Category: Commodities

Asset Summary – Tuesday, 8 April

GBPUSD experienced a decline as the British pound weakened significantly against the dollar. The drop was primarily fueled by growing risk aversion in the market due to concerns about the potential for a global recession stemming from US trade policies. China’s retaliatory tariffs exacerbated these fears. Consequently, investors are increasingly anticipating interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, with markets now pricing in substantial reductions to the benchmark rate. The increased probability of a near-term rate cut further contributes to the downward pressure on the pound, suggesting continued weakness in the GBPUSD exchange rate.

EURUSD faces a complex outlook amidst escalating trade tensions and anticipated monetary policy adjustments. The dollar’s weakness is supporting the euro, keeping the currency pair near recent highs. However, the potential for a full-blown trade war, particularly with increased tariffs between the U.S. and both China and the EU, creates uncertainty. Macron’s call to suspend U.S. investments and the EU’s potential retaliatory measures further exacerbate the situation. Crucially, markets are increasingly pricing in ECB rate cuts, which could weigh on the euro. The expectation of lower interest rates in the Eurozone, with a high probability of a cut in April and further easing anticipated throughout the year, presents a downward pressure on the euro relative to the dollar, potentially offsetting the current support from dollar weakness.

DOW JONES faces continued pressure amid high market volatility and tariff anxieties. Recent trading saw the Dow decline, reflecting sensitivity to trade uncertainties despite initial optimism fueled by tariff pause rumors, which were later refuted. This suggests the index’s performance is heavily influenced by trade policy developments. While technology stocks showed resilience, boosting the Nasdaq, the Dow’s broader composition makes it more susceptible to negative sentiment surrounding tariffs, and investors are likely to remain cautious until further clarity emerges, particularly with upcoming inflation data potentially shaping monetary policy decisions.

FTSE 100 experienced a significant decline, falling to a yearly low as market sentiment was negatively impacted by escalating trade tensions between the US and other nations, particularly China, stemming from tariff escalations. The broad selloff saw substantial losses across various sectors, with Melrose Industries, RELX, Sage Group and Rentokil Initial being particularly affected. The limited gains from companies such as Fresnillo, Entain, Natwest Group, and Taylor Wimpey were insufficient to offset the widespread downturn, indicating a bearish outlook driven by macroeconomic uncertainties.

GOLD is currently experiencing upward price pressure fueled by anxieties surrounding a potential global economic slowdown triggered by escalating trade disputes. President Trump’s threat of increased tariffs on Chinese goods and the EU’s proposed counter-tariffs against the U.S. are key drivers of this safe-haven demand. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, along with upcoming inflation and producer price data, will be closely scrutinized for clues regarding future monetary policy, which could further influence gold’s trajectory. Despite recent dips, gold has demonstrated substantial gains this year, indicating underlying strength in the market.

Asset Summary – Monday, 7 April

GBPUSD experienced a significant rise, reaching a six-month high of $1.3, primarily driven by a weakened US dollar. This dollar weakness stems from market anxieties surrounding newly announced US tariffs, including a 10% levy on UK imports. Investor concerns about the global economic impact of these tariffs have triggered a flight to safety, benefiting the pound. Furthermore, increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE), as reflected in market pricing, are adding upward pressure on the GBPUSD, with markets now anticipating 62bps worth of cuts. The UK Prime Minister’s intention to act in Britain’s interest is likely a contributing factor to investor confidence in the pound.

EURUSD faces potential volatility and downward pressure. The weakening dollar initially supported the euro, but escalating trade war tensions introduce significant uncertainty. China’s retaliatory tariffs and potential EU countermeasures against US tariffs weigh on global trade, pushing the ECB towards a likely rate cut. Increased expectations for a lower ECB deposit rate by the end of the year signal a weakening Eurozone economy, which could diminish the euro’s appeal and lead to a decline in the EURUSD exchange rate, despite its current position near recent highs.

DOW JONES is facing significant downward pressure, suggested by the sharp decline in Dow futures. The aggressive tariff policies pursued by the White House, combined with retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada, and the EU, are fueling market uncertainty and prompting a selloff. The substantial losses already incurred by the Dow last week, coupled with the Trump administration’s steadfast stance on tariffs despite market reactions, indicate further potential for instability and decline in the Dow’s value.

