Category: Gold

  • Gold Bulls Eye $4,600 as Real Yields Plunge – Friday, 22 May

    Where we are: Gold is currently trading around $4,520, consolidating gains after a choppy overnight session. Bullion found support near $4,490, holding above the prior NY close of $4,515, and is testing resistance near the $4,530 level as Europe unwinds.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver for gold remains the continued slide in US real yields. The 10-year TIPS yield has fallen another 5 basis points to 2.13%, providing a significant tailwind for bullion. While oil-driven inflation fears might ordinarily bolster rate-hike bets and weigh on gold, breakeven inflation also fell 5bp yesterday, leaving the real rate the dominant driver today. The modestly long speculative positioning in gold, though not at an extreme, offers some room for further upside should real yields continue their descent.

    • US 10Y Real Yields falling 5bp provides a strong incentive to bid gold.
    • Falling Breakeven Inflation neuters the oil-inflation fear rate-hike narrative.
    • Net non-commercial positioning is only at the 29th percentile suggesting more room to build long positions.

    NY session focus: The 10:00 ET release of the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment data will be the key event to watch in the NY session. A significantly weaker-than-expected print could further pressure real yields and send gold toward the $4,600 level. Conversely, a strong reading could trigger a retracement back towards $4,500. The trade to watch is the ongoing real-yield sensitivity. The pain trade here is a sudden reversal in oil prices, reigniting inflation fears and triggering a sharp rise in nominal yields, leaving gold exposed.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Thursday, 21 May

    Regime: Risk-off, fueled by rising real yields and renewed Iran tensions, with VIX at 18.06 and DXY bid.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Oil shock revival: Geopolitical tensions around Iran exacerbate supply concerns, driving crude higher.
    • Rates repricing: Dimon’s hawkish comments reinforce the potential for higher-for-longer, lifting Treasury yields.
    • Mixed PMI signals: Eurozone and UK PMIs offer a mixed bag, with services sector weakness raising growth concerns.

    The setup: Renewed geopolitical risks are stoking inflation fears and pushing real yields higher, putting pressure on risk assets. Look for opportunities to fade rallies in equities, especially tech. Watch the 10Y real yield at 2.18% as a key level. Initial weakness in Dow futures around 39,850 offers a possible short entry.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 11:30 AEST AUD: Employment Change (forecast 16.7K, prior 17.9K)
    • 09:15 CET EUR: French Flash Manufacturing PMI (forecast 52.1, prior 52.8)
    • 09:30 London GBP: Flash Services PMI (forecast 51.7, prior 52.0)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Fed policy uncertainty, strong US yields
      • Cross: Risk-off sentiment, safe-haven demand
      • Levels: Resistance 119.50, support 119.00
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (EU): Weak Eurozone PMIs, ECB dovishness
      • Cross: Strong DXY, widening US-DE 10Y spread, risk-off flows
      • Levels: Resistance 1.1620, support 1.1580
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (UK): Mixed UK PMIs, uncertainty around BoE path
      • Cross: Strong DXY, US-UK 10Y spread, risk aversion
      • Levels: Resistance 1.2660, support 1.2600
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ caution, intervention risk remains high
      • Cross: Rising US 10Y yields, DXY strength, risk sentiment
      • Levels: Resistance 159.50, support 159.00
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): BoC cautious tone, WTI volatility
      • Cross: Strong DXY, US-CA 10Y spread
      • Levels: Resistance 1.3820, support 1.3750
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (AU): Mixed labour data, RBA tightening path uncertain
      • Cross: Strong DXY, US-AU 10Y spread, China growth concerns
      • Levels: Resistance 0.6680, support 0.6620
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ easing bias
      • Cross: Strong DXY, US-NZ 10Y spread, risk-off sentiment
      • Levels: Resistance 0.5900, support 0.5850
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB dovishness, Swiss yields lagging
      • Cross: Strong DXY, safe-haven demand
      • Levels: Resistance 0.7900, support 0.7850
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral; EUR/JPY: Bearish; GBP/JPY: Bearish
      • Domestic: Relative ECB/BoE/BoJ stance, relative yields
      • Cross: DXY, risk regime, cross-of-crosses dynamics
      • Levels: Monitor key supports/resistances on charts
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields, CB demand waning
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk aversion not fully supportive
      • Levels: Resistance $4,510, support $4,480
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Slower industrial demand growth
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk-off sentiment
      • Levels: Follow Gold
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Iran tensions / potential supply disruption
      • Cross: DXY offsetting factor, risk-off a moderate headwind
      • Levels: WTI Resistance $102, Support $98
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth concerns, LME inventories stable
      • Cross: Strong DXY, global growth proxy
      • Levels: Follow market trend, trade in accordance with real yields.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Rising yields, earnings headwinds
      • Cross: Elevated VIX, global risk-off
      • Levels: Futures resistance 5300, cash support 5250
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Real yield sensitivity, mixed earnings
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity, elevated VIX
      • Levels: Follow SPX general resistance and support level
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical headwinds, rising yields
      • Cross: Bond-yield reaction
      • Levels: Follow SPX general resistance and support level
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling strength, mixed PMI data, commodity exposure
      • Cross: Global risk, US tone
      • Levels: Resistance 10,400, support 10,350
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (DE): Weak German PMIs, Bund yield increase
      • Cross: US tech, DXY, risk-off
      • Levels: Resistance is high, monitor yield trend
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): Cautious BOJ commentary, JGB yield focus
      • Cross: US tech reaction, global risk
      • Levels: Follow global risk sentiment
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flows slowing, funding rates stable
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk-off, Nasdaq correlation
      • Levels: Resistance $68,000, support $67,500

    Positioning watch: AUD, Copper, and US Dollar are crowded longs (>80th percentile), creating squeeze risk on any positive surprises or a shift in sentiment. Nasdaq 100 and Japanese Yen are crowded shorts (<20th percentile), risking a sharp rally on positive catalysts.

