverting focus from continental safe havens.

    NY session focus: Keep a close eye on US yields as the session unfolds. If the 10-year yield drifts lower from its current 4.439%, expect further gold strength. The key level to watch is $4575; a break above that opens the door to a test of $4600. Positioning data suggests the risk is to the upside. The 08:30 ET data dump will be crucial and could easily reverse the risk setup if inflationary pressures come back into view, especially in light of tepid demand in the Asian physical market. The pain trade is a hawkish surprise that sends real yields sharply higher, triggering a swift liquidation of gold positions.

  • US Crude Dives as Ceasefire Hopes Resurface – Friday, 29 May

    Snapshot: WTI crude trades at 87.28, down 1.59% on the session, as reports of a potential US-Iran agreement to ease shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz weighs heavily on sentiment. The market is currently ignoring a modestly firmer DXY at 99.01 and steady US yields.

    • WTI support is eyed at the day’s low of 86.81, with a break potentially opening the door to further downside.
    • Watch for headlines around the 08:30 ET Canadian GDP release, which could introduce some cross-market volatility, even if its direct impact on oil is limited.

    Bias into NY: Bearish on WTI. The prospect of increased oil flows, however tentative, is outweighing any bullish signals from risk sentiment, although the market remains moderately long with net non-commercial positions at the 69th percentile. A confirmed break of 86.81 would accelerate the move lower.

  • Brent Crude Faces Downward Pressure – Friday, 29 May

    Snapshot: Brent Crude is trading at $90.99, down 1.36% on the day, driven by growing expectations of a ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Today’s catalyst is the ongoing optimism surrounding US-Iran talks, despite denials from Iranian state media.

    • Brent is testing the $90.50 intraday low, a breach of which could accelerate the decline.
    • Watch for 08:30 ET CAD GDP which could trigger risk-off flows that further pressure oil.

    Bias into NY: We are biased bearish on Brent, targeting $90, as ceasefire hopes and potential supply increases outweigh positive risk sentiment signaled by rising Asian and European equity markets.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Thursday, 28 May

    Regime: Risk-off, driven by rising Mideast tensions and a flight to safety, reflected in falling US yields and a VIX above 17.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Oil supply scare: Geopolitical risks in the Black Sea and Middle East fuel concerns over energy supply, boosting crude prices.
    • Core PCE watch: Markets brace for key US inflation data, which could dictate the Fed’s near-term policy path.
    • Crowded shorts at risk: GBP, JPY and Nasdaq are crowded short based on the CFTC positioning.

    The setup: Rising geopolitical risks are pushing investors into safe-haven assets, weakening equities and boosting oil. Focus is on the 08:30 ET Core PCE print. A surprise to the upside could trigger a risk-off move, whereas a downside surprise could trigger a rally. US 10Y is at 4.479%.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 14:00 NZT NZD: Annual Budget Release (Medium)
    • 08:30 ET USD: Core PCE Price Index m/m (High) forecast 0.3%, prior 0.3%
    • 08:30 ET USD: Prelim GDP q/q (High) forecast 2.0%, prior 0.7%

    Bias by asset:

    STRICT SILO RULE: For every non-USD asset, the Domestic line MUST contain only domestic content (home central bank / domestic data / domestic yield / domestic political-fiscal driver). USD, DXY, Fed, US yields, and risk regime go in the Cross line — never in Domestic. If no fresh domestic catalyst exists, write “No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response” in Domestic. For commodities, Domestic = real-yields / supply / inventories / flows. For BTC, Domestic = funding / ETF flow / on-chain.