FTSE 100 has experienced a decline in value since the start of 2025. Trading activity, as indicated by a contract for difference (CFD) that mirrors the index’s performance, reveals a decrease of 118 points, which translates to a 1.44% reduction in the index’s overall value. This suggests a negative trend in the performance of the leading companies listed on the UK stock market.

GOLD is experiencing downward pressure as investors sell off holdings to cover losses in other markets, reacting to a broader financial market downturn. Heightened trade war anxieties, driven by newly implemented and anticipated tariffs, are fueling recession fears, prompting liquidation of gold positions. Federal Reserve concerns about the inflationary and growth-dampening effects of these tariffs further contribute to the negative sentiment surrounding gold, suggesting a challenging near-term outlook for its price.

Asset Summary – Friday, 4 April

GBPUSD experienced a significant upward movement, reaching a six-month high as the US dollar weakened considerably. This surge was largely driven by market participants reacting to newly announced US tariffs, including a 10% tariff on UK imports, which has fostered risk aversion and a flight to safe-haven assets. The UK’s measured response, emphasizing a focus on British interests, appears to be contributing to the pound’s relative strength. Furthermore, the market’s increased expectation of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England suggests investors anticipate a potential easing of monetary policy to mitigate the economic impact of the tariffs, influencing the dynamics of the currency pair.

EURUSD is experiencing upward pressure driven by a weaker dollar. New US tariffs, particularly those targeting the European Union, are creating economic uncertainty and prompting expectations of retaliatory measures. This situation is leading traders to anticipate a more dovish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB), including potential interest rate cuts. The combination of dollar weakness and increased expectations for ECB easing is contributing to the Euro’s rise against the dollar.

DOW JONES faces significant downward pressure following President Trump’s announcement of widespread tariffs, which triggered a substantial selloff in the stock market. The Dow’s sharp decline on Thursday reflects investor anxiety about potential global retaliation, threatening trade and economic expansion. While there are signs that the President may be open to negotiations, the overall market sentiment remains fragile, particularly as tech stocks, which heavily influence the Dow, experienced sharp losses. Investors will closely watch the upcoming jobs report for indications about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, but the immediate outlook suggests continued volatility for the Dow.

FTSE 100 experienced a significant downturn, dropping to a level not seen since mid-January as it mirrored a widespread global market decline. Investor confidence took a hit following the announcement of tariffs by the US president on various countries, including the UK, which is expected to impact financial institutions and retailers negatively. Standard Chartered PLC faced considerable losses amid worries about the potential effects of these tariffs on economic expansion, while JD Sports Fashion also saw a sharp decrease. In contrast, utility companies such as Severn Trent and United Utilities demonstrated resilience and recorded gains, suggesting investors are shifting towards more stable sectors during this period of uncertainty.

GOLD is demonstrating a bullish trend, nearing its fifth straight week of gains, having surpassed record highs. This surge is largely fueled by investor anxiety related to newly imposed US tariffs and the retaliatory measures they have provoked. While a temporary dip occurred due to profit-taking and news regarding tariff exclusions, the underlying factors bolstering gold’s value remain strong. These include its appeal as a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainty, anticipation of potential interest rate cuts by central banks, continued purchasing by those same central banks, and robust investment activity in gold-backed exchange-traded funds. Market participants are now keenly focused on the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data, which could offer clues about the future course of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Asset Summary – Thursday, 3 April

GBPUSD faces downward pressure as recent economic data and government forecasts paint a less optimistic picture for the UK economy. Lower-than-expected inflation, though aligned with Bank of England forecasts, suggests a potential delay in interest rate hikes, diminishing the pound’s appeal. Further weighing on the currency are revised growth forecasts indicating a weaker economic outlook for 2025 coupled with increased borrowing for 2025-26 as this indicates continued fiscal strain. The government’s announced policy changes to restore the budget, while aimed at long-term stability, introduce uncertainty and could further dampen investor sentiment toward the pound in the short term.