    The pain trade: A dovish pivot from a Fed speaker today would trigger a violent short squeeze in Nasdaq and Yen, simultaneously undermining the DXY.

  • Gold Under Pressure as Real Yields Climb – Thursday, 21 May

    Where we are: Gold is trading around $4,495 an ounce, modestly weaker after an overnight range of $4,480-$4,510. The yellow metal is struggling to hold ground, pressured by a stronger dollar and rising real yields, and trading below yesterday’s NY close.

    What’s driving it: Rising US real yields are the primary headwind for gold. The 10-year TIPS yield has climbed to 2.18%, adding 5bp to the downside pressure as market participants increasingly anticipate that the Fed may be required to sustain or even tighten policy if inflation proves to be more persistent than anticipated. The pullback in 10Y breakevens, down 5bp to 2.44%, further reinforces this dynamic. Rising yields are amplified by a stronger dollar, with the broad USD index climbing to 119.28.

    • Barr’s speech on financial health reinforces the Fed’s current focus on price stability, reducing the likelihood of dovish pivot.
    • Speculator positioning remains modestly long, with net non-commercial positions at +171,622 contracts, leaving gold exposed to potential liquidation if the current downtrend persists.
    • The increasing likelihood of continued armed conflict in the Middle East is supporting oil; Goldman Sachs notes oil stockpiles are falling at a record pace.

    NY session focus: The key event risk for gold today is the 08:30 ET release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims, followed by Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs at 09:45 ET. A strong showing in these indicators could accelerate the rise in yields and further pressure gold. Watch for a break below $4,480, which could open the door to a test of $4,450. The trade that’s working is shorting gold on rallies. The at-risk trade is dip-buying. The pain trade for gold is a sudden dovish shift from the Fed combined with escalating geopolitical risks that would reignite inflation fears and demand for safe-haven assets.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Wednesday, 20 May

    Regime: Mixed — the VIX at 17.82 suggests a moderately risk-on environment, but rising US 10Y real yields near 2.13% offset the positive sentiment.

    Today’s market themes:

    • FOMC Minutes: focus on the Fed’s inflation outlook and rate-cut timeline.
    • Iran tensions: geopolitical risks weigh on oil and broader sentiment.
    • Nvidia earnings: potential market catalyst, could affirm rally or spur correction.

    The setup: All eyes on the FOMC Minutes at 2 PM ET. The market is pricing in minimal rate cuts this year. Hawkish surprises in the minutes could strengthen the dollar and pressure risk assets. A dovish surprise could weaken the dollar and boost stocks and bonds. Watch the 2Y yield for reaction.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 07:00 London [High] GBP: CPI y/y (forecast 3.0%, prior 3.3%)
    • 11:30 AEST [High] AUD: Employment Change (forecast 16.7K, prior 17.9K)
    • 14:00 ET [High] USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): FOMC minutes could provide hawkish catalysts.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment shifts amid Nvidia earnings anticipation.
      • Levels: Support at 119.00; resistance at 119.50.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (EU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength and rising US yields pressure the pair.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.0830; support at 1.0780.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): CPI miss fueled gilt buying – focus on MPC hearings.
      • Cross: DXY strength and risk appetite weigh on cable.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.2700; support at 1.2650.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ dovish stance and weak wage data.
      • Cross: US 10Y yield strength and DXY provide tailwinds.
      • Levels: Support at 158.50; resistance at 160.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CA): BoC cautious outlook and weak CPI.
      • Cross: DXY strength and weaker oil prices pressure CAD.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3750; resistance at 1.3800.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (AU): RBA cautious stance on inflation. Employment data in focus.
      • Cross: DXY strength and China growth concerns weigh.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.6700; support at 0.6630.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ dovish stance after recent meetings.
      • Cross: DXY strength and risk-off sentiment impact the Kiwi.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.5860; support at 0.5800.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB easing bias supports USD/CHF upside.
      • Cross: DXY strength and risk-off flows support pair.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7850; resistance at 0.7950.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP Bearish, EUR/JPY Bullish, GBP/JPY Bullish.
      • Domestic: Relative CB policy (BoE more hawkish than ECB; BoJ more dovish).
      • Cross: DXY strength weighing on EUR/GBP; risk-on supporting JPY crosses.
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: 0.8480/0.8530; EUR/JPY: 170.00/171.00; GBP/JPY: 193.50/194.50.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields increase the opportunity cost.
      • Cross: DXY strength weighs on Gold.
      • Levels: Resistance at $4,480/oz; support at $4,450/oz.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Weaker industrial demand prospects.
      • Cross: DXY strength and risk-off environment are headwinds.
      • Levels: Resistance at $32.00/oz; support at $31.50/oz.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Iran talks and Ukraine refinery attack priced in.
      • Cross: DXY strength and mixed risk sentiment.
      • Levels: WTI: $100/$103; Brent: $108/$111.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Wait for new China catalyst to lift LME stocks.
      • Cross: DXY and global growth prospects.
      • Levels: Resistance at $5.15; support at $5.00.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): Earnings season nearing end; Fed policy key.
      • Cross: VIX stable, global sentiment depends on Nvidia.
      • Levels: Futures 5300/5340; cash support 5280/5320.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): Nvidia earnings key; real yield reaction impacts valuation.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity and VIX.
      • Levels: 19250/19450.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): Awaiting for more industrials to show positive earnings.
      • Cross: Bond-yield reaction to FOMC minutes.
      • Levels: 39700/39900.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling swings impacting export-heavy index.
      • Cross: Global risk and US tone.
      • Levels: 10200/10300.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (DE): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US tech and DXY.
      • Levels: 24300/24500.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness continues, JGB yields drive sentiment.
      • Cross: US tech and risk regime.
      • Levels: 59500/60000.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flows holding steady, no major funding stress.
      • Cross: DXY and risk sentiment influencing Bitcoin’s price action.
      • Levels: 65000/68000.

