Category: Commodities

Asset Summary – Thursday, 2 October

GBPUSD is exhibiting upward pressure, primarily driven by a weakening US dollar amid concerns surrounding a potential US government shutdown. The Bank of England’s recent decision to hold interest rates steady, coupled with market expectations of no rate cuts until 2026, further supports the pound’s value. However, the mixed signals from BoE officials regarding inflation and the appropriate level of interest rates introduce some uncertainty. Investors are also monitoring potential tax policy changes from Chancellor Reeves, as these could impact the UK’s fiscal outlook and ultimately affect the pound. This combination of factors suggests a complex trading environment where dollar weakness and BoE policy are counterbalanced by domestic fiscal concerns and divergent opinions among policymakers.

EURUSD is likely to experience upward pressure. Eurozone inflation data exceeding expectations strengthens the euro, particularly against a backdrop of a weakening US dollar due to disappointing employment figures and a government shutdown. The increased inflation makes it less likely the European Central Bank will cut interest rates in the near term, as suggested by recent statements from ECB officials. This hawkish sentiment regarding interest rates, combined with a weaker dollar, supports a potential rise in the EURUSD exchange rate.

DOW JONES saw a slight gain in the previous session and futures trading indicates a continuation of this stability. The market appears resilient, seemingly unaffected by both the government shutdown and weaker-than-expected private payroll data. Positive sentiment around pharmaceutical stocks, spurred by policy developments, might further contribute to upward pressure, although the absence of the September nonfarm payrolls report due to the shutdown introduces an element of uncertainty.

FTSE 100 experienced a significant surge, reaching a new high, primarily fueled by a substantial rally in pharmaceutical stocks. The agreement between Pfizer and the Trump administration regarding drug pricing provided a boost to the sector, sparking optimism for other pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, positive performance from JD Sports, influenced by Nike’s better-than-expected sales figures, contributed to the index’s gains. Steady UK house prices, indicating a potential strengthening in the market, further supported the positive sentiment. In the US, economic factors such as a weak ADP report and the ongoing government shutdown are influencing investor expectations regarding future Federal Reserve policy.

GOLD is exhibiting resilience near record highs, buoyed by anticipation of Federal Reserve rate reductions and its traditional role as a safe store of value. A weaker-than-expected report on private-sector employment supports the view that the Federal Reserve might maintain or even accelerate its interest rate cuts, diminishing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding the delayed nonfarm payrolls report and the ongoing government shutdown are driving investors toward gold as a hedge against potential economic instability. A Supreme Court ruling potentially diminishing the perception of political influence on the Fed could provide some offset to the factors currently supporting higher gold prices.

Asset Summary – Wednesday, 1 October

GBPUSD is currently demonstrating positive momentum, having appreciated to a rate of 1.3460. This reflects a daily gain of 0.13%, indicating a slight upward trend in the short term. Looking at a broader perspective, the Pound has exhibited strengthening over the past month and year, with gains of 0.59% and 1.49% respectively. This suggests a potentially bullish outlook for the currency pair, as the British Pound seems to be holding its value and gaining ground against the US Dollar over both the short and long term.

EURUSD is poised to potentially increase in value. Rising inflation figures across major Eurozone economies are bolstering the euro as they suggest the European Central Bank (ECB) is less likely to cut interest rates in the near term. Stronger inflation in Germany, France, and Spain, coupled with consistent inflation in Italy, is expected to drive Eurozone inflation to a five-month high. This inflationary pressure, while partly attributed to factors the ECB may disregard, could still prompt them to hold steady on current interest rates. Simultaneously, a weakening dollar, spurred by anxieties regarding a potential US government shutdown, further supports the euro’s upward trajectory against the dollar.

DOW JONES is facing potential headwinds as US stock futures indicate a slight dip, influenced by anxieties surrounding a possible government shutdown. The political impasse in Congress introduces uncertainty, potentially delaying important economic data releases like the nonfarm payrolls report, which could impact Federal Reserve policy decisions. While the Dow, along with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, demonstrated positive performance in September and the third quarter, the looming shutdown and its consequences could dampen investor enthusiasm. Positive corporate news, such as Nike’s strong earnings, might offer some support, but the overall sentiment suggests a cautious approach for the Dow in the short term.

FTSE 100 is displaying positive momentum, evidenced by recent gains fueled by a strong performance in mining stocks. This upward trend coincides with encouraging Q2 GDP figures and upward revisions to annual growth, signaling a potentially strengthening UK economy. However, rising shop price inflation and potential cost pressures from upcoming packaging taxes present challenges. Divergent performance among major constituents, with gains in HSBC, AstraZeneca, Unilever and Relx contrasting with declines in Shell and BP due to fluctuating crude prices, suggests a market navigating mixed signals. The potential for higher OPEC+ output and geopolitical developments could further influence trading activity.