EURUSD is exhibiting upward pressure due to several factors. Despite tariffs imposed by the U.S., the euro has strengthened against the dollar. This is partly because the tariffs themselves have weakened the dollar, as they intensify global trade conflict and raise concerns about economic expansion. Concurrently, cooling Eurozone inflation data, with headline and core inflation rates decreasing, suggest the European Central Bank might implement significant interest rate cuts. Increased anticipation of these cuts, amounting to a potential 65bps reduction, further fuels the euro’s relative strength against the dollar.

DOW JONES is expected to experience significant downward pressure following the announcement of new tariffs. The anticipation of a global trade war, triggered by increased levies on goods from China, the EU, Vietnam, and Cambodia, has sparked investor concern. This is reflected in the sharp decline of Dow futures and the poor performance of companies heavily reliant on imports or with extensive global supply chains, indicating a likely drop in the index’s value as markets open.

FTSE 100 experienced a decline, closing lower as market participants reacted to potential trade uncertainties stemming from anticipated tariff announcements. The overall negative sentiment, reflected in losses across European markets, weighed on the index. Specific sectors, particularly those represented by Rolls-Royce, Vodafone, GSK, and housebuilders Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey, contributed significantly to the downward pressure. Conversely, positive analyst sentiment towards Bunzl and gains in WPP provided some offsetting support. Merger and acquisition activity within the FTSE 250, exemplified by Bakkavor Group’s jump, highlights specific company-level events impacting the broader market landscape.

GOLD’s price has surged to a record peak amidst heightened risk aversion, primarily fueled by President Trump’s newly announced tariff policies impacting major economies. The prospect of widespread tariffs has created economic uncertainty, driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. Further bolstering its value are expectations of impending interest rate cuts by central banks, consistent purchasing activity by central banks themselves, and robust demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds, particularly in China. Recent weak economic data from the U.S., including disappointing jobs and manufacturing figures, have further intensified speculation about potential policy easing by the Federal Reserve, adding to the bullish sentiment surrounding gold. The upcoming nonfarm payrolls data will be closely watched for further clues about the Fed’s future actions.

Asset Summary – Wednesday, 2 April

GBPUSD is facing downward pressure due to a confluence of factors. Weaker-than-anticipated inflation data for February, coupled with revised economic forecasts presented in the Spring Statement, are weighing on the pound. Specifically, the upward revision of the 2025 inflation forecast, a downward revision of the 2025 growth forecast, and increased borrowing projections for 2025-26 are all contributing to a less optimistic outlook for the UK economy. Although the government has announced measures to address the budget deficit, the immediate impact of these announcements appears to be negative for the GBPUSD pair, as traders digest the implications of slower growth and persistent inflationary pressures.

EURUSD faces a complex outlook. The potential for broad US import tariffs is weighing heavily, pushing the euro down as these tariffs could negatively impact global trade and economic growth. Adding to the downside pressure, Eurozone inflation is cooling faster than expected, reinforcing expectations for substantial interest rate cuts by the ECB. This contrasts with the euro’s recent strength in the previous month, which was fueled by dollar weakness and Germany’s fiscal stimulus. The combination of potential US tariffs, lower Eurozone inflation and the expectation of ECB rate cuts are creating significant headwinds for the EURUSD pair despite recent euro gains.

DOW JONES faces a mixed outlook. Investors are cautiously awaiting the implementation of new tariffs, which could introduce uncertainty. The slight dip in the Dow Jones on Tuesday, in contrast to gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, suggests some vulnerability. While comments from the Treasury Secretary aim to provide reassurance, the actual impact of these tariffs remains to be seen. Additionally, concerns about the factory sector contraction and weaker-than-expected job openings could weigh on investor sentiment regarding the Dow’s performance.

FTSE 100 experienced a rebound, gaining approximately 0.6% to close at 8,635, offsetting losses from the prior session. This positive movement occurred against a backdrop of impending US tariffs and scrutiny of economic indicators. Manufacturing activity, as indicated by the UK PMI, remained weak, while house prices stagnated. Individual stocks exhibited varied performance; Rolls-Royce led the gains, while WPP PLC faced downward pressure due to revenue concerns. Overall, the market’s direction appears influenced by a combination of global trade anxieties and company-specific financial prospects.