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral to slightly lower.
      • Domestic (US): Fed policy dependent on PCE; US yields are key.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows provide some support; but geopolitical tension is negative.
      • Levels: Support at 99.11, resistance at 99.50.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (EU): Lagarde’s commentary; Bund yields stable; watching sovereign spreads.
      • Cross: DXY weakness offsetting risk-off; US-DE 10Y spread supportive.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.1640, support near 1.1585.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral to bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength limiting upside; risk-off sentiment hurts Cable.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.3430, support at 1.3370.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Neutral to bullish.
      • Domestic (JP): Intervention risk remains high; JGB yields capped by BoJ.
      • Cross: US 10Y still above 4.45%; DXY support; risk-off may trigger unwinds.
      • Levels: Support at 159.30, resistance near 159.65.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Neutral to bullish.
      • Domestic (CA): WTI price support; BoC likely on hold in June.
      • Cross: DXY strength; US-CA 10Y spread holds.
      • Levels: Support around 1.3835, resistance near 1.3870.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (AU): RBA likely to pause; iron ore volatility.
      • Cross: DXY strength; China growth concerns.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.7145, support around 0.7100.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (NZ): Annual budget release; RBNZ expectations muted.
      • Cross: DXY strength limiting upside; risk-off sentiment weighs.
      • Levels: Resistance near 0.5910, support around 0.5865.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB easing bias; Swiss yields suppressed.
      • Cross: Safe-haven demand into USD; DXY strength.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7865, resistance near 0.7900.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral; EUR/JPY: Bearish; GBP/JPY: Bearish.
      • Domestic: ECB vs BoE, BoJ; relative yields.
      • Cross: DXY impact on each leg; risk-off impacting JPY crosses.
      • Levels: Monitor range breaks from current levels.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Falling real yields supporting; breakevens stable.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows; DXY.
      • Levels: Support near 4400, resistance at 4490.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand, Gold-Silver ratio monitoring.
      • Cross: DXY and risk appetite dictate direction.
      • Levels: Support near 7200, resistance at 7500.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Supply concerns, OPEC policy, EIA data.
      • Cross: Risk-off bid; DXY.
      • Levels: Monitor for breakouts above $93.00 and $96.00 respectively.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China demand, LME stock levels, supply side constraints.
      • Cross: Global growth concerns.
      • Levels: Support near $624.00, resistance near $636.00.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Fed policy / US yield reaction; earnings season ongoing.
      • Cross: VIX spikes on geopolitical concern; risk-off tone prevails.
      • Levels: S&P fut: resistance at 7557, support at 7505.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap earnings; real yield sensitivity on long-duration assets.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity and elevated VIX.
      • Levels: Resistance at 30135, support near 29765.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical tone; yield movements influencing industrial/financial sectors.
      • Cross: Bond yield reaction.
      • Levels: Resistance at 50819, support at 50576.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling weakness; Gilt yield reactions.
      • Cross: Global risk; US market sentiment dampening performance.
      • Levels: Resistance near 23390, support around 23190.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields; ECB rhetoric; IFO / ZEW.
      • Cross: US tech weakness impacting; DXY.
      • Levels: Resistance at 25175, support at 24995.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY moves, JGB yields, BoJ comments influencing sentiment.
      • Cross: US tech pressure impacting; overall risk tone.
      • Levels: Resistance near 65165, support around 63880.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Funding rates, ETF flows, and on-chain data under pressure.
      • Cross: DXY is supportive but broader risk-off pulls it down.
      • Levels: Resistance near 74500, support around 72500.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded shorts in GBP, JPY and Nasdaq and crowded longs in AUD, Copper and Bitcoin. Any positive surprise from economic data (especially the US PCE) or easing of geopolitical tensions could trigger a short squeeze in GBP, JPY and Nasdaq.

    The pain trade: A weaker-than-expected Core PCE print would trigger a relief rally in risk assets, squeezing shorts in GBP, JPY and Nasdaq, and pressuring the DXY and pushing real-rates lower.

  • Gold Plunges to Two-Month Low on Real Yield Surge – Thursday, 28 May

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4452.8, down 39.2 points or 0.87% intraday. The overnight range has been between 4396.2 and 4492.8. This price action breaks the two-month low, extending losses seen in the Asian and European sessions.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver behind the gold sell-off is the marked increase in US real yields. While TIPS yields have recently fallen -6.0bp, inflationary pressures stoking the expectation of further hawkish policy and rate-hikes for longer, are keeping downward pressure on Gold. This is compounded by a broadly stronger dollar, although the DXY is currently down -0.13% at 99.13. Recent speeches from Fed officials Jefferson and Cook haven’t offered any dovish signals. Furthermore, news of fresh US strikes on Iranian military sites is adding to the pressure, diminishing gold’s safe-haven appeal even as it fuels inflationary concerns.

    • US 10Y real yields remain at an elevated 2.1%, even after the recent -6.0bp dip.
    • The prospect of the Fed maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period diminishes gold’s allure as a non-yielding asset.
    • Speculator positioning is modestly long, with net non-commercial positions at +159,833 contracts, leaving gold vulnerable to further downside pressure.