GOLD is experiencing upward pressure, propelled by the increased appeal of safe-haven assets amidst fears of a potential US government shutdown. The failure of the Senate to approve funding extensions, coupled with anticipated workforce reductions, is fueling uncertainty. The duration of any shutdown is a key concern, as delays in economic data releases like the nonfarm payrolls report could complicate the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions. Simultaneously, signs of a cooling US labor market, such as slightly increased job openings but slower hiring, are reinforcing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, further bolstering the price of gold as investors seek alternative stores of value. Traders are currently anticipating a high likelihood of rate reductions, contributing to the bullish sentiment surrounding gold.

Asset Summary – Tuesday, 30 September

GBPUSD experienced a boost after Chancellor Reeves’ speech, yet the market’s reaction remains cautious until the Budget provides specific policy details. The pound’s rise to $1.343 suggests initial optimism regarding Labour’s commitment to fiscal responsibility and regional investment. However, broader economic concerns, including a projected slowdown in growth and persistent inflation significantly above the Bank of England’s target, could limit further gains. Furthermore, the external pressure of a potential U.S. government shutdown adds volatility, weighing down the dollar and potentially creating temporary upward pressure on the GBPUSD, even though the overall economic outlook for the UK may constrain its strength.

EURUSD faces a complex and uncertain outlook. While the anticipation of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts could weaken the dollar and potentially bolster the euro, strong US economic data may temper these expectations. In Europe, the potential end of the ECB’s easing policy could strengthen the euro, however, mixed economic signals and a deepening manufacturing slump may limit this effect. The introduction of new trade tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding their impact on both the European and US economies adds further volatility, potentially leading to unpredictable movements in the EURUSD exchange rate.

DOW JONES is currently exhibiting a slightly positive trend, with futures indicating little change following a strong start to the week. The index experienced a gain of 0.15% on Monday and is on track to finish September with a 1.7% increase. While concerns regarding AI-related investments and potential economic challenges have created some pressure, optimism remains regarding the long-term earnings potential of the tech sector, which appears to be contributing positively to the Dow’s performance. The looming possibility of a government shutdown adds a layer of uncertainty that could potentially impact the index in the short term.

FTSE 100 experienced an overall positive trading day despite initial downward pressure, ultimately closing with gains. The performance was largely driven by strong showings from mining companies, boosted by rising copper prices, and pharmaceutical giants. Leadership changes and promising drug development pipelines at GSK, coupled with AstraZeneca’s strategic US listing plans, contributed to investor confidence in the pharma sector. Conversely, energy stocks faced headwinds due to declining oil prices, and several other prominent companies experienced declines. The reaffirmation of fiscal policy and infrastructure commitments by the Chancellor provided a backdrop of economic stability.

GOLD is experiencing a surge in value, driven by multiple factors that are increasing its appeal as a safe-haven asset. The looming possibility of a US government shutdown, stemming from failed funding negotiations, is creating uncertainty and prompting investors to seek stability in gold. This situation is compounded by the impending implementation of new US tariffs, which further fuels market anxieties. Additionally, expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, supported by recent economic data, are diminishing the attractiveness of interest-bearing investments and boosting demand for gold. These converging factors are contributing to significant gains in gold prices, making it a potentially lucrative asset for traders in the current climate.

Asset Summary – Monday, 29 September

GBPUSD faces downward pressure due to a combination of factors. The Bank of England’s uncertain policy stance, with differing views on interest rate cuts among policymakers, creates volatility. Persistently high UK inflation adds to the economic headwinds. Furthermore, political proposals involving significant borrowing and potential nationalization contribute to market unease, specifically impacting gilt yields. The pound’s weakness is exacerbated by a strengthening US dollar, driven by positive US economic data that reduces expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This confluence of domestic and international factors suggests a challenging outlook for the currency pair.

EURUSD faces a complex and uncertain outlook. The euro’s recent dip below $1.17 reflects the tug-of-war between diverging monetary policies and evolving trade dynamics. While the expectation of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could weigh on the dollar, the US economy’s apparent strength might counter this pressure. Conversely, the anticipated end of the European Central Bank’s easing cycle may offer some support to the euro, although the mixed economic signals from Europe, particularly the manufacturing sector’s struggles, create headwinds. Furthermore, escalating trade tensions, including potential tariffs on both pharmaceutical products and steel imports, introduce a significant element of volatility and could impact the relative attractiveness of both currencies. These crosscurrents suggest a period of choppy trading for the pair as markets attempt to price in these competing factors.