    Positioning watch: Crowded longs in AUD and Copper (98th percentile) and crowded shorts in Nasdaq (0th percentile) and JPY (8th percentile) suggest squeeze risks if data improves or Fed turns dovish. Dollar long also extended (85th %ile) exposes downside on risk-on turn.

    The pain trade: A dovish surprise in the FOMC minutes would trigger a short squeeze in Nasdaq, fuel a rally in beaten-down gold, and weaken the dollar, hurting those positioned for higher rates.

  • Gold Under Pressure as Real Yields Rise – Wednesday, 20 May

    Where we are: Gold is under pressure, currently trading near $4,465/oz, consolidating losses from the previous session. Overnight, XAU traded in a relatively tight range, failing to break above $4,500. The current level is well below the prior NY close, suggesting further downside potential if momentum continues.

    What’s driving it: The primary headwind for gold remains the steady rise in US real yields. The 10-year TIPS yield is currently at 2.13%, up 3bp from Monday, making the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold more expensive. This is compounded by a slight increase in 10-year breakeven inflation, now at 2.49%, suggesting inflation expectations are not rising fast enough to offset the increase in real yields. Fresh comments from various BIS central bankers are unlikely to provide a tailwind, focused more on broader geo-economic issues and artificial intelligence.

    • US 10Y Real Yield is up 3.0bp d/d as of 2026-05-18, a clear headwind for gold.
    • 10Y Breakeven Inflation is only up 1.0bp d/d, failing to offset the real yield increase.
    • Speculator positioning in gold remains modestly long, with net non-commercial positions at +171,622 contracts, sitting at the 29th percentile, leaving some room for further liquidation.

    NY session focus: The key event for the NY session is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 ET. Traders will be scrutinizing the minutes for any clues about the Fed’s future policy path and its tolerance for inflation. Watch for a break below $4,450, which could trigger further selling toward $4,400. The trade that’s working right now is shorting XAU/USD on rallies. The biggest risk is a dovish surprise in the FOMC minutes, which could send real yields lower and trigger a sharp rally in gold. The pain trade is a surprise dovish tilt from the Fed causing a rapid short covering rally.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Tuesday, 19 May

    Regime: Mixed — VIX at 18.43 signals ongoing unease, but rising US yields underpin USD strength, offsetting risk aversion.

    Today’s market themes:

    • USD dominance: Rising US yields and safe-haven demand continue to buoy the Dollar across the board.
    • Inflation watch: Canadian CPI data offers key test for BoC rate-cut expectations.
    • Positioning unwind: Crowded longs in AUD and Copper face disappointment risk from China slowdown fears.

    The setup: The market is pricing in a hawkish Fed, driving the USD higher, with USD/JPY approaching multi-decade highs near 159.15. The trade is to fade crowded shorts in Nasdaq and Yen while selling AUD on weak data. The risk is a surprise dovish signal from the Fed, triggering a rapid unwinding of USD longs.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 11:30 AEST AUD: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
    • 08:30 ET CAD: CPI m/m (forecast 0.7%, prior 0.9%)
    • 10:00 ET USD: Pending Home Sales m/m (forecast 1.0%, prior 1.5%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Higher
      • Domestic (US): US yields climbing; hawkish Fed repricing.
      • Cross: Safe-haven demand, global uncertainty boosting USD.
      • Levels: Support 119.00, Resistance 119.50.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (EU): Dovish ECB outlook weighing on the Euro.
      • Cross: DXY strength, US-DE 10Y widening.
      • Levels: Support 1.1600, Resistance 1.1700.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (UK): BoE reluctance, claimant count.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk off sentiment, US-UK 10Y.
      • Levels: Support 1.2450, Resistance 1.2550.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Higher
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ remains dovish; intervention risk grows.
      • Cross: US 10Y surging, DXY strength amplifying the move.
      • Levels: Support 158.50, Resistance 160.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Higher
      • Domestic (CA): CPI miss will trigger BOC dovish repricing.
      • Cross: DXY strength, watching US-CA 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.3700, Resistance 1.3750.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (AU): RBA cautious, meeting minutes confirm dovish stance.
      • Cross: DXY strength, China growth concerns.
      • Levels: Support 0.6600, Resistance 0.6650.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ easing bias entrenched.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 0.5800, Resistance 0.5850.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Higher
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response
      • Cross: DXY strength, safe-haven flows supporting.
      • Levels: Support 0.7850, Resistance 0.7900.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: sideways, EUR/JPY: higher, GBP/JPY: higher
      • Domestic: Relative hawkish BoE to ECB; JPY still dovish.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion affecting the crosses.
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: 0.8500-0.8550, EUR/JPY: 170.00-171.00, GBP/JPY: 193.50-194.50.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields weighing on gold.
      • Cross: DXY strength.
      • Levels: Support $4,520, Resistance $4,560.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand mixed, gold ratio flat.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support $31.00, Resistance $32.00.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Sideways
      • Domestic (asset-specific): US-Iran talks weighing.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion muted.
      • Levels: WTI: $100-103, Brent: $108-112.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth worries, LME stock build.
      • Cross: DXY strength, global growth proxy weak.
      • Levels: Support $4.80, Resistance $4.90.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (US): Rising yields, earnings season fades.
      • Cross: Elevated VIX, global risk concerns.
      • Levels: Futures support 5280, resistance 5300.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (US): Rising real yields pressuring valuations.
      • Cross: Rate sensitivity elevated, VIX concerns.
      • Levels: Support 19,300, Resistance 19,400.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (US): Earnings less supportive, cyclicals under pressure.
      • Cross: Bond yield reaction negative.
      • Levels: Support 39,800, Resistance 40,000.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Sideways
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling strength offsetting global weakness.
      • Cross: Global risk tone, US weakness.
      • Levels: Support 8,350, Resistance 8,400.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Sideways
      • Domestic (DE): German HICP eases, no bullish trigger.
      • Cross: US tech weakness, DXY strength.
      • Levels: Support 24,500, Resistance 24,600.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Lower
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness hurting profitability.
      • Cross: US tech weak; no clear up catalyst.
      • Levels: Support 60,000, Resistance 61,000.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Sideways
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flow slowing, mixed on-chain data.
      • Cross: DXY strength, Nasdaq correlation weighing.
      • Levels: Support $66,000, Resistance $67,000.

