Where we are: Bitcoin is trading around $61,200, consolidating after an overnight dip to $60,500. This is slightly below yesterday’s NY close, and the price action remains choppy. We are seeing muted trading in the run-up to the US data releases.
What’s driving it: Bitcoin’s immediate direction is unclear. Funding rates on Binance are balanced, suggesting neither excessive bullishness nor bearishness amongst leveraged traders. We await fresh catalysts in the form of ETF flow data and on-chain activity to provide better directional guidance. The broader macro backdrop is weighing on sentiment, with rising real yields in the US creating a headwind for risk assets like Bitcoin.
- US 10Y Real Yield: Increased by 4.0bp to 1.96% on 2026-04-29, diminishing Bitcoin’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
- Speculator Positioning: Net non-commercial positioning at the 90th percentile indicates a crowded long, raising the risk of a squeeze.
- Political Flag: Watchdog weighing investigation into Farage’s undisclosed £5m gift is a possible negative news item for BTC given it’s perceived association with populism and the alt-right.
NY session focus: All eyes will be on the 10:00 ET ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid releases. Strong prints are likely to push US yields higher, putting further pressure on Bitcoin. Key levels to watch are $60,000 as immediate support and $62,000 as resistance. The trade that’s working is fading rallies into resistance. The trade at risk is dip-buying given the crowded long positioning. The pain trade is a sustained break above $62,000 triggering a short squeeze.