GOLD is experiencing upward price pressure, propelled by anxieties surrounding potential US tariffs and the broader implications of a global trade conflict. The anticipation of interest rate reductions, coupled with central banks increasing their gold reserves and robust investment in gold-backed exchange-traded funds, also contribute to its increasing value. Recent economic data pointing to weakness in the US labor market and manufacturing sector further bolsters gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, with investors closely monitoring upcoming employment figures to gauge the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction.

Asset Summary – Tuesday, 1 April

GBPUSD is facing downward pressure as a result of recent economic data and the Spring Statement. Lower-than-expected inflation figures for February combined with revised economic forecasts paint a concerning picture for the UK economy. While inflation is easing, the upward revision of the 2025 inflation forecast to 3.2% alongside a reduced growth forecast of 1% suggests potential stagflation. The increase in projected borrowing for 2025-26 further exacerbates concerns. Despite government efforts to restore the budget through policy changes, the overall outlook indicates a weaker economic environment, likely contributing to the pound’s decline against the dollar.

EURUSD faces a complex outlook driven by opposing forces. While the euro has found stability around $1.08 and is poised for a strong monthly gain, largely due to a weaker dollar stemming from evolving U.S. trade policies and Germany’s fiscal stimulus, concerns surrounding eurozone inflation could limit its upside. The mixed bag of inflation data, with some countries experiencing declines while others see increases, reinforces expectations for significant ECB rate cuts. These cuts, while potentially stimulating economic growth, would also decrease the euro’s attractiveness relative to other currencies, especially if the Federal Reserve maintains a more hawkish stance. Therefore, EURUSD’s future performance hinges on the interplay between global trade dynamics, the ECB’s monetary policy decisions, and the comparative strength of the U.S. economy.

DOW JONES faces potential headwinds as investors react to President Trump’s anticipated tariff announcements, evident in the decline of US stock futures. Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced gains on Monday, broader market anxieties concerning economic growth and heightened trade friction, particularly stemming from Trump’s pledge of reciprocal tariffs, create an uncertain environment. The mixed performance among the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, with a majority showing declines, further contributes to the downward pressure, suggesting that the Dow’s ability to sustain upward momentum may be challenged in the short term.

FTSE 100 experienced a decline fueled by global market anxieties surrounding potential US tariffs and their broader economic consequences. The prospect of reciprocal tariffs impacted investor sentiment, particularly in sectors like mining, leading to significant share price drops for major players. Financial stocks also faced downward pressure as investors reduced their risk exposure. While defensive sectors provided some stability, overall market performance was negative. Corporate developments, including leadership changes and funding negotiations at key companies, added to the mixed signals. Despite a positive first quarter, the index faced a notable drop in value over the month of March, indicating volatility and caution among investors.

GOLD is exhibiting a bullish trend, driven by anxieties surrounding potential global trade conflicts sparked by impending tariffs. This uncertainty is pushing investors toward gold as a safe haven, contributing to its record-breaking price. Supporting this surge are factors like expectations of interest rate cuts, central bank acquisitions of gold, and robust exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand. Upcoming labor market data releases will be closely scrutinized for further indications of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction, potentially influencing future gold valuations.

Asset Summary – Monday, 31 March

GBPUSD is facing downward pressure due to a combination of factors. Weaker-than-anticipated inflation figures for February suggest a potentially less hawkish stance from the Bank of England, which could diminish the pound’s appeal. Furthermore, revised economic forecasts, including a higher inflation projection for 2025 and a reduced growth forecast, paint a less optimistic picture of the UK economy. Although borrowing is expected to decline overall in the coming years, the upward revision for 2025-26 borrowing adds to concerns about the government’s fiscal management. These economic headwinds are likely contributing to the pound’s recent decline against the dollar.

EURUSD is exhibiting a mixed outlook due to countervailing forces. While dollar weakness stemming from trade war escalations provides upward pressure, the looming threat of US tariffs on European automobiles poses a significant downside risk, especially for the German economy, a major exporter to the US. The European Union’s expected retaliatory tariffs could further exacerbate the economic strain, potentially weakening the euro. Additionally, the ECB’s recent interest rate cut and signals of further easing measures by ECB officials also contribute to a potentially weaker euro, suggesting a complex and uncertain trajectory for the currency pair.