    Positioning watch: Crowded longs in AUD (98th percentile) and Copper (98th percentile) expose these assets to significant downside risk if China economic data disappoints or trade tensions escalate. Crowded shorts in Nasdaq (0th percentile) face a squeeze risk if yields drop.

    The pain trade: A surprise dovish turn by the Fed, sparked by weak US data, would trigger a rapid unwinding of USD longs and a rally in equities, catching crowded shorts offside.

  • Gold Under Pressure as Real Yields Climb – Tuesday, 19 May

    Where we are: Gold is currently trading near $4,545, slightly below yesterday’s close, after a choppy overnight session. Bullion has given back some of yesterday’s gains as rising real yields continue to weigh. The metal is struggling to break above resistance at $4,560, with immediate support around $4,530.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver for Gold remains the upward pressure from rising US real yields. The 10-year TIPS yield climbed 10 basis points to 2.1% (as of May 15th), creating a significant headwind for the non-yielding asset. While breakeven inflation edged down 1 basis point to 2.48%, it wasn’t enough to offset the real yield move. We are seeing no fresh signals from central bank speakers today or any domestic catalyst and therefore the price action is driven by broader macroeconomic forces.

    • US 10Y Real Yield (TIPS): 2.1% (+10.0bp d/d, as of 2026-05-15)
    • 10Y Breakeven Inflation: 2.48% (-1.0bp d/d, as of 2026-05-18)
    • Speculator Positioning (CFTC, Gold, week of 2026-05-12T00:00:00.000): Net non-commercial: +171,622 contracts (+8,319 w/w, 29th %ile (52w)), indicating there is still room for further downside if positioning moves against Gold.

    NY session focus: Today’s Pending Home Sales data at 10:00 ET will offer some insight into the housing market, but it’s unlikely to be a major catalyst for Gold unless it significantly deviates from the 1.0% forecast. Keep a close eye on the 10-year yield throughout the session; further increases will likely push Gold lower, potentially testing the $4,520 level. The trade that’s working right now is fading rallies toward $4,560. The pain trade would be a sudden reversal in real yields driven by a dovish surprise.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Monday, 18 May

    Regime: Risk-off, driven by rising real yields as 10Y TIPS push above 2% and oil climbs to $105, pressuring equities.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Real-yield repricing and inflation fears weighing on risk assets.
    • Geopolitical tensions in Middle East adding to oil supply concerns.
    • Watch for signs of USD/JPY intervention as pair tests 159.

    The setup: Rising real yields are the dominant driver, pressuring risk assets. Focus on the US 10Y TIPS yield, currently at 2%, as it sets the tone. A break above 2.1% could trigger further equity sell-off and dollar strength. Trade: short SPX futures, stop above 5300. Risk: surprising dovish Fed commentary.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET US Retail Sales (m/m) Forecast: 0.4%, Prior: 0.7%
    • 10:00 ET US NAHB Housing Market Index Prior: 51
    • 11:00 CET ECB President Lagarde Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Hawkish Fed rhetoric, rising US yields
      • Cross: Risk-off sentiment, safe-haven demand
      • Levels: Support 117.80 / Resistance 118.30
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (EU): Weak German data, dovish ECB comments
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, widening US-DE 10Y yield spread
      • Levels: Support 1.0800 / Resistance 1.0850
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (UK): Cautious BoE stance, weak data prints
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk-off flows
      • Levels: Support 1.2550 / Resistance 1.2620
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ dovish, rising JGB yields, intervention watch
      • Cross: Rising US 10Y, DXY strength, risk-off
      • Levels: Support 158.50 / Resistance 159.00
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): BoC holds, CPI is soft, rangebound
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, US-CA 10Y spread widening
      • Levels: Support 1.3650 / Resistance 1.3700
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (AU): Hawkish RBA stance but crowded long positioning
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, weaker China growth, US-AU spread
      • Levels: Support 0.7050 / Resistance 0.7120
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ easing bias, weakening economic momentum
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk aversion, US-NZ yield divergence
      • Levels: Support 0.5800 / Resistance 0.5850
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB neutral, CPI contained
      • Cross: DXY strength, safe-haven unwinding
      • Levels: Support 0.7800 / Resistance 0.7850
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP Neutral, EUR/JPY Bearish, GBP/JPY Neutral
      • Domestic: Diverging central bank policies, relative yield spreads
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk regime dynamics
      • Levels: EUR/GBP 0.8500-0.8550, EUR/JPY 169.50-170.50, GBP/JPY 192.00-193.00
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields, soft CB demand
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk-off environment
      • Levels: Support $4,500 / Resistance $4,550
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Weaker industrial demand, high Gold-Silver ratio
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk aversion
      • Levels: Support $30.00 / Resistance $31.00
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Tight supply, geopolitics, rising demand
      • Cross: Risk-off, inflation hedge
      • Levels: WTI Support $100 / Resistance $105
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Weak China, rising LME stocks
      • Cross: DXY strength, global growth concerns
      • Levels: Support $5.00 / Resistance $5.10
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Rising yields, Fed outlook
      • Cross: VIX elevated, global risk-off
      • Levels: Futures 5285, support 5250, resistance 5300 cash
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Real yields pressure valuations
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity, VIX
      • Levels: Support 18,100 / Resistance 18,300
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Earnings cyclical concerns, yields
      • Cross: Bond-yield reaction
      • Levels: Support 39,700 / Resistance 40,000
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): Mixed data, Gilt yields
      • Cross: Global risk, US tone
      • Levels: Support 8,400 / Resistance 8,450
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (DE): Weak German data, rising Bund yields
      • Cross: US tech, DXY, risk regime
      • Levels: Support 23,600 / Resistance 23,800
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (JP): Strong JPY, rising JGB yields, BoJ stance
      • Cross: US tech, risk regime
      • Levels: Support 60,500 / Resistance 61,000
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF outflows
      • Cross: DXY, risk regime, Nasdaq correlation
      • Levels: Support $60,000 / Resistance $62,000

