Snapshot: US Crude has plunged below the $75 per barrel mark to its lowest level since March, as an interim US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz triggers a massive supply-side relief trade. This structural supply normalization completely overrides yesterday’s hawkish economic projections from the FOMC, with physical flows returning as Saudi and LNG tankers resume transit. Traders are now prepping for US demand signals via the 08:30 ET Philly Fed and Jobless Claims prints.
- Cushing inventories remain critical at just 20 million barrels, providing a tight physical backstop that should limit further near-term downside below $73.50.
- A hotter-than-expected Philly Fed print at 08:30 ET poses the risk of a dollar-driven squeeze, forcing further liquidation from the modestly long +130k spec cohort.
Bias into NY: Bearish below $75.00 targeting $73.50, as the resumption of Gulf shipping flows dominates the tape, though a soft US 10Y real yield at 2.14% may cushion the broader descent.