Snapshot: WTI crude has steadied near $77.00 per barrel, but remains on track for a bruising 10% weekly decline as physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz fluctuate. The halting of outbound Persian Gulf tankers this morning and the sudden delay of US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland have deflated earlier optimism of a durable supply recovery. This geopolitical stalemate is keeping the tape highly volatile ahead of the NY open, with the downside pressure amplified by a rising VIX at 18.44.
- Flow Bottlenecks: Physical supply signals are highly mixed; while Thursday saw nearly 10 million barrels transit the strait, today’s complete lack of outbound Persian Gulf vessels signals immediate bottlenecking.
- Squeeze Risk: Net non-commercial longs were trimmed by 25,573 contracts to +130,301, leaving positioning at a modest 52nd percentile; a sustained breakdown in Swiss diplomatic channels risks triggering further liquidation below $76.50.
Bias into NY: Tactical bearish bias targeting $75.80 on WTI, as the diplomatic impasse and halted tanker flows erode the risk premium accumulated over the last three months.