    Positioning watch: AUD and Copper are crowded long at >98th percentile, creating significant squeeze risk if US data surprises to the upside or China stimulus disappoints. Nasdaq is crowded short at the 0th percentile, vulnerable to a rally.

    The pain trade: A dovish surprise from a Fed speaker would ignite a risk rally, squeezing crowded short positions in Nasdaq and causing dollar weakness.

  • Gold Struggles as Real Yields Climb – Monday, 18 May

    Where we are: Gold is trading around $4,545, modestly above the overnight low, but still under pressure after last week’s nearly 4% decline. The yellow metal remains below key resistance at $4,560 and is struggling to gain traction ahead of the US open. The range has been relatively tight so far this morning, with some tentative buying interest emerging around the $4,540 level.

    What’s driving it: Rising US real yields continue to exert downward pressure on gold. The 10-year TIPS yield edged up to 2%, adding to the headwinds for bullion as investors demand higher returns from risk-free assets. While breakeven inflation also ticked up to 2.49%, the real yield move is the dominant driver. Absent fresh domestic catalysts, gold is beholden to this real rate dynamic for now.

    • US 10Y Real Yield at 2% (+1.0bp d/d) continues to climb, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
    • 10Y Breakeven Inflation also increased, up 2.0bp d/d, but the nominal yield increase is overshadowing this move.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial positions are modestly long at +171,622 contracts, offering little support against the broader trend.

    NY session focus: All eyes will be on the US data releases later this week, but for today, the market will likely remain focused on yield dynamics. Watch for the 10-year real yield to potentially test 2.05%; a break above that could trigger another leg lower in gold. Key support to watch is around $4,530. The trade at risk is any long position predicated on geopolitical risk, which seems to be fading somewhat. The pain trade is a sharp reversal in real yields, driven by a dovish surprise, which could trigger a rapid short squeeze.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Friday, 15 May

    Regime: Risk-off, driven by rising oil prices and inflation worries spooking bond markets, pushing US 2Y yields to 3.98%.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Oil supply scare: Strait of Hormuz tensions driving WTI above $104, fueling inflation concerns.
    • Global bond selloff: Rising oil and inflation fears triggering broad-based bond yield increases.
    • USD strength: Dollar continues to rally on Fed hike expectations, nearing best week since March.