DOW JONES faces a mixed outlook as it begins the week with flat futures after a slight decline in the previous week. While the broader market experienced a cooling of the AI rally and concerns regarding Federal Reserve rate cut expectations due to robust economic data, the Dow has demonstrated resilience. Investors are awaiting crucial employment data later in the week which could sway sentiment. Despite recent headwinds, the Dow is currently positioned to conclude September with a gain.

FTSE 100 is demonstrating positive momentum, having reached 9285 points on September 26, 2025, marking a 0.77% increase from the prior trading day. Recent performance indicates steady growth, with a 0.32% rise over the last month. Furthermore, the index exhibits substantial gains year-over-year, showing an 11.59% appreciation compared to the corresponding period in the previous year, reflecting overall positive market sentiment within the UK’s leading companies.

GOLD is experiencing upward price pressure, reaching record highs due to several interconnected factors. A weakening US dollar makes gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies. Anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve further supports gold, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Economic data releases, particularly inflation figures, are reinforcing expectations of these rate cuts. However, uncertainty remains, with investors closely watching upcoming economic indicators to gauge the overall health of the US economy. The possibility of a US government shutdown and newly announced tariffs are adding to economic anxieties, potentially driving investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset.

Asset Summary – Friday, 26 September

GBPUSD faces downward pressure driven by several factors. Discrepancies within the Bank of England regarding the timing of interest rate cuts create uncertainty, especially considering the UK’s high inflation rate compared to other G7 nations. Proposed large-scale borrowing plans by political figures introduce fiscal instability and potential disruption in gilt markets, further weakening investor confidence in the pound. Additionally, a robust US economy, as indicated by revised GDP figures, strengthens the dollar and diminishes expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, exacerbating the pound’s decline against the dollar. This confluence of economic and political headwinds points towards continued weakness for the GBPUSD pair.

EURUSD is currently experiencing positive momentum, having increased in value to 1.1677 in the latest session. This represents a gain of 0.13% compared to the previous day’s trading. Looking at longer-term trends, the EUR/USD pair has appreciated by 0.25% over the past month, and a more substantial 4.60% over the last year, suggesting a generally bullish outlook for the currency pair.

DOW JONES faces headwinds as investors await the PCE price index to better understand the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions. Recent stronger-than-expected US economic data, including lower jobless claims and revised higher GDP growth, have dampened hopes for significant Fed rate cuts, contributing to a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield and adding pressure to stocks. The Dow’s recent decline, along with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, suggests a cautious market sentiment, with nine of the eleven S&P sectors experiencing losses, indicating broad market weakness. The performance of the PCE index will likely dictate short-term trading activity.

FTSE 100 experienced downward pressure due to significant losses in major constituents like AstraZeneca and HSBC, offsetting gains in the mining sector driven by increased copper prices. ConvaTec’s sharp decline, triggered by US investigations, further weighed on the index. Halma’s positive revenue guidance provided some support, but overall sentiment was tempered by political uncertainty surrounding potential policy shifts and a stronger-than-expected US GDP revision, which reduced anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts. This combination of factors suggests a cautious near-term outlook for the index, with potential volatility driven by both domestic and global economic developments.

GOLD is facing downward pressure as a stronger US dollar, fueled by positive economic data, reduces the likelihood of imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. This diminished prospect for rate cuts is dampening investor enthusiasm for gold. However, the potential negative impact is being somewhat offset by renewed safe-haven demand arising from escalating trade tensions, specifically the announcement of new tariffs by the US government. Traders are keenly awaiting the release of the PCE price index, a crucial inflation indicator, which will likely provide more clarity on the future path of monetary policy and, consequently, influence gold’s price trajectory.

Asset Summary – Thursday, 25 September

GBPUSD experienced a slight increase, gaining 0.05% to reach 1.3457 on September 25, 2025. Examining recent performance, the currency pair demonstrates mixed signals. While there has been a marginal decline of 0.15% over the past month, suggesting some short-term weakness, the overall trend for the year remains positive, with a 0.35% increase. This indicates that despite recent dips, the British Pound has generally strengthened against the US Dollar over the past year, potentially pointing to continued, albeit possibly volatile, trading patterns.

EURUSD faces downward pressure as disappointing German economic data, specifically the decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index, weakens the euro. While Eurozone private sector activity shows mixed signals, with services expanding and manufacturing contracting, the overall sentiment remains fragile. Adding to the uncertainty is the anticipation of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in October, fueled by cautious remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding inflation and labor market conditions. The market’s focus now shifts to the upcoming US PCE price index, which will likely provide further direction for the pair based on its impact on Fed policy expectations. This creates a complex environment where the euro’s weakness combined with potential dollar strength could lead to further declines in the EURUSD exchange rate.

