Snapshot: The Aussie is battling to defend the key 0.7000 handle, solidly backstopped by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s restrictive 4.10% cash rate and Governor Bullock’s warnings on uneven services inflation. This domestic hawkishness keeps local yields supported even as risk assets digest a massive 4.5% collapse in WTI crude overnight, with all eyes now on the US economic data docket at 08:30 ET.
- Key levels: Solid bids are clustering around 0.6980, where the RBA’s reluctance to commit to an easing cycle limits the downside, even after speculators shaved over 23k long contracts last week.
- NY session risk: A high-side print on the Philly Fed index (forecast 9.8) at 08:30 ET could trigger a late-session dollar charge, testing commodity-beta resilience as the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
Bias into NY: Structurally bullish above 0.6980 for a tactical target of 0.7040, as domestic yield support should ultimately limit losses from any short-term USD strength driven by the US data print.