    The setup: Oil supply disruptions are the dominant driver, pushing inflation expectations higher and triggering a global bond selloff. The trade is to fade equity rallies, especially in growth names, as real yields rise. Risk is a de-escalation in Middle East tensions, sending oil and yields lower.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET US PPI (Prior: +0.2%)
    • 10:00 ET US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prior: 77.2)
    • 15:00 CET ECB’s Lagarde speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Hawkish Fed bets, resilient US data, rising US yields.
      • Cross: Global risk aversion, flight to safety, EUR/USD weakness.
      • Levels: Support 98.50, Resistance 99.50
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (EU): Dovish ECB, persistent inflation challenges, peripheral stress.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, widening US-DE 10Y yield spread, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 1.1600, Resistance 1.1700
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (UK): BoE hawkishness priced in, potential for dovish repricing, Gilt underperformance.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, widening US-UK 10Y yield spread, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 1.3350, Resistance 1.3450
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ remains dovish, intervention threat looms, JGBs constrained.
      • Cross: Rising US 10Y yield, strong DXY, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 157.50, Resistance 158.50
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): BoC’s cautious stance, CPI remains elevated, sensitive to oil price swings.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, widening US-CA 10Y yield spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.3650, Resistance 1.3750
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (AU): RBA reluctance to tighten aggressively, iron ore price concerns.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, China slowdown fears, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 0.7150, Resistance 0.7250
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ easing bias firmly entrenched, Dairy prices remain weak.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 0.5800, Resistance 0.5900
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB likely to maintain dovish stance, moderate Swiss yields.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk aversion driving safe-haven flows out of CHF.
      • Levels: Support 0.7800, Resistance 0.7900
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Bearish, EUR/JPY: Bearish, GBP/JPY: Neutral
      • Domestic: BoE remains relatively more hawkish than ECB/BoJ, yield divergence supports GBP.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion, cross-of-crosses flows impacting correlations.
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: R: 0.8550 S: 0.8500; EUR/JPY: R: 171.00 S: 170.50; GBP/JPY: R: 193.00 S: 192.50
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields, lower breakevens weighing on gold.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk-off sentiment limited support.
      • Levels: Support $4,575, Resistance $4,600
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Weak industrial demand, Gold-Silver ratio trending higher.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk aversion exacerbating downside.
      • Levels: Support $4,450, Resistance $4,500
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Strait of Hormuz tensions, potential supply disruptions, inventories tight.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY providing some offset to risk-off flows.
      • Levels: WTI: S: $102, R: $105; Brent: S: $106, R: $109
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth concerns, LME stocks elevated, supply outlook improving.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk-off sentiment weighing on industrial metals.
      • Levels: Support $9,800, Resistance $10,000
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Rising real yields, concerns about future earnings growth.
      • Cross: Elevated VIX, global risk-off sentiment weighing on equities.
      • Levels: Futures: Support 5220, Resistance 5280
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Real yield sensitivity, mega-cap valuations stretched, AI hype fading.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity, elevated VIX indicating heightened volatility.
      • Levels: Support 19500, Resistance 19700
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Concerns about future earnings growth, pressure on cyclical sectors.
      • Cross: Rising bond yields impacting valuations.
      • Levels: Support 39500, Resistance 40000
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (UK): Stronger Sterling weighing, Gilt yields rising, commodity sector under pressure.
      • Cross: Global risk aversion, US tone dragging on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 8350, Resistance 8400
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (DE): Rising Bund yields, weak IFO/ZEW survey data, EU growth concerns.
      • Cross: US tech weakness, DXY strength, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 24100, Resistance 24300
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (JP): Stronger JPY weighing, BoJ under pressure to act, JGB yield curve flattening.
      • Cross: US tech weakness, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 38500, Resistance 39000
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Elevated funding rates, ETF flows slowing, on-chain metrics mixed.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk aversion, Nasdaq correlation weighing on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support $61,000, Resistance $63,000

    Positioning watch: AUD and Bitcoin are crowded longs (>95th percentile) vulnerable to disappointment if risk aversion intensifies or data disappoints, creating squeeze risk. JPY is a crowded short (<15th percentile) and could rally hard if the BoJ surprises or intervention occurs.

    The pain trade: A de-escalation in Middle East tensions, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices and a rally in risk assets, would hurt crowded short positions in bonds and crowded long positions in the dollar.

  • Gold Plunges on Rate-Hike Bets; More Pain Ahead – Friday, 15 May

    Where we are: Gold is currently trading around $4,585, testing overnight lows, after a significant drop overnight saw bullion shed 2%. The slide positions gold to fall roughly 3% for the week, and breaks through the $4,600 handle, a key support level we have been watching closely. The move wipes out gains from earlier in the week, leaving it below the prior NY close of $4,650.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver remains the recalibration of Fed rate-cut expectations, fueled by stubbornly high US inflation. Rising US real yields and a stronger dollar are sapping gold’s appeal as a safe haven and inflation hedge, particularly after US wholesale and consumer prices both surprised to the upside. Adding to the pressure, news of further tightening of gold import regulations by India is weighing on physical demand, reflected in soaring discounts in the Asian market. While Fed officials Barr and Bowman both spoke yesterday, neither offered explicit guidance on the path forward for rates.

    • US 2Y yield sits at 3.98%, down 2bp d/d but still elevated, keeping pressure on non-yielding assets like gold.
    • India gold discounts soar to record high, reflecting impact of import duty hike and diminished demand.
    • Speculator positioning remains modestly long (+163,303 contracts) but at a relatively low percentile (21st), suggesting limited short-squeeze potential, but more room to add to shorts.

    NY session focus: Watch the 08:30 ET US data releases closely for any further surprises on the inflation front; stronger-than-expected prints will solidify the rate-hike narrative and could send gold spiraling towards $4,550. Conversely, a downside surprise could trigger a relief rally, pushing gold back towards $4,620. The Goldman Sachs call for energy stock strength could also translate into commodity complex strength. The trade that’s working right now is short XAU/USD, while the at-risk trade is holding long positions. The pain trade would be a dovish pivot from the Fed fueled by a sharp deceleration in inflation, catching the market off guard and triggering a rapid short squeeze.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Thursday, 14 May

    Regime: Mixed; VIX at 17.99 with US yields rising slightly and the DXY consolidating gains around 118.15 indicates a tentative risk-neutral stance.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Trump-Xi meeting impact: assessing US-China trade and oil relationship, especially regarding Iran sanctions.
    • US Retail Sales: markets are awaiting direction with Retail Sales release.
    • Crowded trades: the market is set up for a potential short squeeze, with several currencies and asset classes showing heavily skewed positioning.

