Where we are: Bitcoin currently trades around $69,750, consolidating gains from the weekend. Overnight range has been relatively narrow, between $69,200 and $70,100. This puts it slightly above Friday’s New York close, but still below last week’s highs near $71,000.
What’s driving it: The immediate driver for BTC remains uncertain, pending confirmation of spot ETF net flows later today. The balanced Binance BTCUSDT perp funding rate suggests no strong directional bias from leveraged traders right now. The tether announcement to launch a Georgian Lari stablecoin offers a modest tailwind, as it potentially expands the use cases of stablecoins, which are critical for BTC liquidity. The broader macro backdrop is mixed: rising US real yields pose a headwind for gold and potentially BTC, but a slightly steeper 2s10s spread suggests some easing of recession fears.
- Tether’s launch of a Georgian Lari stablecoin, signaling continued expansion into new markets
- CFTC data showing net non-commercial positioning at the 90th percentile, raising squeeze risk.
- US 10Y Real Yield rising 5bp last week to 2.18%, a negative sign for BTC.
NY session focus: Watch for the Farside scrape of spot BTC ETF flows, which will be a key catalyst. Initial support sits around $68,500, with resistance near $70,500. Look for a potential break above $70,500 to trigger further upside towards $72,000. The Logan Paul Pokemon card sale highlights the continued, albeit niche, cross-over between crypto and collectibles. The pain trade here is a failure to hold $68,500, leading to a cascade of long liquidations given the crowded positioning.