    NY session focus: The key event to watch today is the 08:30 ET release of Core PCE Price Index and Prelim GDP figures, as these numbers will likely dictate the next leg in real yields and thus gold. If the PCE data comes in hotter than the forecast 0.3%, expect a further spike in real yields and a test of the 4396.2 low. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected print could offer a temporary reprieve, targeting 4492.8. The trade that’s working is shorting gold on rallies. The pain trade would be a significant dovish surprise, sparking a short squeeze targeting 4550.

  • WTI Crude Bounces on Renewed Geopolitical Risks – Thursday, 28 May

    Snapshot: WTI crude is trading at $90.52, up 1.20% on the session, rebounding from recent losses as rising tensions between the US and Iran raise concerns about supply disruptions. Today’s key event is the 08:30 ET release of Core PCE and Prelim GDP figures, which could influence the dollar and broader risk sentiment.

    • WTI’s intraday high of $92.51 marks initial resistance; a break above this level could signal further upside.
    • Watch for volatility around the 08:30 ET data releases; weaker growth and stable inflation could weigh on the dollar and boost crude, but the reverse is also true.

    Bias into NY: We are cautiously bullish on WTI into the NY session, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions; a break above $92.51 would suggest further upside toward $95, though stronger-than-expected GDP could temper gains by supporting the dollar.

  • North Sea Oil Eyes $95 as Iran Tensions Flare – Thursday, 28 May

    Snapshot: Brent is currently trading at $93.92, up 0.17% on the session. Renewed tensions between the US and Iran are weakening expectations for a near-term agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, driving the price higher.

    • A break above $95.00 could trigger further upside momentum given positioning is neutral.
    • Risk lies in a surprise announcement regarding de-escalation of tensions between the US and Iran.

    Bias into NY: Expect a grind higher toward $95.00, contingent on no surprises from the 08:30 ET US data releases; DXY stability near 99.00 offers support.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Wednesday, 27 May

    Regime: Mixed. VIX sits at 16.59, while US 2Y yields are edging higher and the DXY hovers around 98.95, signaling risk-off sentiment battling positive momentum.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Strait of Hormuz tension eases: Oil prices plummet on reports of progress restoring shipping through the Strait, impacting commodity currencies.
    • Australian CPI miss: Cooler-than-expected Australian inflation data pressure the AUD, raising RBA policy questions.
    • RBNZ telegraphs tightening: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds steady but signals future rate hikes, boosting the Kiwi.

    The setup: Oil’s sharp drop after Iran’s signal about Strait of Hormuz shipping is cascading through markets. Watch CAD and commodity FX for further weakness if oil sustains its losses. A break below $87.80 in WTI could trigger a further sell-off.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 11:30 AEST AUD: CPI y/y (forecast 4.4%, prior 4.6%)
    • 14:00 NZT NZD: Official Cash Rate (forecast 2.25%, prior 2.25%)
    • 09:00 JST JPY: BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Sideways.
      • Domestic (US): Fed signaling mixed / inflation expectations remain sticky.
      • Cross: Oil impact / safe-haven demand ebb and flow.
      • Levels: Support 98.80 / Resistance 99.20.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (EU): ECB hawks vs doves battle / Bund yields rangebound.
      • Cross: DXY weakness offset by risk-off flow / US-DE 10Y widening.
      • Levels: Support 1.1630 / Resistance 1.1680.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): BoE cut expectations building / Gilt yields under pressure.
      • Cross: DXY strength cap / US-UK 10Y divergence.
      • Levels: Support 1.3400 / Resistance 1.3480.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish, but watch intervention.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ cautious / Ueda verbal intervention / JGB constrained.
      • Cross: US 10Y supportive / risk-on flow offset by intervention threat.
      • Levels: Support 159.00 / Resistance 159.50.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CA): BoC dovish / CAD vulnerable to oil rout.
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-CA 10Y supportive.
      • Levels: Support 1.3800 / Resistance 1.3850.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (AU): Weak CPI raises RBA pause risk.
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-AU 10Y negative spread / China uncertainty.
      • Levels: Support 0.7100 / Resistance 0.7180.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ hawkish signal / OCR supports.
      • Cross: DXY strength offset by domestic policy tailwind.
      • Levels: Support 0.5850 / Resistance 0.5920.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength / safe-haven fading.
      • Levels: Support 0.7820 / Resistance 0.7880.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): Mixed.
      • Domestic: Relative BoE/ECB/BoJ stance driving flows.
      • Cross: DXY chop / risk sentiment mixed.
      • Levels: Monitor individual charts for key levels.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields hurt gold / CB demand slows.
      • Cross: DXY strength / reduced safe-haven bid.
      • Levels: Support 4450 / Resistance 4500.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand concerns / Gold underperformance.
      • Cross: DXY strength / risk aversion fading.
      • Levels: Support 7350 / Resistance 7500.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Strait of Hormuz progress weighs / EIA build risk.
      • Cross: DXY strength headwind / global growth worries.
      • Levels: WTI Support $87.50 / Resistance $90.00.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth concerns / LME inventories rise.
      • Cross: DXY impact / global growth proxy weakens.
      • Levels: Support 630 / Resistance 640.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Sideways.
      • Domestic (US): Earnings season tapering / Fed watch / yield sensitivity.
      • Cross: VIX stable / global growth concerns offsetting.
      • Levels: Futures support 7530 / resistance 7570.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Sideways.
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap results mixed / real yield pressure building.
      • Cross: Higher rates sensitivity / VIX benign.
      • Levels: Support 30000 / Resistance 30400.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Sideways.
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical earnings mixed / bond yields a factor.
      • Cross: Sentiment dependent on yields / relative valuation.
      • Levels: Support 50500 / Resistance 50800.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling weakness helps / commodity strength supports.
      • Cross: Global risk on / US data impact.
      • Levels: Support 23300 / Resistance 23550.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (DE): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US tech influence / DXY impact / risk tone.
      • Levels: Support 25200 / Resistance 25400.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY intervention risk / profit-taking after rally.
      • Cross: US tech / risk off.
      • Levels: Support 64500 / Resistance 65500.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Sideways.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flows slowing / funding rates elevated.
      • Cross: DXY impact / risk correlated.
      • Levels: Support $75000 / Resistance $76000.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded short positions in GBP and JPY, suggesting squeeze risk if data surprises positively. AUD and Copper are crowded longs, vulnerable to disappointment.