    The setup: Traders are positioned for USD strength and are short GBP, JPY, and NZD. US retail sales data will be key to either confirming this bias or triggering a squeeze. Watch US 10Y yields; sustained move above 4.5% could exacerbate USD strength.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 07:00 London GBP: GDP m/m (forecast -0.1%, prior 0.5%)
    • 08:30 ET USD: Core Retail Sales m/m (forecast 0.7%, prior 1.9%)
    • 08:30 ET USD: Retail Sales m/m (forecast 0.5%, prior 1.7%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (US): Data dependent on Retail Sales, Fed policy on inflation.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment / global growth outlook drive flows
      • Levels: Support 117.80 / Resistance 118.30
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (EU): ECB rhetoric, EU data release sensitive to global narrative.
      • Cross: DXY strength, US-DE 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.1680 / Resistance 1.1740
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (UK): GDP print spurring rate cut bets, Gilt yield declines.
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-UK 10Y widening
      • Levels: Support 1.2450 / Resistance 1.2520
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ’s hawkish tone not enough to combat carry demand.
      • Cross: US 10Y strength / risk-on / intervention watch
      • Levels: Support 157.50 / Resistance 158.00
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): BoC policy path, oil price fluctuations are the driver.
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-CA 10Y differential.
      • Levels: Support 1.3680 / Resistance 1.3740
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (AU): RBA policy path / key commodity prices affecting sentiment.
      • Cross: DXY correlation, China growth, US-AU 10Y
      • Levels: Support 0.7170 / Resistance 0.7230
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ dovish stance is the driver.
      • Cross: DXY direction, Risk / US-NZ 10Y
      • Levels: Support 0.5900 / Resistance 0.5950
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB’s easing policy stance.
      • Cross: DXY strength, safe-haven demand fluctuation.
      • Levels: Support 0.7800 / Resistance 0.7850
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP Neutral, EUR/JPY Neutral, GBP/JPY Bearish
      • Domestic: Rate spreads/relative central bank stance
      • Cross: Risk, cross-of-crosses
      • Levels: Watch relative breaks; range trades
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields are the driver.
      • Cross: DXY influence, risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 4670 / Resistance 4700
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Gold-Silver ratio influences direction.
      • Cross: DXY influence, risk correlation.
      • Levels: Support 30.40 / Resistance 30.70
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Supply/demand influences, WTI-Brent Spread affects trend.
      • Cross: DXY influence, risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 100.50 / Resistance 102.50
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth outlook is the main driver.
      • Cross: Global growth sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 5.00 / Resistance 5.10
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Earnings, Fed policy influences market direction.
      • Cross: Risk regime, Global Tone, yields correlation.
      • Levels: Futures level Support 5330 / Resistance 5350.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap earnings are a major factor.
      • Cross: Rates / Volatility (VIX).
      • Levels: Support 18,750 / Resistance 18,850
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Industrial / Financial earnings support this.
      • Cross: Bond yield / overall market tone affecting direction.
      • Levels: Support 50,000 / Resistance 50,250
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): Domestic-centric influences such as Sterling performance.
      • Cross: Market Sentiment / US tone impacting direction.
      • Levels: Support 8,400 / Resistance 8,450
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (DE): Domestic sentiment and yields.
      • Cross: US tech impacts, DXY correlation.
      • Levels: Support 24,350 / Resistance 24,450
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): JPY impacts, BOJ policy stance.
      • Cross: US tech influence, global risk factors.
      • Levels: Support 38,800 / Resistance 39,200
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flow / on-chain metrics drive direction.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment & Nasdaq performance impact.
      • Levels: Support 61,500 / Resistance 62,500

    Positioning watch: AUD/USD, Copper, and Bitcoin are crowded longs, creating squeeze risk if data disappoints; GBP, JPY, and NZD are crowded shorts, vulnerable to upside surprises. CFTC shows dollar index positioning very stretched.

    The pain trade: A dovish tilt from the Fed combined with strong UK data and a resolution of Iran tensions would trigger a massive short squeeze in GBP, JPY, NZD, Gold, and rates.

  • Gold Under Pressure as Real Yields Climb – Thursday, 14 May

    Where we are: Spot gold trades near $4,690, consolidating after a slight pullback in European hours. Overnight range has been contained, and the price is just below yesterday’s New York close. Bullion remains below the key $4,700 resistance level, struggling to gain upward traction.

    What’s driving it: Rising US real yields continue to exert downward pressure on gold. The 10-year TIPS yield is up 4bp to 1.99%, making the non-yielding precious metal less attractive. While breakeven inflation remains steady, the widening gap between nominal and real yields favors holding bonds over bullion. The lack of progress on trade between the US and China and concerns around the Iran conflict, traditionally supportive for gold, are being overshadowed by the stronger-for-longer narrative in US monetary policy.

    • US 10Y Real Yield rising 4bp to 1.99% puts further pressure on gold price.
    • Gold discounts in India are breaching $200/ounce as profit-taking accelerates.
    • Speculator positioning in gold remains modestly long, but not at an extreme, minimizing the risk of a short squeeze.

    NY session focus: All eyes are on the 08:30 ET release of US Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims. Strong prints could reinforce the hawkish Fed outlook and trigger another leg higher in real yields, pushing gold lower. Key levels to watch are $4,675 as initial support and $4,700 as immediate resistance. The trade that’s working is shorting gold on rallies, while the trade at risk is expecting a significant bounce without a dovish surprise from the data. The pain trade would be a weaker-than-expected Retail Sales number, prompting a real-yield correction and a short-covering rally in gold.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Wednesday, 13 May

    Regime: Mixed — VIX holding near 18.40 amid rising US real yields, capping risk appetite.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Real-rate repricing: Fed nomination vote and PPI data set to dictate the pace of the climb, pressuring gold and growth stocks.
    • Iran War Impact: Ongoing supply disruptions and inventory depletion boosting oil prices, triggering inventory concerns.
    • Crowded FX positions: Extreme positioning in AUD, NZD, JPY and GBP presents squeeze risks on data surprises.