DOW JONES faces potential downward pressure as investors react to upcoming tariffs and trade policy announcements from President Trump. The anticipated imposition of a 25% tariff on imported cars and plans for reciprocal trade duties have sparked concerns about potential retaliation from trading partners, which could negatively impact the US economy and therefore impact the index’s value. The recent decline in major stock indexes, including a 0.96% drop in the Dow, reflects this apprehension. Furthermore, Trump’s dismissive attitude towards potential price increases by foreign automakers and reported pressure on advisors to adopt a more aggressive trade stance add to the uncertainty. Investors will likely closely monitor this week’s jobs report and corporate earnings releases from companies like PVH, Restoration Hardware, and Constellation Brands for further signals about the market’s direction.

FTSE 100 has demonstrated substantial growth year-to-date, with a significant increase of 5.34% representing a 437-point gain. This positive movement, observed through CFD trading, suggests a bullish trend in the UK’s leading stock market index since the start of 2025, indicating improved investor sentiment and potentially stronger economic performance within the UK market.

GOLD’s record-breaking price reflects a significant increase in investor demand, spurred by global economic and political uncertainties. Escalating trade tensions initiated by the U.S., coupled with threats of tariffs and military action against Russia and Iran, are heightening concerns about international stability, thus increasing Gold’s appeal as a safe harbor for investment. Furthermore, evolving expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy, specifically a potential reduction in the number of anticipated interest rate cuts, are contributing to a more favorable environment for the precious metal as the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset decreases.

Asset Summary – Friday, 28 March

GBPUSD is facing downward pressure due to a combination of factors. Lower-than-expected inflation figures for February suggest a potentially slower pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of England, reducing the pound’s appeal to investors. Furthermore, revised economic forecasts from the Spring Statement paint a less optimistic picture, with higher expected inflation for 2025 and reduced growth projections. Although the government is working to reduce public sector borrowing, increased borrowing for 2025-26 compared to previous estimates adds to the negative sentiment surrounding the UK economy and its currency.

EURUSD faces a complex and potentially volatile outlook. The euro’s recent gains against the dollar, fueled by general dollar weakness, could be short-lived given the escalating trade tensions. The US’s proposed tariffs on European automobiles, coupled with threats of further tariffs, present a significant downside risk for the Eurozone economy, particularly Germany, a major exporter of vehicles. This economic pressure could ultimately weaken the euro. Furthermore, the ECB’s recent interest rate cut and signals of possible further easing suggest a dovish monetary policy stance, which could also weigh on the currency. While the EU intends to retaliate with tariffs, this tit-for-tat approach is likely to create further economic uncertainty and may not be enough to support the EURUSD in the long run.

DOW JONES faces potential downward pressure as investors react to a confluence of factors. The anticipation of the PCE price index report is creating uncertainty, particularly given the Federal Reserve’s recent inflation forecast adjustments and concerns about the impact of tariffs on monetary policy. Broader market weakness, as evidenced by Thursday’s decline and sector-specific losses in energy, communication services, and technology, suggests a cautious trading environment. The imposition of auto tariffs by President Trump, and the negative reaction of major automakers like General Motors and Ford, further clouds the outlook for the Dow Jones. Lululemon’s disappointing forecast adds to the negative sentiment, indicating potential weakness beyond the automotive sector.

FTSE 100 experienced a decline, influenced by global trade concerns and specific corporate actions. President Trump’s newly imposed tariffs, particularly on auto imports, appear to have weighed on investor sentiment, mirroring a broader regional trend. While Chancellor Reeves acknowledged the sensitivity of US-UK trade discussions, the lack of immediate retaliatory plans from the UK may have provided some stability. Individual stock performance within the index varied, with some companies experiencing losses due to going ex-dividend, while others, like Next, saw significant gains following positive financial results, creating mixed pressures within the FTSE 100.

GOLD is currently experiencing a significant upward trend, fueled by anxieties surrounding international trade relations and the potential for a global economic slowdown. The anticipation of new tariffs imposed by the United States and the subsequent threats of retaliation from other major economies are driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, increased purchasing activity by central banks and growing investment in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are contributing to the rising price. The upcoming release of US economic data, particularly the PCE index, will be closely watched as it could influence the Federal Reserve’s future decisions regarding interest rate adjustments, potentially adding further momentum to gold’s price trajectory. This combination of factors suggests a bullish outlook for gold in the near term.