Snapshot: GBP/JPY trades firmly near 202.40 (+0.35%), underpinned by the recent tick up in UK Core CPI to 2.6% and resilient domestic demand from this morning’s retail sales print. This keeps the BoE’s cautious 8-1 stance firmly intact ahead of the May meeting, with the wide policy differential easily overriding the BoJ’s slow normalisation path at 0.50%.
- Key Level: Rigid UK services CPI near 5% and solid 07:00 BST retail sales protect the downside, making the 201.80 support zone a strong buy on dips with eyes on 203.00.
- NY Watch-Item: Verbal intervention risk from Tokyo remains elevated as yen weakness extends, while a sharp spike in the VIX (currently 18.44) before the NY bell represents the main execution risk for carry-trade bulls.
Bias into NY: Bullish bias targeting 203.20, as resilient UK wages and the BoE’s reluctance to commit to a cut path support the pound, with secondary global yield adjustments doing little to disrupt the carry advantage.