    The setup: Rising real yields are the dominant force. Focus is on US PPI and the Fed nomination vote today to further define the Fed’s path. Watch for a continued bid in US yields to pressure equities and gold, with DXY bid into the European open. Key is whether 10Y TIPS break 2.00%.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET USD: Core PPI m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.1%)
    • 08:30 ET USD: PPI m/m (forecast 0.5%, prior 0.5%)
    • 14:30 ET USD: Fed Chair Nomination Vote (forecast Pass, prior —)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Strong US data supports hawkish Fed, boosting USD.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows and rising US yields underpin the dollar.
      • Levels: Support 117.80, Resistance 118.50.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (EU): Eurozone growth concerns and relatively dovish ECB weigh on EUR.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and widening US-DE yield spread pressure EUR/USD.
      • Levels: Support 1.0760, Resistance 1.0820.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (UK): BoE easing expectations, pressured by persistent inflation, weigh on the Pound.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and widening US-UK yield spread pressure Cable.
      • Levels: Support 1.2460, Resistance 1.2520.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ still dovish relative to Fed; intervention risk lingers.
      • Cross: Higher US yields drive USD/JPY higher despite intervention risks.
      • Levels: Support 157.75, Resistance 158.50.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): WTI price volatility offsets CAD strength from BoC rate cuts.
      • Cross: USD strength and widening US-CA yield spreads favor upside.
      • Levels: Support 1.3650, Resistance 1.3700.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (AU): RBA easing expectations and weak CPI growth weigh on AUD.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and risk-off sentiment hurt the Aussie.
      • Levels: Support 0.7175, Resistance 0.7225.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ dovishness and concerns about domestic demand hurt the Kiwi.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and risk-off sentiment weigh on NZD/USD.
      • Levels: Support 0.5900, Resistance 0.5950.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB intervention unlikely; Swiss yields remain low.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows less supportive with strong USD driving gains.
      • Levels: Support 0.7800, Resistance 0.7850.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral, EUR/JPY: Bullish, GBP/JPY: Bullish
      • Domestic: Relative CB stance — BoE slightly more hawkish than ECB. BoJ lags both.
      • Cross: DXY strength benefiting JPY crosses, risk tone dictates flows.
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: 0.8510-0.8560, EUR/JPY: 169.00-170.00, GBP/JPY: 192.80-193.80
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields are a significant headwind.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and risk-off environment further pressure Gold.
      • Levels: Support $4,675, Resistance $4,725.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand is soft, Gold/Silver ratio rising.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and risk-off environment weigh on Silver.
      • Levels: Support $29.00, Resistance $29.50.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): IEA reports record draw in global oil inventories due to Iran War.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment generally supportive, but DXY strength a cap.
      • Levels: WTI Support $101.00, Resistance $103.00.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth concerns resurface, LME stocks remain high.
      • Cross: Global growth worries and DXY strength pressure Copper.
      • Levels: Support $5.00, Resistance $5.10.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Higher yields weigh on valuations, focus on earnings.
      • Cross: VIX spikes indicate potential for further downside risk.
      • Levels: Futures support 5200, resistance 5250 (cash: key levels to use).
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap tech vulnerable to higher real yields.
      • Cross: High rate sensitivity amplifies downside in risk-off environment.
      • Levels: Support 19,500, Resistance 19,700.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical sector earnings sensitive to rising yields.
      • Cross: Bond yield reaction to data key driver of Dow performance.
      • Levels: Support 39,000, Resistance 39,500.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling strength offsetting positive global risk sentiment.
      • Cross: Global risk appetite supports, but US tone a key determinant.
      • Levels: Support 8350, Resistance 8400.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields stable; focus on EU sentiment indicators.
      • Cross: US tech performance influences DAX, DXY strength is a cap.
      • Levels: Support 24,000, Resistance 24,100.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness supports, BoJ policy stance is key.
      • Cross: US tech performance and risk-on sentiment drive Nikkei.
      • Levels: Support 63,000, Resistance 63,500.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Funding rates remain elevated, ETF flows slowing.
      • Cross: DXY strength and risk-off sentiment hurt Bitcoin. Nasdaq correlation matters.
      • Levels: Support $62,000, Resistance $63,000.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded longs in AUD, Copper, and Bitcoin (above 80th percentile), vulnerable to a squeeze on any downside surprises. Crowded shorts in GBP, JPY and NZD present an upside risk.

    The pain trade: A surprise dovish tilt from the Fed on the nomination vote or a much weaker-than-expected PPI print would trigger a short squeeze in crowded USD shorts and boost risk assets, especially the crowded AUD/USD longs.

  • Gold Under Pressure as Real Yields Climb – Wednesday, 13 May

    Where we are: Gold is trading near $4,700 an ounce as the New York session prepares to open, pressured by rising real yields. The precious metal failed to hold overnight gains following reports of increased Indian import tariffs. The move lower has broken intraday support at $4,710 and is now testing the $4,690 level. Prior NY close was near $4,720.

    What’s driving it: Rising US real yields are the primary headwind for gold. The 10Y TIPS yield is currently at 1.95%, having risen 2bp since Monday. The unchanged 10Y breakeven inflation rate at 2.47% further underscores the pressure from real rates, as inflation expectations are not keeping pace. News that India has more than doubled tariffs on gold imports will curb physical demand and support the rupee.

    • Reuters reported overnight that gold fell as hot US inflation data diminish rate cut bets.
    • India hikes bullion import duties as the world’s second-largest gold market faces a declining rupee — CNBC.
    • Speculative positioning remains modestly long, with net non-commercial positions at +163,303 contracts, at the 21st percentile.

    NY session focus: All eyes will be on the 08:30 ET release of US PPI data. A higher-than-forecast print (0.5% headline, 0.3% core) will likely further boost real yields and exacerbate the downward pressure on gold. Focus will shift to the Fed Chair Nomination Vote at 14:30 ET. Key levels to watch are $4,680 (support) and $4,720 (resistance). The short gold/long real yields trade remains the favoured play. The pain trade would be a surprise dovish turn from the Fed causing real yields to plummet.