DOW JONES faces a potentially challenging period as indicated by recent market trends. The index experienced a slight decline, mirroring broader market pullbacks influenced by anxieties surrounding AI stock valuations and profit-taking after reaching record highs. Concerns voiced by the Federal Reserve regarding persistent inflation and elevated equity prices add to the uncertainty. The upcoming jobless claims data will be closely scrutinized for insights into the direction of interest rates, which could significantly impact investor sentiment and, consequently, the Dow’s performance. Intel’s potential deal with Apple, while positive for Intel, does not appear to have provided a significant boost to the overall market sentiment reflected in the Dow.

FTSE 100 experienced upward movement, surpassing the performance of other major European indices, primarily fueled by significant gains in the copper mining sector. The increase in copper prices, triggered by supply concerns in the global market, greatly benefited Antofagasta due to its specialization in copper production, and to a lesser extent boosted other diversified miners. Further support came from gains in the defence sector, possibly linked to geopolitical concerns. Offsetting some of these gains was a decline in JD Sports shares, which reflected potential consumer spending concerns, indicating a mixed performance overall with commodity-related stocks driving the positive trend.

GOLD’s price is navigating a complex environment influenced by conflicting forces. The Federal Reserve’s uncertain monetary policy, underscored by differing opinions among officials regarding future rate cuts, creates volatility. Stronger-than-anticipated housing data suggests economic resilience, potentially diminishing the urgency for rate cuts, which would typically support gold. However, geopolitical instability, fueled by escalating tensions involving Russia and Ukraine, provides a counterbalance, bolstering gold’s safe-haven appeal and preventing a significant price decline. Therefore, gold’s trajectory is likely to be dictated by the interplay between economic indicators influencing the Fed’s decisions and the persistence of global geopolitical risks.

Asset Summary – Wednesday, 24 September

GBPUSD faces downward pressure as recent economic data paints a concerning picture for the UK economy. Lower than anticipated PMI figures signal a slowdown in private sector activity, particularly in manufacturing, weakening the outlook for economic growth. Increased government borrowing, exceeding expectations, raises worries about fiscal sustainability and limits the government’s ability to stimulate the economy. Coupled with the Bank of England’s cautious approach to interest rate cuts, the combination of these factors suggests limited upside potential for the pound against the dollar in the near term.

EURUSD faces a complex and potentially volatile outlook. The slightly improved Eurozone PMI data, driven by services, offers some support, suggesting a degree of economic resilience. However, the manufacturing sector’s contraction and the mixed performance across different Eurozone countries, particularly the French weakness, introduce uncertainty. The ECB’s cautious stance on further rate cuts, driven by persistent inflation concerns, could limit the euro’s downside. Ultimately, the direction of EURUSD will likely depend on upcoming pronouncements from ECB and Federal Reserve officials, which will shape expectations regarding future monetary policy in both regions.

DOW JONES faces a potentially challenging trading day after a slight dip in the previous session. Investors are processing comments from the Federal Reserve, which injects caution into the market, and questioning whether the recent surge fueled by artificial intelligence is sustainable. High market valuations may prompt investors to sell and secure profits. The retreat of major technology stocks, including Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, Oracle, Microsoft, and Meta, signals a possible sector-wide pullback that could weigh on the Dow’s performance. However, positive earnings from Micron Technology after the bell could offer some counter-balance and potentially mitigate downward pressure.

FTSE 100’s performance is being influenced by a mix of factors creating a somewhat neutral outlook. Weaker than anticipated PMI data suggests a slowing of economic activity within the UK, potentially dampening investor enthusiasm. The OECD’s revised growth projection, while positive, is tempered by concerns over a higher-than-average inflation rate. Individual stock movements are also impacting the index, with gains in companies like Kingfisher, stemming from positive company specific news, being offset by losses in major constituents such as AstraZeneca and British American Tobacco, along with profit-taking in Smiths Group.

GOLD is experiencing upward pressure, fueled by a confluence of factors. Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate adjustments in response to both inflation and a softening labor market, is pushing investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Geopolitical instability, evidenced by recent Russian actions and NATO’s response, further bolsters its appeal. Moreover, strong demand from exchange-traded funds, indicated by significant inflows, is contributing to the metal’s price appreciation and suggesting continued investor confidence. These elements collectively suggest a potentially bullish outlook for gold in the near term, pending upcoming economic data and further clarity on central bank policy.