    The pain trade: A strong US data print today, particularly on inflation, would force a repricing of Fed expectations, hammering bonds and risk assets as the DXY surges.

  • Gold Slides as Real Yields Steady, Mideast Tensions Ease – Wednesday, 27 May

    Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4476.0, down 1.46% on the day, and below the overnight range of 4454.6-4560.1. The current price is well below yesterday’s New York close, reflecting the ongoing pressure. The metal seems to be struggling to find a foothold amid a confluence of factors.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver appears to be the stability in US real yields, currently at 2.16%, following recent declines that had supported gold. Breakeven inflation remaining steady at 2.4% is also providing limited upside catalyst for the metal, especially as risk appetite has returned. This has been further compounded by perceived easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as gold’s safe-haven appeal diminishes.

    • Federal Reserve minutes from the discount rate meeting on April 20 and 29 revealed no immediate concerns over inflation or economic slowdown, reducing bets on near-term rate cuts and diminishing gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
    • Net non-commercial positioning in gold remains modestly long, at +159,833 contracts, and is at only the 6th percentile, suggesting there is room for further long liquidation.
    • Goldman Sachs raised its S&P 500 target to 8,000, signaling confidence in risk assets and further diminishing the relative attractiveness of gold.

    NY session focus: Watch the 08:30 ET data releases carefully; any surprises in core inflation or jobless claims could reignite volatility in real yields and provide a short-term directional catalyst. Key levels to watch are 4450 as immediate support and 4500 as resistance. The trade that’s working right now is fading rallies as the market continues to price in diminished geopolitical risk and stable real yields. The major risk is a sharp deterioration in the Middle East situation, reigniting safe-haven demand. The pain trade for Gold is a sharp rally in US equities.

  • Oil Plummets as Supply Fears Ease – Wednesday, 27 May

    Snapshot: WTI Crude is down 5.14% to $88.69, driven by reports of progress in restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The Fed’s April discount rate meeting minutes are a secondary factor, suggesting continued vigilance on inflation. No major US data before the NY open.

    • Watch for further confirmation of Hormuz Strait traffic; breach of $87.80 (day low) signals further downside.
    • Risk: Secretary Rubio warns that any peace agreement could still take several days to complete.

    Bias into NY: Bearish. Easing supply concerns are likely to pressure US Oil further, targeting a break of the $87.80 intraday low, with the DXY hovering near 99.00 offering little support.