Snapshot: The Aussie remains pinned below the 0.7050 mark, capping a weak week as the RBA’s reluctance to ease clashes with deteriorating global risk sentiment. While Governor Bullock is holding the cash rate at 4.10% due to uneven services inflation and a tight labor market, the lack of fresh local data leaves the currency defenseless against external flows.
- The RBA’s hawkish hold at 4.10% provides a high-yielding floor, but we need a clean Q1 trimmed-mean CPI print to realistically shift the policy dial.
- Geopolitical escalations in the Middle East have aborted US-Iran peace talks, fueling a 12.37% spike in the VIX to 18.44 and punishing high-beta FX.
Bias into NY: We favor shorting rallies toward 0.7060, targeting a break below 0.7020. The RBA’s domestic yield support is currently eclipsed by a 15 bp surge in US 2-year yields to 4.2% and escalating safe-haven demand.